Iowa State vs Cincinnati Prediction, Odds, Injury News & H2H History

• Cincinnati is a 1.5-point favorite against #14 Iowa State in Saturday’s Big 12 clash
• The Cyclones are decimated at cornerback with both starters out for the season
• Check out our Iowa State vs Cincinnati prediction, injury news and updated College Football Week 6 odds

The undefeated Iowa State Cyclones face their toughest test yet when they visit Cincinnati for a pivotal Big 12 showdown on Saturday. What started as a promising season for the 14th-ranked Cyclones has hit a major roadblock with devastating injuries to their secondary.

Online sportsbooks have responded to Iowa State’s injury crisis by making Cincinnati slight home favorites in the latest College Football odds. The line movement tells the whole story.

Here is our Iowa State vs Cincinnati prediction for Saturday’s Week 6 matchup, along with an odds update, injury analysis and H2H history.

Iowa State vs Cincinnati Prediction

• Cincinnati -1.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

This line opened with Cincinnati as 2.5-point underdogs. Now they’re 1.5-point favorites. That’s a notable three-point swing that tells us one thing: Iowa State’s secondary is in serious trouble.

The Cyclones lost both starting corners for the season. Jontez Williams tore his ACL against Arizona. Jeremiah Cooper went down in practice. These guys combined for 55 career starts. Now Iowa State’s rolling with Tre Bell, a transfer from Lindenwood making his first start, and Quentin Taylor Jr., who’s never started a game.

Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby couldn’t have asked for better timing. He’s coming off a monster 440-yard performance at Kansas where he threw three touchdowns and led a game-winning drive. Against inexperienced corners? He’s going to feast.

The matchup gets worse for Iowa State when you dig deeper. They play zone coverage 88% of the time. Sorsby destroys zone coverage with a 90.7 passing grade against it, five big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays. Meanwhile, Cincinnati hasn’t allowed a single sack all season. Clean pockets against backup corners equals points.

Iowa State’s offense won’t save them either. They’re missing starting kicker Kyle Konrardy, which matters in a game this tight. Rocco Becht is efficient but not explosive. Carson Hansen faces Cincinnati’s 31st-ranked run defense that allows just 107 yards per game.

The Bearcats are also getting healthy at the perfect time. While they have some players out, none are as critical as Iowa State’s losses. Cincinnati’s rolling with momentum after three straight wins since their season-opening loss to Nebraska.

Nippert Stadium will be rocking for this one. Cincinnati is 3-0 at home against the spread in their last three. They’re averaging 33 yards per completion on plays with 10+ yards to go. That’s best in the FBS. That’s the kind of explosive offense that punishes backup defensive backs.

Sharp money already figured this out. That’s why the line moved five full points. When pros are hammering a home team getting points against an undefeated ranked opponent, you listen. Take the Bearcats before this line moves more.

Iowa State vs Cincinnati Odds

Cincinnati opened as 2.5-point home dogs, but sharp action flipped this completely. The Bearcats are now 1.5-point favorites after that three-point swing. The moneyline moved from Cincinnati +150 to -120, showing massive respect from oddsmakers.

The total climbed from 51.5 to 55.5 as bettors expect Cincinnati’s passing attack to exploit Iowa State’s depleted secondary. About 65% of the money is on the over per College Football public betting trends.

Saturday’s Week 6 battle kicks off at noon ET from Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. ESPN2 has the broadcast for this Big 12 showdown.

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Odds as of October 4 at DraftKings. Check out the best sports betting app before betting on Week 6.

Iowa State vs Cincinnati Head-to-Head History

These teams don’t have much history, but their two recent meetings tells an interesting story:

Iowa State dominated last season at home with a 34-17 victory. But here’s the thing: they had Williams and Cooper healthy in the secondary. Abu Sama III ran wild, and Becht was efficient. Gabe Burkle caught 73 receiving yards.

Cincinnati wants revenge after getting pushed around in Ames. Now they get the Cyclones at home with a depleted defense. Different game, different circumstances.

The injury report changed everything about this matchup. Iowa State is missing 16 players total, including their top two corners and starting kicker. Cincinnati’s down nine players, but none are season-ending losses to key starters.

When you lose 55 combined starts at cornerback, you’re asking for trouble against a hot quarterback. Sorsby is completing 69.2% of his passes with a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Against backup corners? That’s a daunting challenge for any secondary.

I’m taking the Bearkats for my Iowa State vs Cincinnati prediction. When the line is moving this notably and the injuries are piling up for one team, it rarely pays off to go against the big money.

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