New Mexico vs Minnesota Prediction, Line & Latest Opt Outs (Dec. 26)

• Minnesota is a 1.5-point favorite over New Mexico in today’s Rate Bowl
• The Golden Gophers have won eight straight Bowl Games, the longest active streak in the FBS
• See my New Mexico vs Minnesota prediction, line and latest opt outs for the Rate Bowl below

Shockingly, the NFL has yet to take over Boxing Day, leaving college football as the only pigskin action in town today. We’ve got three Bowl Games to mark the occasion, highlighted by the New Mexico (9-3) vs Minnesota (7-5) showdown in the Rate Bowl.

The Lobos have been exceeding expectations all season, and I expect them to do so again today. They’re currently a short underdog in the latest college football odds, but the spread has been moving towards them all week.

The action is set for 4:30 pm ET from Chase Field, in Phoenix, AZ, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my New Mexico vs Minnesota prediction, plus the betting line and latest opt out news for the Rate Bowl.

New Mexico vs Minnesota Prediction

Most commercial books have dropped the New Mexico vs Minnesota line down to the Lobos +1.5, but you can find a +2.5 spread still out there if you shop around.

The Golden Gophers enter play riding an eight-game Bowl winning streak, the longest active mark in the FBS. However, the matchup metrics and the bill of health greatly favor New Mexico.

Let’s start with the play on the field. The Lobos rate significantly higher on both sides of the ball. They average 1.1 more yards per play on offense, while yielding 3 fewer points per game on defense.

New Mexico fields a balanced offensive attack, but would be wise to lean on the pass. QB Jack Layne is averaging 8.0 yards per attempt, while the Minnesota secondary is vulnerable. The Golden Gophers rank 132nd in opponent completion percentage and 111th in opponent yards per pass attempt. They’re surrendering nearly 240 yards per game through the air, and do a dreadful job of forcing turnovers.

As for the Minnesota offense, it’s as underwhelming as any Power 4 school in the country. The Golden Gophers run game is anemic, ranking outside the top-122 in yards per carry and per game. They’ll find zero success versus the Lobos on that front, as they yield just 3.4 yards per attempt, and rank 20th in rushing yards allowed.

To make matters worse, the Minnesota running back room has been hit with injuries and opt outs – as we’ll discuss. The passing attack meanwhile, is nearly as poor as the ground game. Freshman QB Drake Lindsey is averaging only 5.9 yards per attempt, and 190 yards per game. The New Mexico secondary isn’t opposing, but their front gets after the QB, ranking 11th in sack percentage.

The Golden Gophers fall behind the sticks early, often putting themselves too far behind the chains to extend drives. They rank 108th in early down success rate, and with a poor rushing outlook today, Lindsey is going to be constantly facing 3rd and long situations.

Minnesota Offensive Stats

The Lobos were pegged to finish 11th out of 12 teams in the Mountain West, but put together a 9-3 campaign in Year 1 under Jason Eck. They finished the season on a six-game winning streak, and had a legitimate case to be featured in the conference title game.

New Mexico set a school record for total offense this season, and are stout enough on defense to shut down this underwhelming Golden Gophers attack. I’ll take the points with the Lobos, but won’t be surprised if they win outright, ending Minnesota’s Bowl Game streak.

New Mexico vs Minnesota Betting Line

The best place to bet New Mexico currently is at BetRivers, who have the Lobos listed as 2.5-point underdogs. Most commercial books like Bet365 have the spread a full point lower, and would be the place to wager if you like the other side.

Total-wise, the number varies between 42.5 and 43.5, so be sure to shop around. If you expect a low-scoring game visit Bet365, however if you like the game to go over, DraftKings is the preferred choice to wager at.

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Odds as of Dec. 26 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on College Football Bowl Games.

Per the college football public betting trends, the under has been hit hard by sharp bettors. The total opened up at 49.5, but has dropped by as much as a full touchdown depending on where you wager.

New Mexico vs Minnesota Latest Opt Outs

Another reason to like New Mexico, is the fact that they have zero injuries or names featured in the college football opt outs tracker.

Minnesota on the other hand, is losing three players, most notably back-up RB Fame Ijeboi. That’s significant because lead back Darius Taylor has dealt with injuries all season, while the Golden Gophers lost AJ Turner, who started the season as RB2, just three games into the campaign.