Houston vs UCF Prediction, Pick & Betting Line (Friday, Nov. 7)

• Houston’s CFP hopes are on life support
• UCF has lost four of five games
• Read below for my Houston vs UCF prediction, pick, and the updated betting line

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The Houston Cougars (7-2, 4-2 in Big 12 play) and UCF Knights (4-4, 1-4 in Big 12 play) battle in a conference showdown. FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando plays host to an 8 PM ET kickoff on Friday, Nov. 7, on an FS1 broadcast.

I have locked in my Houston vs UCF prediction and pick for Friday night Big 12 action. I have also provided the updated betting lines.

Houston vs UCF Prediction

• Houston 24, UCF 20

After being ranked for the first time all season, Houston took a shocking loss to an unranked West Virginia team at home. Now with two conference losses, Houston would need a miracle to squeeze into the Big 12 title game. Without said miracle, Houston will settle for a non-CFP bowl game.

Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He has a strong 25 total touchdowns, including three or more in four straight games. He is a reliable rushing threat, too, with nine rushing touchdowns and over 400 rushing yards excluding sacks.

Houston’s running game proper has been mediocre. Dean Connors leads the conference with 148 rushing attempts, but he is averaging just 4.4 yards per rush. He has four rushing touchdowns and is third on the team in receptions.

Speaking of the passing offense, Houston has a strong pair of weapons in receiver Amare Thomas and tight end Tanner Koziol. Thomas leads the team with 634 yards and seven touchdowns. Koziol leads the team with 48 catches. Watch for Koziol to go on Day 3 of the 2026 NFL Draft.

Houston TE Tanner Koziol is a riser and contested catch in traffic beast. Cool catches and production all over the tape.

16 TEs get drafted per year. Koziol goes in the top half IMO.

Player Comp: Dennis Pitta

pic.twitter.com/3EaFQPlcMp

— Clint Goss (@NFLDraftDome) October 18, 2025

Eddie Walls III has been a standout on the defensive side. He leads the Cougars with 8.5 tackles for a loss and 5.5 sacks. He also has five pass deflections.

The Knights have had a difficult season in Scott Frost’s return. They opened 3-0 out of conference, but they have dropped four of five in conference. Ironically enough, their lone conference win came over a West Virginia squad that beat Houston last week.

Quarterback Tayven Jackson has had an up-and-down season. He has eight total touchdowns in seven games with four interceptions to his name. He is not much of a rushing threat.

Per usual, UCF has an electric rushing offense. Even factoring in sacks, UCF is averaging 5.6 yards per rush as a team with a firecracker of a back, Jaden Nixon, averaging a comical 12.1 yards per rush on 35 carries. Nixon has a team-leading six rushing touchdowns. Fellow running back Myles Montgomery is having more of a run-of-the-mill season, averaging 5.1 yards per rush and 71.5 yards per game.

Jaden Nixon and Myles Montgomery: pic.twitter.com/tdftwv4B5T

— Barstool UCF (@UCFStool) October 5, 2025

Eight different Knights have racked up 100 receiving yards this season. Duane Thomas Jr. leads the team with 38 catches and 393 yards, but he has yet to score a touchdown. DJ Black and Chris Domercant have two receiving touchdowns each to tie for the team lead.

Defensively, the man to watch is Malachi Lawrence. Lawrence has a team-leading 9.0 tackles for a loss and 6.0 sacks. He also has three pass deflections and a pair of forced fumbles.

Houston vs UCF Pick

• Houston +1.5 (-118, DraftKings)

With my Houston vs UCF prediction in mind, here is why I am picking Houston on the spread.

• Houston has a massive quarterback advantage. Weigman is a low-level Heisman contender while Jackson is merely a competent starter. Even considering UCF’s tough defense, I will back the better quarterback.
• Houston has a run defense capable of countering UCF’s explosive ground game. I expect a big bounce-back game for the Cougars after West Virginia beat them on the ground last week.
• Out of their four losses in conference play, UCF has lost by multiple scores three times. With a healthy Weigman, the Cougars have only lost once.

Houston vs UCF Betting Lines

The sportsbooks are split on this conference battle. Both teams can be bet as underdogs. Houston bettors should take the Cougars +1.5 on the spread (-118 odds on DraftKings) or -108 on the moneyline at FanDuel. UCF bettors should take the Knights +1.5 (-110 odds on BetMGM) or +100 on the moneyline at BetRivers.

Over bettors can get over 47.5 at ESPNBet for -105 odds. Under bettors can get under 47.5 for -110 odds on Fanatics.

Odds as of November 6, 2025, at College Football betting apps. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on .

Houston vs UCF Recent History

UCF holds the lifetime edge 8-3 in this series. UCF has won the last three matchups, posting a winning streak back to when they were American Conference foes.

In their last matchup, UCF cruised to a 27-13 victory. Future Broncos running back R.J. Harvey scored two third-quarter touchdowns to put the Knights out to an insurmountable lead. Future LSU safety A.J. Haulcy had 13 tackles and a forced fumble for Houston.