Indiana vs Penn State Spread, Prediction & How to Watch Big Noon Kickoff

• Indiana is looking to become 10-0 after facing Penn State on Saturday for Big Noon Kickoff
• The Nittany Lions are attempting to avoid a six-game losing streak after hosting the Hoosiers
• See our Indiana vs Penn State spread, prediction and how to watch

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No. 2 Indiana (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) travels to Happy Valley to take on Penn State (3-5, 0-5 Big Ten) in Saturday’s Big Noon Kickoff at Beaver Stadium. The Hoosiers are looking for their second 10-win season in school history, while the Nittany Lions are desperate to snap a five-game losing streak.

Indiana is a 14.5-point favorite in the updated Indiana vs Penn State spread, with the Hoosiers rolling after crushing Maryland 55-10 last week. Penn State has struggled mightily since losing starting quarterback Drew Allar and firing head coach James Franklin.

Kickoff is set for noon ET on FOX for this Big Ten battle. Here is a look at the latest Big Noon betting line and my Indiana vs Penn State prediction.

Indiana vs Penn State Spread

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of Nov. 7 at 11:00 p.m. ET. Bet on Big Noon Kickoff with Caesars Sportsbook promo code.

Heading into this week, oddsmakers opened the Hoosiers as 13-point favorites with a total of 47.5. Early action came in on Indiana, pushing the line as high as -15.5 at several sportsbooks, before settling around -14.5 at most shops.

The total has also been bet up, now sitting at 50.5 across the market.

Hoosiers vs Nittany Lions Prediction

• Pick: Penn State +14.5 (-110)

It’s a shame we won’t see this matchup with both teams at full strength—at least not on Penn State’s side. Coming into the season, this was viewed as a potential defining game for Indiana, a chance to prove whether Coach Curt Cignetti’s group was a legitimate College Football Playoff contender.

Those expectations faded once Penn State lost starting quarterback Drew Allar for the year and parted ways with head coach James Franklin. That’s left redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer and interim head coach Terry Smith running the show.

Since they took over, the Nittany Lions are 0-2, losing 25-24 at Iowa and 38-14 at Ohio State.

Grunkemeyer has completed 61% of his passes on 56 attempts for 238 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Those numbers are brutal, but context matters: he was thrown into the role midseason, on the road, with one of the conference’s worst offenses, against two elite defenses. So the struggles aren’t exactly surprising.

Danny O'Brien on Ethan Grunkemeyer:

"For a redshirt freshman who's making his first two starts on the road against two of the better defenses in the country, there's a lot of really good things to build on each week … he's a talented kid with a bright future for sure." pic.twitter.com/OF69wpbzPf

— Joel Haas (@Joel_Haas1) November 6, 2025

Can things look better at home? A bit, probably. He now has two starts under his belt and the Penn State crowd behind him.

Indiana brings in a top-10 success rate defense and ranks 21st in EPA per play allowed, but Grunkemeyer shouldn’t look as overwhelmed as he did in Columbus and Iowa City.

Ultimately, this game comes down to how efficiently Heisman contender Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers operate offensively. Penn State’s defense isn’t the elite unit it has been in recent years, but it’s still respectable, ranking 54th in EPA per play allowed with strength in the secondary.

Mendoza has been outstanding—completing over 72% of his throws for 2,124 yards, 25 touchdowns and just four picks. He leads the FBS with 16 first-half touchdown passes, helping Indiana jump out to early leads all season.

Going into Happy Valley is never easy, no matter the state of the opponent.

WIIIIIIIIDE OPEN FOR THE TD @IndianaFootball strikes again 🔥 pic.twitter.com/tU8gQNetyP

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 25, 2025

I’m not calling for the upset or even a down-to-the-wire finish, but this sets up as Penn State’s “all-in” spot. They’ll be treating this game as their Championship.

First home game with the new QB/HC combination, nothing to lose and the opportunity to spoil a title contender is enough to motivate any group of athletes. Indiana is 0-13 all-time at Beaver Stadium.

Grunkemeyer has been a terrible salesman of his quarterbacking abilities, but maybe they can find some offensive momentum on the ground. Senior running back Kaytron Allen has shown flashes of stardom this season. He’s averaging 5.8 yards per carry, with 688 total yards on 119 carries and 10 scores.

Allen has rushed for at least one touchdown in each of his last eight games, tied for the longest active streak in the FBS. He could be primed for a big outing Saturday afternoon.

Fourteen and a half points is a hefty number to cover on the road in Big Ten play against a defense that can still get stops. It’s not my strongest betting angle of the week, but I’d lean toward Penn State +14.5 in this Indiana vs Penn State prediction.

How to Watch Indiana vs Penn State

This Big Ten matchup kicks off at noon ET from Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania—better known as Happy Valley.

No. 2 Hoosiers ⚔️ Nittany Lions 🔥

Catch this Big Noon Saturday matchup between @IndianaFootball and @PennStateFball at 12pm ET on FOX! pic.twitter.com/EyxOflqt0J

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 7, 2025

FOX is carrying this game’s coverage as part of its Big Noon Kickoff showcase.