Final Vanderbilt vs Alabama Prediction, Closing Odds & Betting Splits (Oct. 4)

• Alabama is a 12.5-point home favorite against Vanderbilt in Week 6 SEC action
• The Commodores are 5-0 for the first time since 2008 and seeking back-to-back wins over the Crimson Tide
• Read below for Vanderbilt vs Alabama prediction, picks, odds, and betting trends

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Vanderbilt (5-0) rolls into Tuscaloosa for Saturday’s SEC showdown against Alabama (3-1), and this isn’t your typical David vs. Goliath matchup. The Commodores shocked the Crimson Tide 40-35 last year in Nashville, and they’re back with an even better squad.

The college football odds have been on a wild ride. What started as Alabama -13.5 crashed to -9.5 before buyback pushed it to the current -12.5.

Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM EDT from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, with ABC providing national coverage.

Final Vanderbilt vs Alabama Prediction

• Final Score: Alabama 38, Vanderbilt 31
• Spread Pick: Vanderbilt +12.5
• O/U Pick: Over 57.5

The matchup couldn’t be clearer. Vanderbilt’s elite rushing attack against Alabama’s terrible run defense. The Commodores will pound the rock, control the clock, and keep Ty Simpson on the sidelines.

The line has been on a roller coaster. After sharp money pushed it from -13.5 all the way down to -9.5, we’ve seen buyback on Alabama push it back to -12.5. I’m not chasing this movement. The fundamentals haven’t changed.

I watched Alabama struggle with mobile quarterbacks all last season. They went 0-6 ATS against teams with dual-threat QBs like Diego Pavia. Florida State’s Tommy Castellanos just rushed for 78 yards against them in Week 1. Pavia is a much better player and has a superior supporting cast.

Vanderbilt’s ground game has been unstoppable, churning out 223.4 rushing yards per game at 6.5 yards per carry. They’ll attack an Alabama defense allowing 160.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks 86th nationally. That’s not a typo. Alabama can’t stop the run.

Big yardage for Jamezell! pic.twitter.com/90liVGAzqp

— #16 Vanderbilt Football (@VandyFootball) September 27, 2025

The revenge narrative matters, but Alabama’s defensive issues are too glaring to ignore. They’re allowing opponents to score on 83.3% of red zone trips. When Vanderbilt gets close, they’ll finish drives. Pavia has transformed into an elite passer with a 90.6 PFF grade on non-play-action throws, third-best nationally. He’s completing 75% of his passes with 13 touchdowns to just three picks.

Simpson will keep Alabama in this game with his arm, and they’ll probably win at home. But covering 12.5 points against this Vanderbilt offense? Not happening. Even with the buyback, I’m sticking with the Commodores.

I’m predicting a wild shootout where Alabama escapes 38-31, but Vanderbilt covers easily. Take the Commodores and the points, and sprinkle some on the moneyline if you’re feeling frisky.

Closing Vanderbilt vs Alabama Odds

Alabama opened as 13.5-point favorites before wild line movement took over. The total has also moved up from 55.5 to 57.5, and the market still expects fireworks.

Odds as of October 5 (updated). Check out the best college football betting apps for Week 6 action.

Line Movement Tells the Story

This line has been on a roller coaster. Opening at Alabama -13.5 on Sunday night, sharp money immediately hammered Vanderbilt, pushing it all the way down to -9.5 at one point Monday morning. That’s a massive four-point move through multiple key numbers.

But now we’re seeing buyback on Alabama. The line has climbed back to -12.5 as of Saturday morning. This could be square money coming in late on the Tide, or it could be sharps taking Alabama at the better number. Either way, I’m sticking with my original position on Vanderbilt.

The total has also crept up from 55.5 to 57.5, with the market expecting both offenses to produce. The moneyline adjusted from Alabama -426 to -490, with Vanderbilt now at +380.

Commodores Offense Firing on All Cylinders

Vanderbilt’s offense has been absolutely ridiculous. They’re averaging 49 points per game and just dropped back-to-back 50-burgers for the first time since 1915. This isn’t the Vanderbilt you remember.

Diego Pavia has made a massive leap as a passer. His 90.6 PFF grade on non-play-action throws ranks third nationally. He’s not just running around anymore. Pavia can beat you from the pocket, completing 75% of his passes for 1,211 yards.

In an interview with @clowfb, Diego Pavia had this to say on the Alabama game:

"The crowd is going to be a big factor in the game. But we just have to play within the white lines. If we do that, if we play our game, it won't be close." pic.twitter.com/Fnb6xESJ23

— Billy Derrick (@billyderrick10) October 1, 2025

The ground game remains their foundation. Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young have combined for eight rushing touchdowns. When you add Pavia’s legs (294 yards, two TDs), this is a three-headed monster. The offensive line earned a 79.8 pass-blocking grade from PFF, allowing just three sacks all season.

Eli Stowers has emerged as one of the SEC’s best tight ends with 22 catches. Junior Sherrill already has five touchdown grabs. This offense has weapons everywhere.

Alabama Defense Surprisingly Vulnerable

This isn’t your typical Alabama defense. They’re allowing 160.5 rushing yards per game at 4.3 yards per carry. That ranks 14th in the SEC. The pass rush has been nonexistent with just five sacks in four games.

Their pass-rush grade ranks sixth-worst among Power Four teams per PFF. Without pressure, opposing quarterbacks have picked them apart. Florida State and Georgia both ran for over 200 yards against this unit.

Ty Simpson has kept Alabama afloat with elite quarterback play. He’s thrown 11 touchdowns without an interception and earned a 92.4 PFF grade from a clean pocket, sixth-best nationally. The offensive line has been outstanding with a 79.8 pass-blocking grade.

But the running game remains a concern. Alabama averages just 122 rushing yards per game. Jam Miller returned last week, but they managed only 78 yards on the ground against Georgia. This offense is one-dimensional, relying on Simpson’s arm and receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard.

Betting Trends

ATS Trends

Vanderbilt has been a cash machine. They’re 5-1 ATS in their last six games and perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. The Commodores are 4-1 ATS this season, consistently beating the number.

Alabama is 5-0 ATS in their last five home games but just 2-4 ATS in their last six October games. Here’s the killer stat: Under Kalen DeBoer, Alabama is 0-6 ATS against teams with mobile quarterbacks. That trend should terrify Tide backers.

The historical series favors Alabama (12-1 SU in the last 13 meetings), but recent trends matter more. Vanderbilt’s road success combined with Alabama’s documented struggles against this offensive style makes the Commodores the sharp play.

Public Betting Splits

The betting action on this game is fascinating. The public can’t quit Alabama, but the sharp money initially loved Vanderbilt.

Spread: 71% of bets initially came in on Vanderbilt with 67% of money backing the Commodores when the line was at +10.5. The move back to +12.5 suggests late Alabama money, but the early sharp position was clear.

Moneyline: 96% of bets on Alabama, but 23% of money on Vanderbilt. That means just 4% of tickets account for nearly a quarter of the money. Some brave souls are still firing big on the upset.

Total: 61% of bets on the under, but 64% of money on the over. Sharp money expects points despite the public leaning under, and the move from 55.5 to 57.5 confirms this.

The betting market rarely sees this type of volatility on Alabama. The swing from -13.5 to -9.5 and back to -12.5 shows real disagreement about this game. I’m trusting the early sharp position and backing Vandy to keep this close in Tuscaloosa.