Miami vs Ohio State Betting Splits: Sharp Money Moves Cotton Bowl Spread

• Sharp money has moved the Cotton Bowl spread 2.5 points toward Miami in the final hours before kickoff
• The total has dropped two full points despite majority of bets on the over
• Read below for the latest Miami vs Ohio State public betting splits and line movement for the Cotton Bowl

The Miami vs Ohio State betting line is on the move hours before kickoff at the Cotton Bowl. The public is all over the Buckeyes, but professional bettors are tightening the line by hammering the Canes.

OSU is now just a 7.5-point favorite over Miami after opening as double-digit favorites. The total has also been dropping since it first opened.

Here’s what the latest DraftKings betting data shows for this CFP Quarterfinal matchup.

Miami vs Ohio State Cotton Bowl Betting Splits

Betting percentages from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Dec. 31 at 4:30 PM ET. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on college football.

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Public Loves the Buckeyes

Only 10% of bettors think Miami wins this game straight up. The Hurricanes moneyline is getting just 18% of the money at DraftKings, while Ohio State is drawing 90% of bets and 82% of the handle.

But flip over to the spread and things look completely different. Miami +7.5 is drawing 59% of bets and 56% of the money. That’s a huge gap between how bettors view the game outright versus against the number.

This pattern is common when sharps see value. The public looks at Ohio State’s brand and assumes a blowout. Professional bettors see two elite defenses and a low total, and they’re happy to grab the points with the Hurricanes.

Cotton Bowl Spread Movement

The line has been moving toward Miami all week. Ohio State opened at -10 on December 21st. It dropped to -9.5 by Saturday the 27th, then continued falling on game day.

By Wednesday afternoon, the Canes got down to +8.5. Just hours before kickoff, it ticked all the way to +7.5 at DraftKings. That’s sharp money getting more and more comfortable taking the points with Miami.

When a spread moves 2.5 points toward the underdog in a playoff game, it’s not the public driving that action. Books are reacting to respected money on the Hurricanes.

Sharp Money Pounding the Under

The total opened at 42.5 and has dropped two full points to 40.5. It fell to 42.0, then 41.5, before landing at the current number with slightly better juice on the under.

What makes this move interesting is the ticket split. 67% of bets are on the over, but the money is nearly even at 53% over and 47% under. That’s casual bettors firing small wagers on points in a playoff game, while bigger money backs a defensive slugfest.

A two-point drop over 10 days is significant for a total. Books don’t make that kind of adjustment based on public action—they’re responding to sharp money on the under.

Why Bet Miami and the Under

There is still value getting over a touchdown in a game with a 40.5 total. Ohio State needs to win by at least eight points in a game that’s projected to have about 40 points total.

Miami ranks 4th nationally in pressure rate and 2nd in secondary havoc. The Hurricanes held Texas A&M to just 3 points in the first round. Ohio State likes to play slow—they rank 106th in plays per game and prefer to grind clock.

Both defenses rank in the top 10 in EPA allowed per play. The Buckeyes allow touchdowns on just 33.3% of red zone trips, second-best in the country. Miami’s defense has been quietly elite all season, ranking 8th in success rate allowed.

When both teams are this good at forcing field goals instead of touchdowns, every possession becomes a grind. Two drives that stall at the 15-yard line and result in field goals (6 total points) instead of touchdowns (14 total points) can be the difference between the over and under cashing.

Experience Gap Favors Miami

Carson Beck completed 74.5% of his passes this season, second-best in the country. He’s played in SEC Championships and CFP games at Georgia. Julian Sayin is making his first playoff start as a freshman.

Miami doesn’t need Beck to throw for 300 yards. They need him to complete short throws, protect the football, and let their defense control the game. That’s exactly what he’s done since November.

The Hurricanes held Texas A&M to 103 passing yards in the first round. If they can get pressure on Sayin a few times and force Ohio State into third-and-long, this becomes a field position battle where every point matters.

Where the Sharp Money Went

The line movement speaks for itself. Professional money pushed this spread 2.5 points toward Miami and dropped the total two full points, both against the grain of public betting.

Ohio State is probably going to win this game. But the sharp money thinks it’s something like 23-16 or 20-13, a game where Miami covers and the under cashes. With two elite defenses and a slow pace, that’s where the value sits.