Hawaii vs UNLV Prediction, Picks & Odds for Friday Night Football

• Two Mountain West foes look to stay alive to make the conference title game
• Hawaii looks for its first eight-win season since 2019
• Continue reading for my Hawaii vs UNLV prediction, picks, and odds

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The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (7-3, 4-2 in the Mountain West) head east to face the UNLV Rebels (8-2, 4-2 in the Mountain West) in a de facto elimination game for the Mountain West title game. This Friday Night Football showdown takes place at Allegiant Stadium at 10:30 PM ET on Friday, Nov. 21, with Fox Sports 1 holding the broadcast.

I have honed in on my Hawaii vs UNLV prediction and picks for this crucial Mountain West battle. Let’s dive into my analysis and Hawaii vs UNLV odds for this Friday night showdown.

Hawaii vs UNLV Prediction

• Friday Night Football Prediction: UNLV 34, Hawaii 31

MyHawaii vs UNLV prediction sees a close battle between two evenly matched Mountain West contenders.

Both teams need this win to keep their conference championship hopes alive, and I expect UNLV’s home-field advantage to be the difference in what should be a high-scoring Friday Night Football thriller.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Analysis

The program’s first winning season since 2020, Timmy Chang’s Rainbow Warriors have been a revelation. They have their usual high-flying passing attack and a Groza Award favorite at kicker in the “Tokyo Toe,” Kansei Matsuzawa. Matsuzawa is 22-for-22 on field goals and 33-for-33 on extra points, leading the conference in scoring and leading the FBS in field goals made.

Freshman quarterback Micah Alejado has been a stud for the Rainbow Warriors. He leads the conference with 18 passing touchdowns, tossing three touchdowns in five straight games. While he has missed two games this season, he is a contender for MWC Offensive Player of the Year. To add to the equation, Alejado attended Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas and was heavily recruited by UNLV.

While Hawaii’s run game is clearly second fiddle to the passing attack (Hawaii has a pass rate above 70%), the duo of Landon Sims and Cam Barfield have been solid. Sims leads the team with 487 yards, while Barfield has been a tick more efficient in about half the carries. Both runners have scored five total touchdowns.

Continuing a legacy of great receivers, Stanford transfer Jackson Harris leads the Mountain West in receiving touchdowns. He has multiple touchdowns in three straight games and four of his last five games, with five straight games of 100 receiving yards.

Jackson Harris has been a standout WR for Hawaii with 731 yards and an average of 17.4 yards per catch with 10 touchdowns.

Harris is 6-3 205 and has 5 straight games over 100 yards receiving.

pic.twitter.com/KtsFnnqTW1

— WestCoastCFB (@WestCoastCFB) November 15, 2025

On defense, watch for Jackie Johnson III. Johnson has 7.0 sacks and two fumble recoveries on the season. Hawaii also has a ball-hawk secondary with four players who have at least five pass deflections.

UNLV Rebels Analysis

UNLV has lost the last two Mountain West Title Games, but they have some work to do to make their third straight. Dan Mullen’s first year in Sin City has been a successful continuation of Barry Odom’s 19-8 tenure over the last two seasons.

Signal-caller Anthony Colandrea is tied with Alejado at the top of the Mountain West’s passing touchdown leaderboard. The Virginia transfer is completing a conference-leading 67.1% of his passes. He is also a tremendous dual threat, adding over 600 non-sack rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns.

Jai’Den Thomas has been sensational for the Rebels this season. The junior is averaging a conference-best 7.6 yards per rush, and he is on pace for over 1,000 yards if he plays in a 12th game (either the Mountain West title game or a bowl game). He has eight rushing touchdowns this season. Thomas is questionable for the game after missing last week’s game.

Congrats to Jai'Den Thomas 🏈and Meadow Roland 🏀 on being named the Raising Cane's Outstanding Co-Rebels of the Week‼️Thomas ran for 131 yards & 1 TD in a win at Colorado State. Roland averaged 17.5 PPG & 12 RPG to lead the Lady Rebels to a 2-0 start.

📰https://t.co/RwbC3NKkfu pic.twitter.com/dNlkqN56v0

— UNLV Athletics (@UNLVathletics) November 12, 2025

Top receiver Jaden Bradley has 43 catches for 712 yards and three touchdowns this season, leading the team in both catches and yards. Fellow receiver Daejon Reynolds leads the team with four receiving touchdowns.

Passers beware: UNLV has picked off 12 passes this season. A pair of dual transfers, Aamaris Brown and Laterrance Welch, each have a conference-leading four interceptions. Brown has taken two back for house calls.

Hawaii vs UNLV Picks

• Pick: UNLV -2.5

I am backing UNLV -2.5 in my Hawaii vs UNLV picks for the following reasons:

• While Hawaii is an impressive 7-3 ATS this season, they are only 2-2 ATS on the road. This includes their most recent road game, a seven-point loss at San Jose State as 2.5-point underdogs.
• UNLV is coming off back-to-back wins, including a gritty double-overtime win over Utah State. The Rebels trailed in both games before mounting comebacks. UNLV is 4-1 at home this season.
• UNLV’s rushing offense has forced 102 missed tackles this season, according to PFF. Hawaii has missed 62 tackles in run defense, an average of six per game. I expect the Rebels to control the game on the ground and exhaust Hawaii’s defense, particularly in the second half of this Friday Night Football matchup.

Hawaii vs UNLV Odds

The sportsbooks have UNLV as slight home favorites in the Hawaii vs UNLV odds for this Mountain West battle. The total is set between 63.5 and 64.5 points for Friday Night Football. Over bettors can get over 63.5 at Underdog for -114 odds. Under bettors can get under 64.5 on FanDuel for -115 odds.

UNLV bettors can get the Rebels -2.5 on the spread at FanDuel (-118 odds) or -140 on the moneyline at bet365. Hawaii bettors can get the Rainbow Warriors at +3 on the spread at Fanatics (-115 odds) or +120 on the moneyline at FanDuel. These Hawaii vs UNLV odds reflect what should be a closely contested game.

Hawaii vs UNLV H2H History

Hawaii holds the lifetime edge in this series 19-15, a series dating back to 1969. UNLV has held the slight edge in recent seasons, winning six of 10 matchups.

Last season, the Mountain West title game-bound Rebels won 29-27 in Honolulu. Hawaii took a second-half lead, but UNLV answered right back and pulled out a close win. UNLV’s Hajj-Malik Williams had just shy of 300 total yards with two touchdowns. On the Hawaii side, receiver Jonah Panoke caught two touchdowns in the second half.

This history of close matchups is another reason I’m projecting a tight contest in my Hawaii vs UNLV prediction for Friday Night Football.