Final Ole Miss vs Georgia Prediction, Line Movement & Pick – Sugar Bowl

• #3 Georgia is a 6.5-point favorite over #6 Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl CFP quarterfinal
• The Rebels defense ranks 84th in yards per carry, and allowed 221 rushing yards to the Bulldogs earlier this season
• See my final Ole Miss vs Georgia prediction and pick, plus the latest line movement for the Sugar Bowl

#3 Georgia’s quest for a third National Championship in five years begins tonight in the Sugar Bowl, where they’ll face #6 Ole Miss in the CFP quarterfinal.

The Bulldogs beat the Rebels in a shootout earlier this season, and online sportsbooks are expecting another UGA win in the college football odds. I’m in line with that sentiment, and will be betting the Bulldogs against the spread as my final Ole Miss vs Georgia pick.

The action is set for 8 pm ET at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my final Ole Miss vs Georgia prediction and pick, along with the latest line movement for the Sugar Bowl.

Final Ole Miss vs Georgia Prediction and Pick

• Georgia covers the -6.5 Spread

Past success isn’t indicative of future performance; however, a closer look at the first meeting between these teams reveals the game wasn’t nearly as close as the 43-35 score suggests. The Bulldogs outgained the Rebels by 160 yards and held the ball for over 15 minutes longer.

Georgia ran all over the poor Ole Miss run defense, and the Rebels haven’t done anything to improve that unit. On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss lived on explosives early on, but there’s reason to believe they won’t be able to produce enough chunk plays to keep this game close.

Let’s start with the matchup in the trenches. UGA bullied the Rebels in the run game, and I expect a repeat performance. Ole Miss ranks 84th in yards per carry allowed, and surrendered 221 rushing yards to Georgia the first time around. The Bulldogs pounded the rock 47 times, wearing down the Rebels defense.

Georgia Rushing Stats vs Ole Miss This Season

Ole Miss’s only answer was to bring more bodies down into the box, and when that happened, Gunner Stockton connected with tight end Lawson Luckie for three scores.

Speaking of Stockton, he completed 84% of his passes in their first meeting. With so much of the Rebels’ attention focused on mitigating the run game damage, Stockton should have open receivers running all over the field when he does drop back.

One more advantage for the UGA offense lies in the red zone. They’re the 12th most efficient offense inside the 20, while Ole Miss ranks 101st in opponent red zone scoring percentage.

As for the Bulldogs’ defense, it’s not as talented as the ones that led them to two titles in the CFP National Championship odds, but it has made big improvements. Georgia has significantly boosted their pass rush productivity and their tackling efficiency. The Bulldogs are PFF’s fifth-ranked tackling team, and are 18th in broken tackles allowed.

It took them a minute, but they did eventually solve the Rebels’ offensive attack in their first matchup. Georgia forced two punts and a turnover on Ole Miss’ final three possessions, helping UGA close the game on a 17-0 run.

Rebels QB Trinidad Chambliss is a big play waiting to happen, but given the Bulldogs’ improved defensive metrics, I don’t expect him to be nearly as efficient as he was in Round 1. Chambliss and the Rebels ran incredibly hot early on versus Georgia, scoring on five straight possessions. After that, they were bottled up, and with Lane Kiffin no longer around to draw up the game plan, I expect yards to be tough to come by.

Ole Miss vs Georgia Line Movement

With Ohio State losing to Miami last night, the Bulldogs’ path in the CFP Bracket just got a whole lot easier. Georgia will have to first beat their SEC rivals, something the majority of bettors believe they’ll accomplish convincingly.

Per the college football public betting trends, the Bulldogs are drawing 56% of the ATS tickets and 58% of the handle ahead of kickoff.

Ole Miss vs Georgia Odds

Despite the Bulldogs love, this game has seen very little line movement to date. The spread opened Georgia -6.5 and that’s exactly where it sits.

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose or a First Bet Safety Net Up to $1,000!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. RG Line: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY). Must be present in AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA (select parishes)/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME365

CODE: DIME365

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $150

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

Odds as of Jan 1 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on the College Football Playoff.

Total-wise, some books have moved the over/under down a point from its 56.5 point opening line, but the majority have held firm. Their first matchup produced 78 points, but expected regression on the Ole Miss side and an improved UGA defense is creating enough doubt to keep bettors from firing on the over.