Navy vs North Texas Prediction, Preview, Line & Trends – College Football Week 10

• The undefeated Navy Midshipmen are 6.5-point road underdogs against North Texas in Week 10 AAC action
• North Texas averages 46.1 points per game, leading the entire FBS
• Check out the Navy vs North Texas prediction, preview, line and trends for Saturday afternoon football

Talk about a clash of styles. The 7-0 Navy Midshipmen bring their triple-option attack to Denton to face the 7-1 North Texas Mean Green in a game that could decide the American Conference championship race.

Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET Saturday from DATCU Stadium in Denton, TX, with ESPN2 providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my Navy vs North Texas prediction, preview, line and trends for Saturday afternoon’s AAC showdown.

Navy vs North Texas Prediction

Navy’s perfect record is impressive, but they’ve struggled mightily against the spread lately. The Midshipmen are 0-4 ATS in their last four games and haven’t covered a number since mid-September. That’s a major red flag heading into this road test.

North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker just torched Charlotte for 608 passing yards and four touchdowns. He’s completing 67.7% of his passes this season with 21 touchdowns. The Mean Green are averaging 46.1 points per game, best in the entire country.

The matchup nightmare for Navy? Their pass defense is allowing 256.6 yards per game, and they just surrendered 339 yards through the air to Air Force. North Texas has too many weapons for Navy to handle, with Wyatt Young leading the way at 586 receiving yards.

Navy vs North Texas Key Stats

Yes, Blake Horvath has been solid for Navy with 814 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. But North Texas just gave up 324 rushing yards to USF and still only lost by seven. They can survive Navy’s ground attack if their offense keeps humming.

The real issue? This 65.5-point total implies a shootout, and North Texas has the edge there. The Navy’s run-heavy offense is solid, but it’s not on the same level as an explosive UNT offense that averages almost 500 yards per game.

When the Mean Green get rolling at home, opponents have to abandon their game plan and throw to catch up. Navy threw just 14 passes last week against Florida Atlantic. That won’t cut it in a track meet.

• Pick: North Texas -6.5. 

Look for the Mean Green’s explosive offense force Navy out of their comfort zone. I predict North Texas rolls at home, covering the 6.5-point spread and improving on their stellar 4-1 ATS mark in Denton.

Navy vs North Texas Preview

This game has massive implications for the College Football Playoff bracket. Navy is the only undefeated Group of Six team remaining, while North Texas ranks fourth in Group of Six playoff odds. The winner stays alive for the AAC’s automatic bid.

Navy’s schedule gets brutal after this. They face Notre Dame, USF, Memphis and Army to close the season. If they drop this one to North Texas, their playoff hopes are essentially done. An 11-1 Navy team with a conference championship could make history as the first service academy in the CFP.

For North Texas, this is their entire season. They’re sitting at 4-1 in conference play, but another loss might eliminate them from the championship game. Win this, though, and they could finish 11-1 with a legitimate shot at the playoff through tiebreakers.

The key matchup is Navy’s blitz-heavy defense against Mestemaker. Navy blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in college football, but Mestemaker has an 89.7 passing grade against standard rush. When teams blitz him, that drops to 71.7 with six turnover-worthy plays.

Navy vs North Texas Odds

The line opened at North Texas -5.5, but sharp money on the Mean Green pushed it to -6.5 and -7 at sportsbooks. That’s noteworthy movement through the key number of six. The total dropped from 66.5 to 65.5, though public money is still hitting the Over according to the college football public betting trends.

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Navy vs North Texas Trends

Trends Support North Texas Covering Spread

The trends paint a clear picture. North Texas has been automatic at home (4-1 ATS) and after wins (4-1 ATS). They’re coming off a 34-point demolition of Charlotte, and the Over has hit in all five games after they win by 20+.

Navy’s trends are concerning. They’re 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and 0-4 ATS after straight-up wins. The Midshipmen have won every game but can’t cover a spread to save their lives. That’s usually a sign of a team getting by on luck rather than dominance.

Most telling? North Texas is 4-0 to the Over after putting up 450+ yards in their previous game. They just racked up 608 passing yards alone against Charlotte. When this offense gets hot, it stays hot.

Head-to-Head History

There isn’t much history between these teams, but the 2023 game provides us with something to work with. Navy won 27-24 as road favorites, but North Texas covered as 6.5-point dogs.

The game stayed well under the 60-point total as Navy controlled the clock with 206 rushing yards. That’s exactly what they’ll try to do Saturday.