Georgia Southern vs App State Best Bets, Prediction & Pick for Thursday
By Ryan Potts in College Football
Published:
- One of college football’s best rivalries is renewed
- Georgia Southern and App State look to push for bowl eligibility
- Read below for my Georgia Southern vs App State best bets, prediction, and pick
A pair of 1-3 (in conference) rivals square off as the Georgia Southern Eagles (3-5) face the App State Mountaineers (4-4) in the 39th iteration of “Deeper Than Hate.” Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, North Carolina, will play host to a 7:30 PM ET kickoff on Thursday, Nov. 6th. ESPN2 will broadcast the game.
I have finalized my Georgia Southern vs App State prediction and given three best bets to tail for Thursday night’s Sun Belt action.
Georgia Southern vs App State Prediction
- App State 34, Georgia Southern 31
Clay Helton’s Eagles have a middle-of-the-pack offense (67th in scoring) and a disastrous defense (128th). Usually one of the premier rushing teams in college football, the Eagles are being outgunned on the ground by 103.9 yards per game, a testament to the negative game scripts they often find themselves in.
That said, quarterback JC French has been sharp. He has 19 total touchdowns to just six interceptions. His five rushing touchdowns lead the team.
French has been particularly dialed in with receiver Camden Brown, who leads the Sun Belt with nine touchdowns. Brown has over one-third of all of Georgia Southern’s receiving yards.
The rushing attack might not be setting school records anymore, but lead back OJ Arnold did not get the memo. He is averaging a sturdy 5.8 yards per rush, and he has scored three touchdowns. Arnold has also chipped in with 104 receiving yards.
Defensively, MJ Stroud leads the conference with 9.5 tackles for a loss. He also has 3.5 sacks, a pass deflection, and a forced fumble.
App State has dropped its last two games after a promising 4-2 start, dropping a pair of one-score conference games. The culprit has been a shaky defense which has allowed 20 points in six straight games after allowing just 24 total in the first two games. The offense has been spotty as well, scoring just 21 in App State’s last game after scoring 88 over the previous two.
App State has had two primary passers this season. Both AJ Swann and J.J. Kohl have played five games and attempted at least 140 passes. Both have eight passing touchdowns, and neither is particularly adept at rushing. Swann completes a higher percentage of his passes and has a superior yards per attempt mark, but he has thrown three times as many interceptions.
Running back Rashod Dubinion leads the Sun Belt in rushing, averaging over 94 yards per game. He averaged a solid 5.5 yards per carry, and he leads the team with four rushing touchdowns.
App State has four different receivers who have contributed at least 300 receiving yards. Jaden Barnes leads the team with 41 catches, 445 yards, and six touchdowns. Dalton Stroman and Davion Dozier have been key big-play threats – Dozier has scored in four straight games. Tight end Izayah Cummings has been a reliable chain mover as well, with 37 catches.
Defensively, watch for the big play. App State has four different players who have multiple interceptions. Zyeir Gamble has two interceptions and two forced fumbles. Kevin Abrams-Verwayne has a conference-leading three forced fumbles
Georgia Southern vs App State Pick
- Over 61 (-110 Fanatics)
Here is my primary justification for Over 61 in this Sun Belt rivalry game:
- At a certain point, any records and stats can be thrown out when it comes to rivalry games – particularly those worthy of being called “Deeper Than Hate.” Even if one side is winning by a hefty margin, pride is on the line, and I expect the offenses to fight to score all 60 minutes.
- Neither team has a particularly strong defense. App State has the better of the two units, but they rank 92nd in points allowed per game. On the flip side, Georgia State is allowing a cartoonish 35.4 points per game, a bottom-10 mark in FBS. Points will come in bunches.
- In Georgia Southern games, the over is 6-2, including a bevy of games scoring into the 70s. In App State games, the over is 4-4, but four games have seen 60 points scored.
Georgia Southern vs App State Best Bets
- Over 61 (-110, Fanatics)
In two of the previous three meetings, the total has soared into the 60s and beyond. In 2022, a whopping 99 points were scored in this rivalry game.
- Georgia Southern +5.5 (-106, FanDuel)
Even if they lose, I expect Georgia Southern to keep it respectable. Georgia Southern’s offensive line matches up well with a solid App State unit while some of Southern’s deficiencies on defense will be masked by App State’s mediocre offensive line.
- Georgia Southern Moneyline (+180, FanDuel)
In a heated rivalry such as Georgia Southern vs App State, it is worth taking the underdog at nearly 2-to-1 odds. App State has lost outright as favorites against Southern Miss (-3) and Coastal Carolina (-10.5) already this season.
Georgia Southern vs App State Betting Lines
The books have App State has solid home favorites for this rivalry game. App State bettors should take the Mountaineers -5.5 on the spread (-105 odds at ESPN Bet) or -195 on the moneyline (also at ESPN Bet). Georgia Southern bettors should take the Eagles +5.5 on the spread (-106 odds at FanDuel) or +180 on the moneyline (also at FanDuel).
The total is set between 61 and 62.5. Over bettors can get over 61 for -110 odds at Fanatics. Under bettors can get under 62.5 at BetRivers for -122 odds.
Georgia Southern vs App State, Last Five Matchups
“Deeper Than Hate” has been contested 38 times, with App State holding the lifetime edge 21-16-1. The schools have met yearly since 1993, including a pair of FCS playoff matchups before both schools jumps to the FBS level.
Last season, the Eagles pulled out a 29-20 wire-to-wire victory. Running back Jalen White ran for 125 yards and three touchdowns for Georgia Southern, eventually leading the conference in rushing touchdowns. On the App State side, future Tennessee transfer Joey Aguilar threw for 290 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, bombine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
