Final Texas vs Florida Prediction & Closing Odds for Week 6 SEC Showdown

• Texas takes on Florida in a titanic Week 6 SEC showdown
• Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games
• Check out my final Texas vs Florida prediction and the closing odds, below

Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns battle DJ Lagway and the Florida Gators in a monumental Week 6 college football SEC showdown. After stumbling against Ohio State to begin the year, Texas is destroying the competition, winning their last three games by an average of 34 points.

On the flip side, Billy Napier is on the hot seat in Gainesville, as the Gators have lost three straight to South Florida, LSU and Miami. Another embarrassing loss could see Napier’s coaching tenure come to an end. Get your bets in before Texas vs Florida kicks off from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at 3:30 pm ET over on ESPN.

Find my Texas vs Florida predictions and the closing odds below.

Texas vs Florida Prediction

Manning excels when kept clean, with an 87.8 clean pocket grade. Should the Gators fail to generate pressure on the quarterback today, Arch will be able to carve up their secondary.

Florida’s 23.5% pressure rate, which ranks last in the Power Four, means Manning should find considerable success this afternoon. He also boasts a career 85.2 passing grade against zone coverage, which the Gators run over 83% of the time. This Texas vs Florida contest could get ugly.

Plus, the Longhorns under Steve Sarkisian have perfected the art of playing on the road, going an outstanding 11-1 SU in their last 12 games away from home. With all of the numbers and betting trends on Texas’ side it’s a wonder this spread is only 5.5-points.

The Longhorns are coming off of their bye week, and should be fully prepared to take down an overmatched Florida squad in this one.

• Pick: Texas -5.5 (-105)

Texas vs Florida Closing Odds

Texas are 5.5-point favorites in the closing Week 6 college football odds. The Texas vs Florida total is set at 42.5 with both the over and under at an even -110.

Bettors like the Longhorns in this one as 95% of moneyline wagers and 65% of spread bets are on Texas in the college football public betting splits.

Odds as of October 4th at FanDuel. Find the best college football betting apps for Texas vs Florida.

Texas Defensive Stats

The biggest mismatch on Steve Spurrier-Florida Field on Saturday afternoon will be the Longhorns defense against the Gators offense. Florida has scored just 33 points against three FBS opponents and will find moving the football against Texas to be a lesson in futility.

Looking at those last three games, the Florida offense is putting up only 4.3 yards per play (125th), and converting just 23.8% of third-downs (130th). Should that putrid level of offensive play continue from the Orange and Blue, the Longhorns will be eating gator for dinner tonight.

After all, the Gators are just 114th in the country in EPA per passing play, and 131st in third-down success rate. Lagway’s pressure to sack percentage sits at an insanely high 25% which will have Texas pass-rusher Colin Simmons and company licking their chops.

Additionally, the former five-star quarterback sports a 56.4 PFF passing grade with seven turnover-worth plays combined over the past three weeks. Lagway excelled at throwing the football deep last season, but hasn’t been able to conjure up the same magic in 2025.

He’s unlikely to find it against Texas, as the Longhorns secondary has allowed only one deep completion all season and boasts a 71.5 deep coverage grade that ranks sixth in the country. Texas vs Florida is always going to be a headlining contest, but today’s game is a mismatch of epic proportions.