Miami vs Ohio State Odds, Spread & Early Prediction – Cotton Bowl

• No. 2 Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite over No. 10 Miami in the Cotton Bowl
• The Buckeyes lead the nation in scoring defense, opponent yards per play and yards per game
• Read below for the Miami vs Ohio State odds, spread and early prediction for the Cotton Bowl

The Miami Hurricanes silenced their critics in the opening round of the College Football Playoff by upsetting Texas A&M 10-3. Their reward: a date with the mighty Ohio State Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl. Online sportsbooks have pegged the defending champs as sizeable favorites in the college football odds, expecting a convincing victory in the CFP quarterfinal.

The Cotton Bowl goes down at 7:30 pm ET on New Year’s Eve, from AT&T Stadium in Dallas, TX, with ESPN carrying the broadcast.

Here is the opening Miami vs Ohio State odds and spread, plus my early prediction for the Cotton Bowl.

Miami vs Ohio State Odds and Spread – Cotton Bowl

Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over Miami, with the total set at 42.5. My initial lean is on the under, as the Buckeyes defense has been virtually impenetrable all season, while Miami struggled to get anything going on offense in their first round win.

The Buckeyes are also -380 favorites on the moneyline, giving Ryan Day’s team a 79% implied probability to advance to the semi-finals in the CFP Bracket.

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Odds as of December 20 at 3 pm ET at DraftKings. Be sure to check out the best DraftKings promo code before placing a bet on any College Football Playoff matchup.

Miami vs Ohio State Early Prediction

• Pick: Under 42.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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If you can’t put up offense versus Texas A&M, how can you possibly expect to score on Ohio State. Sure, the Aggies boast a strong pass rush, but the Buckeyes are a big step up in competition.

Carson Beck threw for only 103 yards in the Canes first round win, and the lone touchdown they scored was on a glorified jet sweep. Star receiver Malachi Toney avenged a late fumble by scoring the game winning TD, but outside of that play he was a non-factor.

The Hurricanes offense was carried by running back Mark Fletcher Jr., but that strategy won’t work against a Buckeyes team defense that allows less than 3.0 yards per rush attempt.

Miami should have thrived versus a Texas A&M team that was 131st in red zone scoring defense and 106th in broken tackles allowed. Instead, they managed only 278 total yards, and went 3-for-12 on third downs.

No matter what metrics you look at, the Buckeyes are the most dominant defense in college football. They rank number one in scoring defense and points allowed per play, while yielding the fewest yards per game. Enemy offenses are converting less than 30% of their third down opportunities, and only 69% of opponent red zone drives result in points.

Ohio State hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in any game this season, and just held the number one team in the nation to 13 points in the Big Ten Championship game. The defense is the reason Ohio State is favored to repeat in the National Championship odds, because the offense can be a bit underwhelming, especially against stiff competition.

The Buckeyes averaged only 21 points per game versus ranked opponents, and mustered only 10 points against Indiana last time out. Julian Sayin has more than enough weapons at his disposal, including a pair of future 1st round NFL Draft receivers, but despite the talent Ohio State is not an explosive offense. They prefer long, methodical drives which chew up clock and help games stay under the total.

Betting unders in Buckeyes games has been a very profitable strategy this season, and I expect that to continue in the Cotton Bowl. Ohio State games were 9-4 to the under this season. All four of their matchups versus ranked foes failed to clear the total, falling short by an average of 9 points per game.

Not to be outdone, unders reigned supreme in Miami games as well. That side of the total is 8-5 in their contests so far, and 3-1 in matchups with ranked opponents.

I envision this total coming down as we approach the Cotton Bowl kickoff so act now before it falls below the key number of 41.