LSU vs Florida Prediction, Picks, Odds & How to Watch Saturday College Football

• #3 LSU is a 6.5-point favorite over Florida in Saturday College Football action
• The spread opened Tigers -9.5, but money has been pouring in on the Gators all week
• See below for my LSU vs Florida prediction and picks, plus odds and how to watch

An SEC showdown is on tap tonight as Florida (1-1) visits #3 LSU (2-0). Online sportsbooks are siding with the Tigers in the updated college football odds, but they’re not as bullish on LSU as they were to begin the week.

The Gators enter play after a disappointing loss to USF as heavy favorites, while the Tigers underwhelmed in a victory versus Louisiana Tech.

LSU vs Florida Prediction and Picks

• LSU -6.5 (-115 at Bet365)

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LSU was favored by 9.5 points in the opening Week 3 college football odds, but that number didn’t last long. A steady stream of Florida money has been coming in all week, dropping the line multiple points since its opener. What’s interesting is that the spread is declining despite the Tigers drawing more of the ATS bets.

According to the college football public betting trends, 76% of the spread wagers are backing LSU, but those tickets only account for 57% of the money bet. A discrepancy like that is a strong indication that it’s sharp action driving the number down, as pros are the ones who typically bet biggest.

I get what the professionals are seeing, but we’re at a point now where it’s gone too far. You can make the case for the Gators at a number north of +7, but now that LSU is only laying a TD, the value is back on them.

Let’s start with the Florida offense. The Gators are averaging only 5.5 yards per play, and DJ Lagway has not impressed so far. He’s averaging only 6.7 yards per throw, down over 3 yards from 2024. Florida was significantly outgained by South Florida in Week 2, and were sloppy all game committing 11 penalties.

No offense to the Bulls, but they’re not in the same tier as the Tigers. LSU is the fifth choice in the CFP National Championship odds, and has a defense playing at an elite level.

LSU Tigers Defensive Stats

The Tigers are allowing only 8.5 points per game and a minuscule 3.6 yards per play. Yes, Louisiana Tech is no offensive powerhouse, but they did completely shut down title contender Clemson in Week 1. You can’t run on this LSU team, and you won’t find much success through the air either. The Tigers have an elite stable of pass rushers and corners, plus a phenomenal defensive mind in coordinator Blake Baker.

On the other side of the ball, Heisman Trophy odds contender Garrett Nussmeier is a future Sunday star, while Aaron Anderson is on pace to be the next great NFL receiver to come out of the Tigers program. The duo has hooked up 14 times already, for 172 yards.

As for the Gators defense, yes, it’s a talented group, but nothing that Nussmeier and CO. can’t overcome. I expect we’ll see improved play from the LSU offensive line, giving Nussmeier plenty of time to operate.

If that’s not enough, I’ll give you more reasons to back the Tigers. Death Valley is one of the most hostile environments for opposing teams to travel to. The fact that it’s a primetime game gives the rowdy group even more time to get wound up, meaning the noise will be deafening.

That helps explain why LSU has been so dominant at home in recent memory. The Tigers are 16-0 straight up as home favorites over the last few years, and 10-5-1 against the spread. Everything points to a victory for Brian Kelly’s team, so I’ll lay the -7 in my LSU vs Florida picks.

LSU vs Florida Odds

The best spot to bet the Tigers -6.5 is at Bet365. As of Saturday afternoon, some online sportsbooks are still hanging a -7 on LSU, so make sure to shop for the best number.

LSU is also a -250 moneyline favorite, with Florida coming back as +205 underdogs. The total currently sits at 47.5, a number that feels high given how I think the Gators offense will struggle.

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Odds as of September 13 at Bet365. New customers can claim the Bet365 promo code and get a bonus to bet on Week 3 college football.

LSU vs Florida How to Watch

Kickoff from Tiger Stadium, in Baton Rouge, LA, is set for 7:30 pm ET, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage. As of right now, it looks like a perfect night for football. The forecast is calling for clear skies, minimal wind, and 84-degree temperatures.