Friday College Football Picks: Three Best Bets for Nov. 7

• The Friday college football slate features three intriguing matchups to bet
• UCF ranks 103rd in offensive success rate and 80th in giveaways
• See below for my three best bets for Friday Week 11 college football action

The college football slate is small, but the stakes are high on Friday night. Houston (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) takes on UCF (4-4, 1-4 Big 12), looking to elevate its Bowl Game status, while the loser of Tulane (6-2, 3-1 American) and Memphis (8-1, 4-1 American) will be eliminated from any CFP coversation.

Then there’s #19 USC (6-2, 4-1 Big Ten), who appeared in the initial CFP rankings. The Trojans’ offense is electric, but they’ll have their hands full with a very underrated Northwestern (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) program.

After analyzing the Friday CFB matchups, here are my top picks for Friday’s college football games on November 7.

Friday College Football Picks – Best Bets for Nov. 7

Odds as of Nov. 7. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on college football.

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Friday College Football Pick #1: Houston Moneyline

The Houston-UCF line is the definition of an overreaction. The Cougars suffered a miserable defeat to lowly West Virginia last time out, but I challenge you to find anyone who has these teams power-rated close to each other.

Houston ranks top-46 in EPA on both sides of the ball. They’re significantly more potent on offense than their opponent and have the ingredients to expose the Knights’ biggest weakness, which is their run defense. UCF ranks 108th in EPA/rush allowed, and struggles versus dual-threat QB’s.

That’s good news for the Cougars Conner Weigman, who has 1,800+ passing yards and 327 yards on the ground with 8 rushing TD on his 2025 resume.

On the other side of the ball, the Knights’ offense is tough to watch. This is a team that ranks 103rd in success rate, and mustered only 3 points last week versus Baylor, one of the weakest defenses in the FBS. UCF struggles badly to throw the ball, which nukes their ability to come from behind. The Knights rank 101st in yards per pass, and 86th in giveaways.

I have the Cougars favored in this matchup, so I’ll gladly take them on the moneyline at near even money odds.

Friday College Football Pick #2: Memphis -3.5

On to Tulane vs Memphis next, where the Tigers are being undervalued by the market. Yes, they haven’t faced stiff competition to date, but they still sit 22nd in the AP top-25.

Memphis is stronger on both sides of the ball, posting a significant advantage in scoring offense and defense. They also have an identity as a top-20 rushing offense, and they take advantage of their scoring opportunities.

The Tigers are third in red zone scoring percentage at 97.22%. That’s going to be an issue for the Green Wave, who rank 83rd in opponent red zone scoring rate.

Another area of concern for Tulane is their pass defense. They’re yielding 8 yards per throw and a 64% completion rate. Memphis prefers to run the ball, but when they do air it out, 6th-year senior Brandon Lewis is having a career season.

He’s closing in on 2,000 passing yards and has gone three straight games without a turnover. He’s completing 69% of his passes so far, and has also chipped in 562 rushing yards and 8 TD.

UTSA just threw all over Tulane en route to a convincing upset win, and I bet Memphis will have more than enough success on the ground and through the air to cover 3.5 points.

Friday College Football Pick #3: Northwestern/USC Under 52.5

Not many people in the preseason thought the Trojans would be among the CFP odds contenders when the first set of rankings were released. USC has its offense to thank for exceeding expectations so far, but despite their scoring prowess, I like their matchup versus Northwestern to stay under the total.

For starters, the Wildcats’ defense is legit. They rank 15th in points allowed, and 13th in opposing passing yards. If there’s a weakness on that side of the ball, it’s versus the run, and we all know that heavy rushing volume burns clock and reduces the likelihood of a shootout.

The Trojans are more than happy to deploy a run-heavy attack, as lead back King Miller is averaging 7.8 yards per carry. As for the Northwestern offense, it can attack a very weak USC run defense with Caleb Komolafe. The Wildcats’ back is averaging 5.2 yards per carry over the last five weeks, while the Trojans rank 119th in success rate against the run.

With both teams set up for rushing success, the clock will be constantly running, and the play volume will be reduced. Northwestern’s run game is key to the under, as it keeps the potent USC offense off the field. None of the Wildcats’ eight games to date have cleared 50 points, and this one won’t either.