LSU vs Ole Miss Prediction, Pick, Odds & H2H History – College Football Week 5

• I’ve made my early LSU vs Ole Miss prediction for Saturday’s undefeated SEC showdown
• LSU enters as a surprising underdog despite being 4-0 on the season
• Check out my LSU vs Ole Miss prediction, betting odds and H2H history below

Two undefeated SEC powerhouses clash when the LSU Tigers travel to Oxford to face the Ole Miss Rebels. Despite being 4-0 and ranked higher, LSU (4-0) enters as road underdogs against Ole Miss (4-0) in what could determine the SEC West pecking order. The Rebels play host at 2:30 PM CT on Saturday, September 27th, with ABC providing national coverage.

I’ve broken down my LSU vs Ole Miss prediction for Saturday along with the latest betting odds as kickoff approaches.

LSU vs Ole Miss Prediction & Pick

• Ole Miss ML (-115 at BetMGM)

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LSU’s defense has been elite through four games. Blake Baker’s unit allows just 9.3 points per game and under 110 rushing yards. They’re top 20 in every major defensive category and have stifled both Clemson and Florida.

But those wins look less impressive now. Clemson and Florida have combined to average just 30.8 points per game against FBS competition since. LSU’s offense has been the bigger concern. They rank last in the SEC with just 20 points per game and have scored only 5 touchdowns in three games against FBS opponents.

Ole Miss presents a completely different challenge. The Rebels lead the nation with 55 points per game and 670.8 yards per game. They’re averaging 8.85 yards per play and 11.8 passing yards per attempt. Both tops in the country. Austin Simmons and Trinidad Chambless have combined for 1,299 passing yards and 8 touchdowns through four games.

The X-factor is Chambless. The backup has gone 2-0 as a starter without throwing an interception. His mobility adds a dimension that LSU’s defense hasn’t faced this season. Under pressure for 2.5+ seconds, Chambless posted a 91.7 passing grade compared to Simmons’ 48.0 grade in the same situations.

LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier thrives in clean pockets. He ranks 21st in passing grade when clean and has thrown 25 big-time throws when not blitzed. Most in the country. But he’s vulnerable under pressure, ranking just 40th with a 59.5 grade when pressured.

Ole Miss generates pressure on 38% of dropbacks (23rd nationally) and has the 6th most coverage pressures after 3 seconds. If they can disrupt Nussmeier’s timing, LSU’s already struggling offense could stall completely.

The ground game matchup heavily favors LSU. Ole Miss allows 5 yards per carry and deploys only 3 true defensive linemen. But LSU hasn’t shown they can exploit this weakness. They’re averaging just 3.7 yards per carry despite facing softer fronts.

Sharp money has moved this line from LSU -1.5 to Ole Miss -1.5 or even -2.5. That reverse line movement tells you everything. The market sees what the stats show. Ole Miss has the offensive firepower to outscore anyone, while LSU’s offense can’t keep pace.

At home in Oxford, the Rebels average 49.7 points per game. They’ve scored at least 41 points in every home game this season. Vaught-Hemingway Stadium will be rocking, and Lane Kiffin has extra motivation after last year’s overtime loss.

With this in mind, I’m backing Ole Miss to win outright at home as Kiffin gets a statement win.

LSU vs Ole Miss Betting Line

The line opened with LSU as 1.5-point road favorites but has now flipped. Ole Miss is now favored by 1.5 or 2.5 points at most books. The total sits at 55.5 after opening at 56.5.

Despite LSU receiving 73% of betting handle, the line moved toward Ole Miss. This reverse line movement indicates sharp action on the Rebels. The moneyline has Ole Miss at -115 with LSU getting even money.

LSU vs Ole Miss Last 10 Matchups

LSU won last year’s meeting 29-26 in overtime at Death Valley. The Tigers hold a 7-3 edge in the last 10 matchups and lead the all-time series 64-42-4.

These games have been high-scoring affairs recently. The last three meetings have averaged 54.3 total points, with both teams combining for over 55 points in 7 of their last 10 matchups.

Home field has been crucial in this rivalry lately. The home team has won 5 straight meetings dating back to 2020. Ole Miss won 55-49 in Oxford in 2023, while LSU took last year’s game 29-26 in overtime at Death Valley. That trend bodes well for the Rebels on Saturday.