Miami vs Ole Miss Picks & Odds: Expert Makes Last-Minute Prediction

• Miami is a 3-point favorite over Ole Miss in Thursday’s Fiesta Bowl
• The Hurricanes have won two straight playoff games as heavy underdogs
• See my Miami vs Ole Miss expert pick, odds and last-minute prediction for the CFP semifinal

No. 10 Miami (13-2) faces No. 6 Ole Miss (12-2) in Thursday’s Fiesta Bowl with a College Football Playoff championship game berth on the line. The Hurricanes are riding high after knocking off Texas A&M and Ohio State as betting underdogs.

Kickoff is 7:30 p.m. ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on ESPN.

I’ve locked in my Miami vs Ole Miss pick for the Fiesta Bowl, plus broken down the latest odds.

Miami vs Ole Miss Expert Pick

• Pick: Miami Over 27.5 Team Total (-120 at DraftKings)

My Miami vs Ole Miss prediction centers on the Hurricanes’ offense exploiting a porous Ole Miss defense that’s hemorrhaged points all season. Miami averages 31.6 points per game, well above this 27.5 team total.

The Hurricanes have scored 28 or more points in 8 of 14 games this season (57%). They’ve eclipsed 35 points six times, and even in losses to Louisville and SMU, they put up 21 and 20, respectively.

Ole Miss allows 20.4 points per game, but that number is misleading. Against comparable offenses to Miami, the Rebels’ defense has crumbled. They gave up 26 to Oklahoma, 23 to Kentucky, and 35 to Arkansas. Georgia torched them for 43 points in October, then dropped 34 on them in the quarterfinals.

The Georgia playoff game is the blueprint here. The Bulldogs scored on every single drive except the final kneel-down. When Ole Miss faces an offense that can sustain drives, they can’t get off the field.

Miami Offensive Stats

Miami’s playoff momentum is real. They’ve won two straight as underdogs, including defeating the reigning champs as nearly double-digit dogs. Their confidence is sky-high right now, and they’re playing their best football of the season.

Even when Miami’s offense struggled against Texas A&M in the CFP first round (10 points), they bounced back immediately with 24 against Ohio State. This team has shown resilience and the ability to score when it matters most.

Ole Miss allows 340.1 yards per game while Miami averages 405.6 yards. The Hurricanes convert 69% of red zone opportunities into touchdowns (40 TDs on 58 drives), and Ole Miss has no answer for methodical, physical offenses.

At 27.5, Miami essentially needs four touchdowns. Given Ole Miss’s defensive track record against even average offenses, that’s very achievable. The over 52.5 game total implies both teams scoring in the mid-to-high 20s anyway.

I’m hammering Miami over 27.5 team total as my Miami vs Ole Miss pick. The Hurricanes should comfortably exceed this number in a neutral-site CFP semifinal.

Miami vs Ole Miss Latest Odds

Miami opened as a 3-point favorite, and that number has held steady at DraftKings. The Hurricanes are -162 on the moneyline, meaning you need to risk $162 to win $100. Ole Miss is +136 on the moneyline, which pays $136 on a $100 bet. The game total sits at 52.5, with the over juiced at -115.

The Miami team total of 27.5 is priced at -120, requiring $120 to win $100 on the over. That’s slightly more juice than the under at -105, indicating books expect some action on Miami to score. Ole Miss’ team total is at 24.5, with -120 juice shaded to the Under.

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Odds as of January 8th at DraftKings. Bet on the Fiesta Bowl with the best college football betting apps.

Per the college football public betting trends, 58% of bets are on Ole Miss while 42% are on Miami. The public is fading the Hurricanes despite their playoff momentum.