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Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee Prediction, Pick, Line & How to Watch

Eric Rosales

By Eric Rosales in College Football

Published:


Deuce Bailey throwing pass
Missouri State quarterback Deuce Bailey starts to throw a pass during the Bears' football practice on Friday, Aug. 8, 2025, at Plaster Stadium.
  • The Missouri State Bears are 2.5-point road favorites when they visit the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
  • Both teams opened their Conference USA schedules with losses
  • Read below for Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee prediction, pick and odds for Wednesday night CFB

Two teams looking to get into the Conference USA win column collide Wednesday night, when the Missouri State Bears (2-3-0, 0-1 C-USA) visit the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-4, 0-1 C-USA).

After going toe-to-toe with conference-leading Western Kentucky, the Bears have been tagged as the road favorite for this one in the college football odds.

Action gets underway tonight at 7:30pm ET from Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro, TN, with ESPN2 carrying the broadcast coverage.

Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee Odds

Bet TypeMissouri StateMiddle Tennessee
Spread-2.5 (-105)+2.5 (-115)
Moneyline-133+110
TotalO 49.5 (-115)U 49.5 (-105)

The Blue Raiders are 2.5-point home underdogs for this one, and are +110 on the moneyline. Missouri State is a short -133 on the moneyline, and the total is set at 49.5 points.

The line has held steady at 2.5 in most spots, though some books are showing -115 juice. That sits right below the key number of three, which lands in about eight to nine percent of games.

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Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee Prediction

The Bears do look like the stronger team, and in normal circumstances, this would be a pick for them to cover, as they’re going against a Blue Raiders side that’s failed to cover the spread in eight of the last nine home games.

But their QB situation is in flux, and the confidence level dips when potentially shifting from a 7-year senior to a true freshman.

Which is why we’re going to target the Under, with a pair of teams built for low-scoring affairs.

The Bears have gone Under the total in four straight games, though this line is the first time all season they’ve faced a total Under 50 points (49.5). They’ve gone Under that number in three of the last four.

Middle Tennessee has seen the Under cash in three of their five games, and their low scoring output always puts them in play for an Under.

Bears Might Be Without Starting Pivot

Missouri State hasn’t been able to string together consecutive wins through five games this season, losing last game to Western Kentucky 27-22.

Nearly pulling it out against the top team in Conference USA shows the Bears might be able to rise from the bottom five in the conference.

Their recent form backs that up. They’re 2-2 straight up in their last four games and 3-1 against the spread. The only ATS loss in that span came against Western Kentucky as a +4 home dog, and they only lost by five.

YouTube video

Don’t let their season stats fool you. The Bears opened with a 73-13 beatdown at USC as a five-touchdown dog, and that blowout skews everything.

Since then, they’ve developed a balanced attack. They rushed for 130 yards and three scores against UT Martin, then ripped off 214 yards on 34 carries and a score against the Hilltoppers.

Blue Raiders Need to Find Offense

Middle Tennessee has just one win on the year, and they fell to 1-4 with a 24-16 loss to Kennesaw State last time out. Overall, they’ve now dropped seven of their last eight games.

Offense has been a problem for the Blue Raiders. They’ve scored 16 points or less in four games, cracking the 20-point plateau just once. They’re averaging just 16 points and 4.9 yards per play.

YouTube video

Their passing offense is passable, ranking sixth in Conference USA with 233.6 yards per game. But they’re one-dimensional. The rush attack produces just 82.2 yards per contest.

It doesn’t help that their defense is surrendering a rough 31 points per game. Their pass defense is especially leaky, giving up 8.9 yards per attempt. Missouri’s suddenly-explosive run game might be a problem too, as the Blue Raiders give up 170.2 yards rushing, which ranks 10th in the conference.

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Eric Rosales
Eric Rosales

Sports Writer & Editor

Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.

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