Montana vs Sacramento State Prediction, Preview, Line & How to Watch

• I’ve made my Montana vs Sacramento State prediction for Friday’s Big Sky action
• The line has dropped from -10.5 all the way to -6, hitting a key betting number
• See below for my Montana vs Sacramento State prediction, plus the betting line and how to watch

The undefeated Montana Grizzlies (7-0) head to Sacramento for a Friday night showdown with the Hornets (4-3) in what might be the Big Sky game of the week. Montana’s high-powered offense faces a Sac State team that wants to pound the rock and control the clock at home.

Sharp money has already made its move on this one. Montana opened as 10.5-point favorites, but the line has crashed all the way down to 6 in the latest college football odds. That’s a massive 4.5-point swing, and landing on the key number of 6 makes this excellent value. The pros respect Sacramento State’s ground game, but Montana at less than a touchdown is a gift.

Here’s my Montana vs Sacramento State prediction, along with a game preview and reasoning for my Big Sky pick tonight.

Montana vs Sacramento State Prediction

• Montana -6 (-115 at DraftKings)

Montana’s offense is the most complete unit in the Big Sky. They’re averaging 40.4 points and 490 total yards per game, with elite balance between the pass and run. QB Keali’i Ah Yat has thrown for 2,442 yards with 14 touchdowns, while Eli Gillman has rushed for 776 yards and 11 scores.

Sacramento State wants to control this game with their rushing attack that churns out 247.3 yards per contest. The problem? Their passing game has been virtually non-existent lately, managing just 177 combined yards through the air in their last two games. QB Cardell Williams has more rushing touchdowns (7) than passing touchdowns (6) this season.

Montana’s defense leads the Big Sky with nine interceptions, and they’re built to make teams one-dimensional. When Sac State falls behind and has to throw, they’re in trouble. Williams has completed just 58% of his passes with a 6-4 TD-INT ratio against weaker competition than what he’ll see Friday night.

Montana vs Sacramento State Preview

The line movement here is absolutely wild. Montana opened at -10.5 and sharp bettors hammered Sacramento State, driving the number all the way down to -6. Getting Montana at less than a touchdown is excellent value. This is a key number in football betting, and the Grizzlies landing there makes them an auto-play.

Sac State coach Brennan Marion talked up his team’s ground game this week, calling his running back room “the best in the nation.” They’ll need every bit of that depth with two all-conference backs, Savon Red and Jamar Curtis, still sidelined with injuries. Rodney Hammond Jr. has carried the load with 501 yards and five touchdowns.

Montana Offensive Stats

The Grizzlies have dominated this series historically, going 21-4 all-time against Sacramento State. But recent meetings between these two have been tight, with three of the last five decided by a single score. That’s why the sharps grabbed the points early.

Montana’s defense has been stout when it matters most. They’re allowing just 22.6 points per game and holding opponents to 57% touchdown rates in the red zone. Compare that to Sac State’s 64% red zone defense, and you can see where Montana has the edge in crucial situations.

This feels like a game where Montana jumps out early and forces Sacramento State to abandon their run-first identity. The Hornets haven’t proven they can win shootouts. Against FBS competition like San Diego State and Nevada, they managed just 12 and 23 points, respectively. Montana’s offense is a different animal than anything they’ve faced in conference play.

Coach Marion mentioned his team has had their “backs against the wall” since losing to Cal Poly. They’re treating every game like a playoff game now. The problem is Montana actually is playing for a top playoff seed. The Grizzlies have more talent, more balance, and more at stake.

Sacramento State vs Montana Line

The line opened at Montana -10.5 before sharp action crashed it down to the current -6. The moneyline shifted from -429 to -265, showing massive respect for the home team. But this overcorrection has created value on the road favorite.

The total ticked up from 61.5 to 62.5, which makes sense given both teams’ offensive capabilities. Per the college football public betting trends, the Grizzlies are receiving 76% of spread bets and 59% of spread handle. On the moneyline, Montana is receiving an overwhelming 99% of the handle.

Line Movement

Sacramento State sits around +215 on the moneyline, implying about a 32% chance to pull the upset. The Hornets are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs. Montana is 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall, and now you’re getting them at less than a touchdown? That’s a gift from the betting market.

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Sacramento State vs Montana How to Watch

Kickoff for this Big Sky battle is set for 7:30 PM PDT at Hornet Stadium in Sacramento, CA, with ESPN2 providing the broadcast coverage.

The forecast calls for perfect conditions with clear skies, 63-degree temperatures and light 3 mph winds that won’t affect either passing game.