Final Prediction & Closing Line for Boise State vs Nevada (Oct. 24)

• Boise State is a 21.5-point favorite over Nevada in Mountain West action on Friday night
• The Wolf Pack is 128th in points and yards per game
• See below for my final prediction and closing line for Boise State vs Nevada

Looking for something to sweat post World Series Game 1? How about some late-night Mountain West football. Boise State (5-2, 3-0 MW) faces Nevada (1-6, 0-3 MW) in the desert with online sportsbooks predicting an easy Broncos victory in the latest college football odds. We won’t be betting a side in this matchup however, as there’s a tremendous amount of value on the total.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7 pm PT / 10 pm ET from Mackay Stadium in Reno, NV, with CBSSN providing the broadcast coverage.

Final Prediction for Boise State vs Nevada

The total for this game opened at 52.5, but has been bet down during the week. Most sportsbooks are currently showing a 50.5-point line, but you can still find a 51.5 point over/under at Bet365.

That’s where I’ll be betting as I’m taking the under in my final prediction for Boise State vs Nevada. The Wolf Pack own one of the most inept offenses in college football, while the Broncos have shown no resemblance this season to last year’s CFP National Championship odds contender.

Nevada Offensive Stats

Let’s start with the Wolfpack’s offense. They rank 128th in points and yards per game, averaging less than 15 points per outing. You can’t blame the offensive ineptitude on a tough schedule, as they’ve faced only one program ranked inside the top-73.

Nevada is one of the few teams that averages a negative EPA on rushing and passing downs. They average -0.07 EPA when they run the ball, and -0.31 EPA when they throw. QB Carter Jones has tossed just as many TD (3) as interceptions (3), and owns an ugly 43.4 passing grade under pressure.

As for the Boise State defense, they do two things exceptionally well. They get after the quarterback and they force turnovers. The Broncos rank 14th and 38th respectively in sack percentage and takeaways, and have held opponents to only 191 passing yards per game.

On the other side of the ball, the Boise State offense isn’t exactly a world beater. Yes, they’re averaging 34.5 points per game and 452 yards of offense, but they operate slowly and don’t generate explosive plays. The Broncos are 82nd in seconds per play, and QB Maddux Madsen has just 8 big-time throws all year.

Madsen is actually due for some turnover regression as well, as he’s been picked off only six times despite committing 11 turnover worthy plays. He’s completing only 57% of his passes, and the Wolf Pack are stronger defending the pass than the run. That could signal a big game for Dylan Riley, who ranks second in the conference in rushing with 695 yards.

There’s no Heisman Trophy odds candidates on Boise State like Ashton Jeanty last year, which means their points will likely result in long, clock killing drives. That’s great for under bettors like me, as is the fact that Nevada hasn’t been able to score on anyone all season.

Closing Line for Boise State vs Nevada

As mentioned earlier, the best place to bet under 51.5 is at Bet365. If you want to lay -21.5 on the Broncos, Bet365 is also offering the most favorable odds at -105. If you want to swing for the fences make sure to visit FanDuel, as their +1100 odds on a Nevada upset are the best in market.

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Odds as of October 24th. New customers can claim the Bet365 promo code and get a bonus to bet on Week 9 college football.

Per the college football public betting trends, the under is 5-2 in Wolf Pack games this season, failing to clear the total by an average of 6.5 points per contest.