Final Navy vs Memphis Prediction, Prop Bets & Updated Betting Line

• Memphis is a 3.5-point favorite over Navy tonight in American Conference play
• The Midshipmen’s offense boasts a 12.7% explosive play rate this season
• See my final Navy vs Memphis prediction, plus my favorite prop bets and the updated betting line

The NFL isn’t the only football on the Thanksgiving menu, as Navy (8-2, 6-1 American) visits Memphis (8-3, 4-3 American) tonight. Online sportsbooks are siding with the Tigers in the latest college football odds, but the line has been moving towards the Midshipmen all week.

Kickoff is set for 7:30pm ET from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, in Memphis, TN, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my final Navy vs Memphis prediction, plus my favorite prop bets and the updated betting line for tonight’s contest.

Final Navy vs Memphis Prediction

I’m following the line move ahead of this matchup and backing the Midshipmen. Navy opened as a 5.5-point underdog, but that number has since dropped to 3.5. Memphis’ form and defensive struggles have a lot to do with the Midshipmen love, as the Tigers are fresh off back-to-back losses.

Memphis has surrendered at least 31 points in four of their last five outings, which includes an embarassing loss to UAB as 24.5-point favorites. The Tigers enter play ranked 44th in scoring defense, 72nd in yards per play and 81st in opponent third down conversion rate. On paper, those numbers don’t seem outrageous, but it’s important to note they’ve faced only two teams ranked inside the top-60 this season, and four programs ranked in the top-98.

Memphis Defensive Stats

That spells trouble against Navy, who operate one of the most efficient offenses in the country. The Midshipmen rank 33rd in points per game, and sixth in yards per play. They lead the nation in rushing yards per game at a staggering 290.9, while ranking second in yards per carry.

Navy doesn’t pass often, but when they do good things happen. They’re averaging 10.1 yards per throw, the highest in the country, and are yielding a sack only 4.4% of dropbacks. Everyone on this team who touches the football is capable of generating chunk plays, which makes them extremely hard to game plan for.

The Midshipmen have a 12.7% explosive play rate, which is a top-five mark in college football. If not for a suspect defense, we might be talking about them as a possible CFP odds contender, but I’m betting they can overcome their defensive inefficiencies in this matchup.

It’s worth noting that starting QB Blake Horvath is dealing with multiple injuries, but if he’s limited at all Braxton Woodson has proven to be a capable replacement. He stepped in last week in Navy’s upset win over #24 South Florida, rushing for 103 yards and 2 TD, while throwing for another 39 yards.

On the other side of the ball, the Tigers just don’t look like the same team that started 6-0. They’ve dropped three of their last five games overall, with QB Brendon Lewis failing to throw a touchdown pass in two of those outings. The senior pivot has been sacked nine times in his last two starts, with at least one interception in both games.

Memphis is more efficient running the football than they are throwing it, but the way to attack Navy is through the air. They rank 126th in opponent yards per pass, compared to middle of the pack in yards per carry and rushing yards allowed.

Navy vs Memphis Prop Bets

Switching over to the college football player props market, where I’m betting over 49.5 receiving yards for Navy’s Eli Heidenreich. The senior is fresh off a 146 receiving yard performance, and enters play averaging 19.5 yards per catch.

The Midshipmen will lull defenses to sleep with their rushing attack and then when they least expect it, target Heidenreich for a big gain. He’s cleared this line in four of his past six games, and also boasts a 243 yard receiving game on his 2025 resume. The ceiling is immense, which is why I wouldn’t hate betting some of his escalator options as well.

Navy vs Memphis Updated Betting Line

As for the Navy vs Memphis updated betting line, the best place to back the Midshipmen against the spread is at BetMGM. They’re offering +3.5 at -105 odds, the lowest in market. Total-wise, the over under sits at 58.5, a line that feels low given the underwhelming defenses for both sides.

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Odds as of Nov. 27. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on college football.

Per the college football public betting trends, the over has hit in four straight Memphis games, while Midshipmen contests are 8-2 to the over this season.