Miami vs Indiana Betting Splits – See How Public is Betting National Championship

• #1 Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite against #10 Miami in the National Championship
• Our analysis reveals how the public is betting and why
• Keep reading for the latest Miami vs Indiana betting splits and see how the public is betting the National Championship

The National Championship goes down tonight between #10 Miami and #1 Indiana, and there’s no secret who the public is betting. Money is flooding in on the Hoosiers ahead of kickoff, but as of this morning, the spread is holding firm at Hoosiers -7.5.

It’s a similar story for the total, as bettors are hammering over 47.5. As we inch closer to kickoff, I expect both the spread and over to climb, but the question is are those the right sides?

Below, you’ll find the latest Miami vs Indiana betting splits and a breakdown of how the public is betting the National Championship.

Miami vs Indiana Betting Splits

The college football public betting splits reveal that as of 9 am ET, over two-thirds of the ATS wagers are on the Hoosiers to cover 7.5 points, while over three-quarters of the moneyline and total bets are on Indiana -319, and over 47.5.

The point spread opened Indiana -7.5 in the college football odds, but quickly moved to Hoosiers -8.5. It sat there until Sunday, when enough money came back on the Hurricanes to drop the line back down to -7.5.

As for the over/under, it opened at 48.5 but was bet down to 47.5 immediately. It’s stood pat ever since, but unless the under starts attracting some action soon, this line is headed back up to its opener.

Moneyline wise, the number has hovered around Indiana -320 all week, with Miami coming back as +260 underdogs. Usually, an underdog would draw more money than the Hurricanes are (38%), but that speaks to the public’s infatuation with this Hoosiers team. It also doesn’t hurt that Indiana is 15-0 straight up, and have won 23 consecutive games as a favorite over the last two seasons.

Miami vs Indiana Spread: Follow or Fade the Public

It’s important to note there’s no major discrepancy between the ticket count and the handle when it comes to the Miami vs Indiana spread. Usually, when the money % greatly outweighs the bet %, it’s a sign of sharp action, as the professionals are typically the ones who bet the most.

The way the betting splits shake out right now, this is not a sharps versus squares contest. There are obviously some pros who see value on the underdog, but there’s also a percentage of them that are betting like the public.

From a trends perspective, betting the Hoosiers makes a ton of sense. 12 of Indiana’s 15 wins this season have come by at least 10 points. Three of their four wins versus top-10 programs were by double-digits, while they’re 10-5 against the spread this season, covering by an average of 13.6 points. They’ve outscored their two playoff opponents by 34 and 35 points, respectively, and grade out first offensively and fourth defensively in success rate.

Miami, meanwhile, is no slouch ATS either. The Canes are 10-5 against the spread as well this season, covering by an average of 5 points per game. Where it gets interesting is their cover proficiency versus ranked opponents. Miami is 6-0 ATS versus top-25 programs, and 3-0 both straight up and against the spread as underdogs.

Choosing an ATS side is an extremely tough choice tonight, whereas I think you can make a strong case for the over.

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Miami vs Indiana Total: The Public is on the Right Side

Six times this season, the Hoosiers have cleared 50 points on their own, including in the CFP semifinal versus Oregon’s top-5 defense. I’m not calling for another 50 burger from the National Championship odds favorite tonight, but I do side with the public in thinking this total is a bit light.

The main reason why is the lack of discipline on the Hurricanes’ back end. Sure, their pass rush is fierce, but when they don’t get home, they are vulnerable to big plays. Miami ranks outside the top-85 in tackling and explosive plays allowed, while I trust the Indiana offense to put their players in advantageous situations to minimize the pass rush effect.

Creative screens and a powerful rushing attack are two quick ways to neutralize a pass rush, and few teams execute those types of plays better than the Hoosiers. The Canes pass rush didn’t cause enough havoc against an Ole Miss offensive line that grades out inferior to Indiana’s, and that resulted in 400 yards of offense for the Rebels and 28 points in the CFP semifinal.

Miami also struggled against the uptempo SMU offense earlier in the season, coughing up nearly 400 yards, and Indiana is smart enough to dissect those two outlier performances against the Canes and produce even more success.

On the other side of the ball, Miami will need to be more efficient than it was against Texas A&M and Ohio State, but Carson Beck shouldn’t be under nearly as much pressure. The Hoosiers are solid in all defensive areas, but don’t possess a game-changing pass rush. When Beck has time, he’s proven he can move the chains, and I do expect the Hurricanes to be able to punch back enough to get this game over the total.