FSU vs NC State Prediction & Player Props to Bet Tonight (Nov. 21) 

• NC State hosts Florida State on Friday night
• The Wolfpack and Seminoles are both sitting at 5-5 records
• See our FSU vs NC State prediction and player props to bet tonight

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A pair of 5-5 ACC teams square off Friday night as NC State hosts Florida State in Week 13 college football action. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Below is my FSU vs NC State prediction and the player props I’m targeting to bet tonight (Nov. 21).

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FSU vs NC State Prediction

• Lean: Florida State -6.5 (-110)

Florida State enters this matchup after a comfortable 34-14 win over Virginia Tech, while NC State looks to rebound from an ugly 41-7 loss at Miami. Both teams have dropped three of their last five and are desperate for a momentum-shifting win.

On paper, Florida State deserves to be favored. The Seminoles rank 25th in net EPA per play—37th on offense and 65th on defense. Their biggest strength is their ground game, which ranks 11th in rushing success rate.

Running back Gavin Sawchuk leads the backfield with 97 carries for 444 yards (4.6 YPC) and eight touchdowns. Quarterback Tommy Castellanos has also been a major contributor on the ground, logging 107 carries for 404 yards and eight scores.

Castellanos has been far less consistent through the air. He’s completing just 59% of his passes and is averaging 14.7 completions and 25 attempts for 231.7 yards per game, with a 12-6 TD/INT ratio.

Tommy Castellanos with probably the craziest out of structure touchdown throw you’ll see this year pic.twitter.com/Qnq9GpE5VC

— Trevor Sikkema (@TampaBayTre) October 11, 2025

Tonight could be a chance to boost those numbers, as NC State’s pass defense ranks 125th in EPA per pass allowed. The Wolfpack are much better against the run, sitting eighth nationally in defensive rushing success rate.

NC State is led by quarterback CJ Bailey, who has been the more reliable passer in this matchup. He’s completing over 69% of his attempts for more than 2,500 yards with a 19-9 TD/INT ratio. Bailey also draws a favorable matchup against an FSU pass defense that ranks 70th in success rate allowed.

Overall, Florida State is the stronger team, and the current odds reflect that. Offensively, these teams aren’t far apart overall, but the biggest separator is NC State’s defense. The question is how long that unit can realistically hold up. Florida State brings two strong runners out of the backfield and should be able to boost its passing efficiency against one of the weakest secondaries in the country.

I don’t expect a blowout, but I do expect FSU to find a way to win ultimately. Still, I’d rather wait for an in-game number before backing them. The Seminoles are capable of winning by a touchdown, but I want to see how the Wolfpack defense holds up through those first few possessions. As a home dog, NC State should come out inspired, which could slow FSU’s offensive rhythm and give us a more favorable in-game line on the Seminoles.

My FSU vs NC State prediction leans toward the Seminoles covering, but the real value tonight lies in the player prop market.

FSU vs NC State Player Props to Bet Tonight

• Pick: CJ Bailey over 234.5 passing yards (-110)

My favorite pre-flop angle for player props to bet tonight is NC State quarterback CJ Bailey over 234.5 passing yards. Bailey is averaging more than 250 yards per game and completing 22 passes per contest.

If the spread holds and the Wolfpack are playing from behind, the game script should push them into a pass-heavy approach, which only boosts his chances of clearing this number.

NC State’s CJ Bailey is one of the most underrated QBs in the country, and showing why tonight with some of these plays against Georgia Tech. He’s balling out pic.twitter.com/Y4hoewIV8c

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) November 2, 2025

Florida State’s pass defense also presents a favorable matchup. The Seminoles rank 70th in success rate allowed and 65th in EPA per pass, while giving up 11.6 yards per completion.

This projects as a high-scoring matchup with consistent passing opportunities, making Bailey well-positioned to exceed his line on Nov. 21.

Seminoles vs Wolfpack Recommended Player Props

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FSU vs NC State Odds

At -225 on the moneyline, FSU has an implied probability of 69% to win outright tonight. That 6.5-point spread implies a relatively close game between these 5-5 teams.

With the total pushing 60, we could see plenty of scoring opportunities for CFB player props tonight.

Odds via FanDuel on Nov. 21 as of 1:00 p.m. ET. Get in on the action with a FanDuel promo code for FSU vs North Carolina State.