Michigan Coach Odds Update: Kalshi Shows New Favorite After DeBoer Drops

• Current Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer is no longer the heavy favorite to be the next Michigan coach
• Jedd Fisch leads Michigan coaching odds at 26% on Kalshi’s prediction market
• See the full updated odds to be the next Michigan coach on Kalshi

The Michigan coaching odds continue to shift on Kalshi following Sherrone Moore’s firing. Jedd Fisch now leads the prediction market at 26% after the initial favorite, Kalen DeBoer, dropped 14 points since Moore was first dismissed.

Michigan fired Moore for cause on Wednesday following an investigation into an inappropriate relationship with a staff member. Moore has since been arrested and charged with assault.

Fisch overtook DeBoer in the next Michigan coach odds on Wednesday night. The market remains volatile and could have DeBoer back on top by the time you read this. The point is DeBoer is no longer the clear favorite he was when Kalshi first posted their odds.

Updated Michigan Coaching Odds

Odds as of Dec. 11 at 7pm ET at Kalshi prediction markets. Start trading on Kalshi today with the Kalshi promo code.

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Why Kalen DeBoer Odds Dropped

DeBoer’s Michigan coaching odds are mainly dropping because of timing. Alabama plays Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff first round on December 19. DeBoer is locked into playoff prep with zero chance of having serious conversations with Michigan while trying to keep his team focused.

Michigan doesn’t have time to wait. The transfer portal opens January 2, just three weeks away. Every day without a head coach increases the risk that Bryce Underwood starts looking elsewhere.

But the real question is whether DeBoer actually wants to leave Alabama. He’s in the CFP in year two with the Crimson Tide. Both programs are elite, but Alabama’s infrastructure and built-in recruiting pipeline make it hard to argue Michigan is an upgrade. At best, it’s a lateral move closer to his Midwest roots.

Nick Saban set the bar impossibly high, but that comes with elite programs. High expectations and pressure are part of the territory, and everything DeBoer has said in Tuscaloosa suggests he embraces the challenge.

DeBoer hasn’t commented on Michigan since the firing. His last public statement came when Penn State showed interest earlier this cycle, saying “We are extremely happy at Alabama” and that there’s “never been any link, any conversation, any interest” with other jobs.

That said, there’s the Ty Simpson situation. Alabama’s backup quarterback may have a serious back injury that could limit him during the CFP. Some bettors think this means Alabama loses in round one and DeBoer becomes available by late December.

If the Tide gets eliminated early, the next Michigan coach odds on Kalshi will shift again. I’m skeptical DeBoer would leave in that scenario, but an early playoff exit could make Michigan more appealing.

Why Jedd Fisch Michigan Odds Surged

Fisch’s odds are climbing because he’s available right now and already knows the program.

Washington plays Boise State in the LA Bowl this Saturday. That game wraps up the Huskies’ season, making Fisch available for serious negotiations by Sunday. The timing problem DeBoer faces doesn’t exist for Fisch.

Fisch also has the Michigan connection that matters. He worked in Ann Arbor from 2015-2016 as Jim Harbaugh’s quarterbacks coach, wide receivers coach, and passing game coordinator. People in Michigan’s athletic department already know him. There’s no learning curve about whether he fits.

Former Michigan tight end Jake Butt posted a strong endorsement on Wednesday night. “He’s one of the best football minds I’ve been around,” Butt wrote. “He is a QB developer, and you’d see a transformed and improved Bryce Underwood immediately.”

Fisch’s track record backs that up. At Arizona, he developed Noah Fifita into the Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year in 2023. Fifita threw for over 2,800 yards as the Wildcats went 10-3. At Washington, he’s worked with Demond Williams Jr., who broke Michael Penix Jr.’s UW single-game total offense record with 538 yards.

ESPN’s Pete Thamel explained why Fisch fits Michigan’s DNA. The program favors a pro-style, NFL-style approach. Fisch’s extensive NFL background with the Patriots, Rams, Seahawks, and Jaguars aligns with what Michigan traditionally wants. The Rich Rodriguez experiment proved Michigan struggles when it strays from that identity.

Fisch’s buyout drops from $10 million to $6 million on January 9, 2026. But Michigan likely won’t wait because of the portal. They’ll pay the full $10 million if it means getting their guy locked in before January 2. The financial math favors Fisch because the transaction is cleaner and faster than trying to pry DeBoer from Alabama.

Washington also landed the No. 12 recruiting class nationally in 2026, headlined by five-star offensive lineman Kodi Greene. If Fisch leaves for Michigan, many expect those recruits to follow him. That’s an instant roster injection for a Wolverines program that needs offensive talent.

Other Michigan Coaching Candidates

Kenny Dillingham sits at 17% on Kalshi after trending slightly down. The Arizona State coach led the Sun Devils to an 11-win season, a Big 12 Championship, and a College Football Playoff berth in 2024-25. But he’s said multiple times he’s not leaving. “I was never leaving… I never said I was leaving,” he stated in November. He already turned down Florida and LSU this cycle.

Tommy Rees sits at 6% on Kalshi. The 33-year-old Browns offensive coordinator has Nick Saban’s endorsement. Reports indicate that whenever anyone asks Saban about coming out of retirement, he tells them to hire Rees instead. But Rees keeps saying he’s committed to Cleveland and developing rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders.

Jesse Minter sits at 8% despite being the name Michigan fans want most. The Chargers defensive coordinator faces a major obstacle: he’s serving a one-year show-cause penalty from the NCAA that doesn’t expire until spring 2026. Multiple reports indicate Minter prefers staying in the NFL rather than dealing with NIL chaos and NCAA investigations again.

Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel has less than three weeks to secure a coach before the transfer portal opens January 2nd. Fisch looks like the most realistic target, but this market is changing by the minute.