Indiana vs Iowa Prediction, Pick, Odds & H2H History

• #11 Indiana is an 8.5-point road favorite over Iowa on Saturday
• The Hoosiers’ explosive offense faces its first true test at hostile Kinnick Stadium
• See below for my Indiana vs Iowa prediction and pick, plus the latest odds and head-to-head history

An undefeated Indiana team (4-0) rolls into Iowa City for their first real road test of the season. The Hoosiers have been absolutely dominant, averaging 54.8 points per game, but they haven’t faced anything close to Iowa’s defense or the hostile environment of Kinnick Stadium.

Indiana opened as 6.5-point favorites, but public money has pushed the line to 8.5 in the latest college football odds. Meanwhile, sharp bettors have hammered the total down from 50 to 47.5, signaling respect for Iowa’s ability to control tempo. My favorite bet in this matchup is on the under, which should cash in a defensive struggle.

Indiana vs Iowa Prediction and Pick

• Under 48.5 (-110 at ESPN Bet)
• Iowa +8.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

This total has dropped 2.5 points despite Indiana’s gaudy offensive numbers. That’s sharp money respecting Iowa’s elite run defense and the reality of playing at Kinnick.

Iowa ranks 7th nationally in rushing defense, allowing just 60.8 yards per game. That’s a massive problem for Indiana, who’s averaged 308.8 rushing yards through four games but hasn’t faced a defense remotely this good. When the Hoosiers can’t run, they become one-dimensional.

Fernando Mendoza has been perfect so far with a 17-0 TD-INT ratio. But he’s about to face his first hostile road environment against a defense that excels at disguising coverages. The noise at Kinnick will disrupt timing routes and force Indiana into longer developing plays.

Indiana Offensive Stats

The weather forecast calls for steady 9 mph winds, which historically disrupts deep passing and field goal attempts at Kinnick. That’s another factor pushing this game under, especially with Iowa’s conservative offensive approach.

Speaking of Iowa’s offense, they’re averaging just 137.8 passing yards per game. They want to control clock with their elite offensive line and keep Indiana’s explosive attack on the sideline. The Hawkeyes rank 2nd in time of possession nationally at 36:50 per game.

Red zone efficiency tells the real story here. Indiana’s defense allows touchdowns on 100% of opponent red zone trips – dead last nationally. But Iowa only gets to the red zone on 90.5% of their opportunities and ranks just 51st in red zone scoring. Fewer red zone trips means fewer scoring chances.

Don’t forget what happened to Indiana last year in a similar spot. They started 5-0 with blowout wins before traveling to Northwestern. The Wildcats exposed them in a game that was 27-24 with seven minutes left. This feels like déjà vu against a much better Iowa defense.

Indiana vs Iowa Odds

The spread moved from Indiana -6.5 to -8.5 on public action, but that’s created value on Iowa. You have to go back to 2022 against Michigan to find the last time the Hawkeyes were this big of a home dog. Per the college football public betting trends, the public is all over Indiana while sharps have quietly backed the under.

Indiana’s moneyline of -308 implies a 72% win probability. But Iowa as a home dog in Big Ten play has been automatic, covering at a 65% clip over the last five years. The value is clearly on the home team getting over a touchdown.

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Indiana vs Iowa Head-to-Head History

Iowa has dominated this series recently, winning and covering the last four meetings. The Hawkeyes crushed Indiana 34-6 in their last meeting in 2021 at Kinnick Stadium. Indiana hasn’t won in Iowa City since before 2010, making this an even tougher ask for the Hoosiers.

The history speaks volumes. Iowa has won six of the last seven meetings, with their only loss coming at home in 2012. At Kinnick Stadium specifically, the Hawkeyes have been dominant, outscoring Indiana by an average of 20+ points in their last three home meetings.