Michigan vs Texas Prediction, Opt-Outs, Spread & Picks – Citrus Bowl

• Texas is a 7-point favorite over Michigan in Wednesday’s Citrus Bowl
• The Longhorns will be without seven of their top 11 defenders per snap count
• See my Michigan vs Texas prediction and picks, plus opt outs and the latest spread

Another Bowl Game, another program decimated by opt outs. That’s the story ahead of the Michigan (9-3) vs Texas (9-3) match-up in Wednesday’s Citrus Bowl, as the Longhorns will be missing several of their most important players.

Online sportsbooks were initially high on Texas in the college football odds, but the opt out news has forced them to move the line towards the Wolverines. In my opinion, they didn’t make a big enough adjustment, which is why I’m betting Michigan against the spread.

The action is set for 3 pm ET from Camping World Stadium, in Orlando, FL, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Michigan vs Texas prediction and picks, plus the list of opt outs and latest spread for the Citrus Bowl.

Michigan vs Texas Prediction & Picks

The Wolverines opened as 8.5-point underdogs, in large part due to the Sherrone Moore firing. Many experts expected several Michigan players to bolt upon hearing the news, but they’re only looking at three opt outs at the time of writing.

It’s a completely different story for the Longhorns. Seven of their top 11 defenders in terms of snap count have already opted out, as have a few of their key skill position players. That prompted the line movement down to -7, where the spread currently sits.

Texas’ defense was the heart and soul of the program, and the main reason they just missed out on a spot in the CFP bracket. With a collection of second and third stringers manning the edge and back half of the defense, the Wolverines offense should find success.

Bryce Underwood is sticking with the program, and the lack of top-end pass-rush talent available for the Longhorns suggests he should have plenty of time to throw. Underwood posted an 80.9 passing grade when clean this season, averaging 8.0 yards per attempt. Under duress, it was a much different story, as his passing grade dropped 36 points, while his YPA fell to 5.9.

Texas is also down several linebackers, which opens the door for a big rushing performance for the Wolverines’ backs. Jordan Marshall and Justice Haynes combined to rush for nearly 1,800 yards, while scoring 20 TD. Michigan ranks top-20 nationally in EPA/rush and rushing success rate, and Underwood also brings a significant rushing ceiling into this game.

Michigan Rush Offense

As for the Longhorns offense, Arch Manning will be under center, but his skill position corps and offensive line have been decimated by opt outs. Texas’ top three running backs are gone, as is their number two wide receiver. Multiple offensive linemen are also expected to sit, which spells trouble versus a very strong Wolverines defense.

Michigan is losing a pair of future NFLers on that side of the ball, but the rest of the unit is intact. The Wolverines were top-15 in scoring defense, yards allowed per game and per play during the regular season, and the Longhorns’ offense didn’t exactly light the world on fire even at full strength.

At the end of the day, this is just too many points for a team as shorthanded as Texas to lay. I wouldn’t be shocked if Michigan won this matchup outright, and I’ll have a little sprinkle on their moneyline in addition to my spread action.

Michigan vs Texas Opt Outs

Onto the long list of names showing up in the college football opt outs tracker. The most prominent ones are from the Longhorns defense, including DB’s Malik Muhammad and Michael Taaffe, Edge Trey Moore and linebacker Anthony Hill. Those players are preparing for the NFL Draft, while running backs CJ Baxter, Quintrevion Wisner and Jerrick Gibson have all hit the transfer portal.

On the other side, Michigan Edge Derrick Moore and linebacker Jaishawn Barham are also preparing for life in the NFL, while guard Giovanni El-Hadi is choosing to sit.

Michigan vs Texas Spread

The best place to bet the Wolverines against the spread currently is FanDuel. They’re offering +7.5 at -118 odds, while most commercial books are set on a 7-point line. If you want to chase a bigger payout on a Michigan upset, be sure to visit BetMGM. They’re offering a +250 Michigan moneyline, which is the best in market.

Total-wise, the over-under is painted at 48.5 across the industry. FanDuel has the shortest odds on the over, while Bet365 has the best price on the under.

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Odds as of Dec. 31 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on College Football Bowl Games.

Per the college football public betting trends, the Wolverines were 5-3 to the under in their last eight games, while seven of the Longhorns’ 12 contests fell short of the total.