Final USC vs Oregon Prediction & Closing Line for Saturday’s Big 10 Showdown

• #7 Oregon is a 10.5-point favorite over #15 USC in Big 10 action on Saturday
• The Ducks defense ranks fourth in points allowed per game, and second in yards allowed per play
• See my USC vs Oregon prediction and the closing line for Saturday’s Big 10 showdown

The #15 USC (8-2, 6-1 Big Ten) vs #7 Oregon (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) showdown this afternoon is basically a loser-leaves-town match. The winner will have the inside track to be among the final 12 in the College Football Playoff, while the loser will almost certainly be eliminated from consideration.

Online sportsbooks expect a convincing Oregon victory per the latest college football odds, and while I agree, I prefer targeting the under in this matchup.

Kickoff is set for 3:30pm ET from Autzen Stadium, in Eugene, OR, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my final USC vs Oregon prediction, and the closing line for Saturday’s Big 10 showdown.

USC vs Oregon Prediction

They say defense wins championships, and if that’s the case, we should expect to see the Ducks playing meaningful January football. Oregon enters this game ranked second in yards per play allowed, fourth in scoring defense, and number one in passing yards allowed per outing.

The Ducks will face a stiff test against the Trojans’ eighth-ranked scoring offense, but there are reasons to believe Oregon can clamp down on Jayden Maiava and Co. For starters, USC has lived off converting third downs this season. They rank fifth in the nation with a 51.72% conversion rate, but their average distance to go is alarming. USC averages 7 yards to go on third down. Against middling defenses, it hasn’t been an issue, but Oregon will eat them alive on the money downs.

The Ducks are allowing only 33% of opposing third downs to be converted. Oregon ranks top-five in early down success rate on defense, putting enemy offenses constantly behind the sticks. That will force longer throws from Maiava in an effort to convert, and that is not his specialty.

Maiava has converted only 50% of his 15+ yard throws this season, and that’s facing defenses that are nowhere near as talented as the Ducks. Oregon’s secondary ranks second in the country in coverage per PFF, while only two teams are graded as better tacklers. Also working against the Trojans is their injury report. They’re down two starting receivers today, plus their starting left tackle.

To combat this, USC would be wise to lean more run-heavy, but the Ducks yield only 3.3 yards per carry. Points are going to be tough to come by for the Trojans, but I don’t expect Oregon to light up the scoreboard either.

Oregon Defensive Stats

The Ducks may be a top CFP odds contender, but their offense has stalled recently. They’ve scored 20 or fewer points in three of their past five outings, while the shines appears to be off QB Dante Moore. The sophomore has thrown only 2 TD passes in his last three starts, and has four picks in his last five outings, after being intercepted only once in his first five games.

Oregon’s easiest path to success this afternoon is through the run, but that will only chew up clock and help our under bet. The USC run defense is the weakest unit on the field, ranking 77th in yards per carry, but they do make up for it by tackling well. The Trojans are top-15 in college football in tackling, which limits the amount of explosive plays they give up.

An elite defense, plus a run-heavy game plan for Oregon, is the recipe for this game to stay under the total, just like five of their previous eight games have.

USC vs Oregon Closing Line

The best book to bet the under at is BetMGM. They’re hanging a 60-point total, while the rest of the market is sitting on 59.5. Spread-wise, the Ducks are favored by 10.5, while you have to lay -420 odds if you want to bet them on the moneyline.

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Per the college football public betting trends, most bettors are seeing this game play out just like me. 86% of the total tickets are on under 60, as is 79% of the money.