Final Oklahoma vs Alabama Prediction & Closing Odds for Week 12

• Alabama looks for its first-ever regular-season win over Oklahoma
• Oklahoma’s CFP chances are at risk
• Read below for my Oklahoma vs Alabama prediction as well as the closing odds for this SEC battle

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The No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (7-2, 3-2 in the SEC) head to Tuscaloosa to face the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1, 6-0 in the SEC). Bryant-Denny Stadium will play host to a 3:30 PM ET kickoff on Saturday, Nov. 15. ABC will broadcast the game.

I have locked in my Oklahoma vs Alabama prediction below. I have also provided the closing odds for this ultra-important game when it comes to determining the College Football Playoff.

Oklahoma vs Alabama Prediction

• My Prediction: Alabama 24, Oklahoma 21

My Oklahoma vs Alabama prediction has the Crimson Tide winning 24-21 in what should be a defensive struggle. The Tide are 8-1 and undefeated in SEC play, but Oklahoma brings an elite defense that’s been holding opponents to just 14.1 points per game. This has all the makings of a grind-it-out SEC battle.

The key to this prediction is Alabama’s passing game versus Oklahoma’s pass rush. Ty Simpson has been lights out with 21 touchdowns and just one pick, but the Sooners can get after the quarterback with R Mason Thomas leading the charge. If Oklahoma can rattle Simpson and force him into mistakes, they’ll keep this one close. I’ve got the Tide pulling it out late at home.

Don’t sleep on the history here either. Alabama has never beaten Oklahoma in the regular season (0-3), and the Sooners embarrassed them 24-3 last year in Norman. Oklahoma needs this game to stay alive for the CFP, and John Mateer’s legs could give Alabama fits just like other mobile quarterbacks have this season. Still, I’ll take the Tide by a field goal in Tuscaloosa.

Oklahoma vs Alabama Pick

• Oklahoma +6.5

Why My Prediction Favors Oklahoma to Cover

• The only guarantees in life are death, taxes, and Alabama struggling against running quarterbacks. Four different quarterbacks have run for 50 or more yards versus the Tide this season. Alabama is 0-3 ATS in those games with an outright loss to Florida State. John Mateer has three 50-yard games this season and 12 in his career. He is a high-enough caliber rusher to keep Oklahoma within a touchdown, which factors into my prediction.
• Ty Simpson has been nothing short of unbelievable this season, but his rare struggles come on the handful of plays a week he is under pressure. When kept clean, Simpson has a 91.4 PFF passing grade on the season. When under duress, Simpson has a 48.3 PFF passing grade. Oklahoma offers an elite pass rush, spearheaded by future top-40 pick R Mason Thomas.
• Oklahoma allows a meager 14.1 points per game. Admittedly, this is boosted by their non-conference excellence, but the Sooners have allowed just Ole Miss to score more than 27 points this season. Alabama has a good offense, but their 32.8 points per game mark is propped up by a 73-point burst of rage versus UL Monroe.

Oklahoma Sooners Analysis

Oklahoma is back in the thick of the CFP race after winning a de facto CFP elimination game at Tennessee in their last game. At 7-2 with two conference losses, the Sooners almost certainly must win out (at Alabama, Missouri, LSU) to make the CFP. This prediction factors heavily into their must-win mentality.

It has been a tale of two seasons for John Mateer, separated by a thumb injury. In the first four games, Mateer was among the Heisman favorites, leading Oklahoma to a 4-0 record with impressive wins over Michigan and Auburn. Since returning, though, the Sooners are 2-2 and Mateer has more interceptions than touchdowns. Last week was encouraging as Mateer ran for a season-high 80 yards and rushed for his first touchdown since the injury.

After serving a reserve role for most of the season, Xavier Robinson has been exceptional since the Texas game. In the last three games, Robinson is averaging 94 yards per game with a robust 7.8 yards per carry figure. He has four touchdowns in that span, and he has a pair of 100-yard games.

XAVIER ROBINSON FOR SIX 😤

OKLAHOMA TAKES THE LEAD OVER NO. 7 ALABAMA‼️ pic.twitter.com/WZLBsjxzPq

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 24, 2024

Arkansas transfer Isaiah Sategna has broken out for the Sooners. He is averaging 76.9 yards per game with a healthy run of seven straight games over 60 yards after a cold start. He leads Oklahoma in catches, yards, and receiving touchdowns.

Oklahoma is an equal opportunity defense. Twelve different players have at least 4.0 tackles for loss, with Taylor Wein leading the way with 11.0. Seven Sooners have multiple sacks, led by potential first-round pick R Mason Thomas.

Alabama Crimson Tide Analysis

Alabama has rattled off eight straight wins after a shocking loss to Florida State in Tallahassee. The Crimson Tide controls its destiny to win the SEC, just needing to take care of business with Oklahoma and Auburn surrounding their annual FCS game. My prediction considers Alabama’s strong home-field advantage at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Ty Simpson has been a revelation this season. In his first season as a starter, Simpson leads the SEC with 21 passing touchdowns, and he has thrown just one interception. He is among the most likely players in the country to be invited to New York for the Heisman ceremony.

Watch the rip through, reset and anticipation from under-center by Ty Simpson.

Exceptional. pic.twitter.com/U9yXTd1mZU

— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) November 9, 2025

To put it lightly, Alabama’s rushing attack has been below standard. Of the four running backs with at least 10 carries, none average even 4.0 yards per carry. The best of the bunch is senior Jamarion (Jam) Miller, but he has 54 yards on his last 30 carries.

The receiver corps, on the other hand, is up to Alabama’s usual standards. Germie Bernard is likely a Day 2 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, while Ryan Williams profiles as a first-round pick in 2027. Bernard leads the team in catches, yards, and touchdowns, but Williams is right behind him (with one fewer game played).

The breakout of Yhonzae Pierre has saved the Tide’s pass rush. He has 5.0 sacks, 6.0 tackles for a loss, and three forced fumbles in the last four games as his role has expanded. If he continues his development arc, Alabama is a serious threat to make a run deep in the CFP.

Oklahoma vs Alabama Closing Odds

The books have Alabama as solid home favorites in this SEC showdown. The spread ranges from -5.5 to -6.5 depending on the sportsbook. The total is set between 45.5 and 46.5.

Over bettors can bet over 45.5 at FanDuel for -112 odds. Under bettors can bet under 46.5 at ESPN Bet for -110 odds.

Alabama bettors can get the Crimson Tide at -5.5 at BetRivers (-113 odds) or -215 on the moneyline at ESPNBet. Oklahoma bettors can get the Sooners at +6.5 on Underdog (-113 odds) or +195 on the moneyline at DraftKings.

Oklahoma vs Alabama, Last Five Matchups

Oklahoma holds the lifetime edge over Alabama 4-2-1. Alabama has never beaten Oklahoma in the regular season, going 0-3. Both of their wins were ironically in the Orange Bowl.

Last season, a mediocre Oklahoma squad shocked Alabama en route to the Crimson Tide missing the 12-team playoff. Oklahoma had two 100-yard rushers: now-Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold and running back Xavier Robinson (who will feature on Saturday).

On the Alabama side, Jalen Milroe had a disastrous game with a 42.3% completion rate and three picks. Ryan Williams provided only two catches for 37 yards. This historical context plays into my overall prediction for another close, competitive game.