Miami vs Pittsburgh Prediction, Spread & Best Bets – Week 14 ACC Picks

• The #12 Miami Hurricanes are 6.5-point favorites over the #22 Pittsburgh Panthers on Saturday (November 29)
• Miami boasts the nation’s third-best defense and the only D-line with 90+ grades in both pass rushing and run defense
• Check out my Miami vs Pitt prediction pick, odds, and spread for Saturday’s AAC battle below

The #12 Miami Hurricanes and #22 Pittsburgh Panthers face off in a must-win ACC showdown that could define both programs’ postseason fate. Miami needs a victory plus help from other results to reach the College Football Playoff bracket, while Pitt’s path is simpler: beat the Hurricanes and hope either SMU or Virginia loses.

The Hurricanes have been on a tear since their loss to SMU, rattling off three straight wins and outscoring opponents 113-34. Miami’s defense has been the story, holding Virginia Tech to just 17 points last week despite the Hokies threatening a comeback.

Pitt bounced back from a 37-15 beatdown by Notre Dame with a statement win over Georgia Tech. The Panthers jumped out to a 28-0 halftime lead behind Ja’Kyrian Turner’s 201 rushing yards, showing they can still compete despite a laundry list of injuries.

Miami vs Pittsburgh Prediction, Picks

• Miami vs Pittsburgh Pick: Miami -6.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

My Miami vs Pittsburgh prediction and best bet is the Hurricanes to cover the 6.5-point spread. Find the best line available on our live college football odds page.

Miami vs Pittsburgh Odds, Spread, Line

Miami opened as 6.5-point favorites before getting bet up to 7 at most books. FanDuel is still hanging -6.5, which we will gladly take advantage of. The total has also moved, opening at 48.5 before settling at 49.5.

Odds as of Nov. 29. New customers can claim the FanDuel promo code and get a bonus to bet on college football.

• Miami vs Pittsburgh Spread: Miami -6.5, Pittsburgh +6.5
• Miami vs Pittsburgh Over/Under: 49.5
• Miami vs Pittsburgh Moneyline: Miami ML -250, Pittsburgh ML +205

Kickoff is scheduled for 12 pm ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage. The forecast calls for 38-degree weather with a potential for flurries and 9 mph winds.

Miami vs Pittsburgh Week 14 ACC Preview

Miami Hurricanes Analysis

The Hurricanes bring the nation’s third-highest graded defense to Pittsburgh. Miami is the only team in college football with a defensive line that grades 90+ in both pass rushing and run defense, per PFF.

Edge rusher Ruben Bain Jr. leads all FBS edge rushers with a 93.1 grade and is considered a potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Fellow edge Hakeem Meador isn’t far behind with a 92.0 grade, ranking fifth among FBS edge rushers.

The numbers back up the eye test. Miami ranks third nationally with a 42% pressure rate and allows just 1.0 yards before contact per carry, ninth-best in the country. That elite front seven forces opponents into uncomfortable situations.

Carson Beck has been stellar during Miami’s three-game win streak. The quarterback has completed 66 of 83 passes for 858 yards, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Beck cleaned up the decision-making issues that plagued him earlier in the season.

True freshman receiver Malachi Toney has emerged as Beck’s go-to weapon. Toney ranks fourth nationally with an 89.7 receiving grade and has 90 targets this season without a single drop, the most drop-free targets in FBS.

Pittsburgh Panthers Analysis

The Panthers had 12 players out against Georgia Tech and still found a way to win. Starting kicker Trey Butkowski remains sidelined with an illness, and running back Desmond Reid is questionable with an ankle injury after missing last week.

True freshman quarterback Mason Heinchel has shown flashes but struggles under pressure. He ranks 140th nationally with a 34.3 passing grade when pressured and has the 12th-highest average time to throw in college football.

That’s a problem against Miami’s ferocious pass rush. Heinchel holds the ball too long for his own good, and Bain Jr. typically arrives in about 2.5 seconds without needing a blitz. I expect the Hurricanes to feast on this matchup.

Pitt’s offensive line grades out at 67.1 (66th nationally), which is essentially average. They’ll need to create quick-hitting opportunities for Heinchel and get the ball out fast to neutralize Miami’s four-man rush.

Miami holds significant advantages in the efficiency metrics that matter. The Hurricanes convert 47.1% of third downs (15th nationally) compared to Pitt’s 33.6% (98th). Miami also boasts a 93.6% red zone efficiency rating (sixth nationally) versus Pitt’s 83.1%.

The turnover battle could swing this game. Miami is +9 in turnover differential (19th nationally), while Pitt sits at just +2. The Panthers have been opportunistic with 14 interceptions, but Miami has been better at protecting the football.

Pitt’s best path to victory runs through the ground game. Turner just posted a 200-yard performance, and Reid could return from injury to provide another weapon. Miami allows 133.8 rushing yards per game (42nd nationally), so there’s room to operate if the Panthers commit to it.

The weather adds another wrinkle. At 32 degrees with potential flurries and near 10 mph winds, conditions favor the team that can run the ball and play complementary football. That’s typically Pitt’s strength, but Miami’s defensive front presents major problems.

Miami vs Pittsburgh ACC Week 14 Pick

The weather could keep this game closer than expected, but I believe Miami’s defensive dominance should be the difference. The Hurricanes can replicate Notre Dame’s blueprint from two weeks ago, generating constant pressure and forcing Heinchel into mistakes.

Beck’s recent form (zero interceptions and eight touchdowns over the last three games) gives Miami the edge at quarterback. The Hurricanes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Pittsburgh, and this elite defensive front should be too much for Pitt’s average offensive line to handle.

I predict Miami wins and covers, keeping their playoff hopes alive. I’ll back the Hurricanes as long as the number stays at seven points or less.

• Pick: Miami -6.5 (-120)