New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction, Picks & Spread for Tuesday Night Football

• Liberty is a 10-point favorite over New Mexico State in Conference USA action on Tuesday night
• The total has dropped from 48.5 to 46.5, signaling sharp money on the under
• See below for my New Mexico State vs Liberty prediction and picks for Tuesday Night Football

Tuesday night football means one thing: you’re either a degen or you’re serious about your handicapping. Week 8 brings us a Conference USA clash that’s drawn notable market movement, with New Mexico State (3-2) traveling cross-country to face Liberty (2-4) in Lynchburg.

The betting line tells a story. Liberty opened as a 7.5-point favorite before sharp money pushed it to 10. Meanwhile, the total has crashed two full points from 48.5 to 46.5, which screams defensive struggle between two offenses that rank outside the top 100 in scoring.

Here is my New Mexico State vs Liberty prediction, and you can jump to specific sections below.

Prediction | Picks | Spread | Head-to-Head

New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction

My New Mexico State vs Liberty prediction is simple: take the under. Liberty averages just 352 yards per game while New Mexico State manages 311 YPG. Sharp money has hammered this total down two full points for a reason.

New Mexico State runs the nation’s worst rushing attack at just 50.6 yards per game. That forces them into a pass-heavy approach that ranks 43rd nationally at 261 yards per contest. Liberty’s defense is built to handle exactly that, ranking 12th in the country against the pass by allowing only 154 yards per game.

The Aggies average a miserable 1.9 yards per carry on 27 attempts per game. You can’t win like that, especially when you’re asking quarterback Logan Fife to throw on 56.9% of his passes against a secondary that’s suffocating opponents.

Liberty’s offense isn’t pretty either, averaging just 17.3 points per game. Quarterback Ethan Vasko averages 168 passing yards per game and has thrown for 1,006 yards with six touchdowns this season. The Flames lean on their ground game at 165 yards per contest, and that’s where they should dominate.

New Mexico State allows 153 rushing yards per game, which isn’t terrible. But when you pair that with an offense that can’t stay on the field, the Aggies’ defense will wear down. Liberty runs 41.2 times per game compared to just 25.5 pass attempts. Control the clock, limit possessions, keep the Aggies’ offense on the sidelines.

New Mexico State vs Liberty Picks

• Best Bet: Under 47 (-115 at Fanatics Best Line)
• Lean: Liberty -10

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The market has spoken loudly on this total. Two full points of movement from the opening number isn’t noise. It’s sharp money betting the under.

New Mexico State averages 22.2 points per game but has scored 14 or fewer in both losses this season. They managed just 14 against Louisiana Tech and 20 against New Mexico, games where their lack of a ground game caught up with them. Against Liberty’s 12th-ranked pass defense, expect more of the same struggles.

Liberty’s recent results paint a clear picture. They’ve played in 23-13, 19-8, and 21-7 games over the last month. This isn’t an offense built to blow teams out. They grind, they control tempo, they limit possessions.

New Mexico State Defensive Stats

The Aggies’ defense has been solid, holding opponents to 22.8 points per game. They’ve forced nine sacks and five interceptions this season, with Ezra Christensen leading the way with three sacks. But against a Liberty team that doesn’t need to throw much, that strength becomes less relevant.

One situational trend jumps off the page: New Mexico State is 4-0 to the under in their last four games after a blowout win. They’re coming off a 37-10 demolition of Sam Houston, which fits that profile perfectly. Liberty, meanwhile, is 1-5 to the under so far this season. When both teams have strong under trends and the total has already been hammered down, the market is telling you something.

Liberty should win this game. They’re the better team at home, and their defensive strength matches up perfectly against the Aggies’ offensive weakness. But covering 10 points requires scoring, and this offense has shown little ability to generate explosive plays.

New Mexico State vs Liberty Spread

Liberty is now a -10 favorite at college football betting apps, with some books offering 9.5 or 10.5. The Flames’ average -350 moneyline odds imply that Liberty has a 77.8% chance to win this Conference USA matchup.

The line movement from -7.5 to -10 suggests sharp money backing Liberty to control this game. But the drop in the total is the more telling indicator. When both the spread and total move in directions that suggest a low-scoring Liberty win, the market is pricing in a defensive grind.

Liberty should cover this number, but there’s risk involved. The Flames are the better team at home, and the matchup favors them in every way that matters. But covering 10 points with an offense that averages 17.3 points per game requires execution they haven’t shown consistently.

Head coach Jamey Chadwell boasts a 14-2 record at home. New Mexico State is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by an average of 12 points. They’ve been outscored 49-27 in second halves throughout the season, which suggests they fade late.

The betting trends favor Liberty. The Flames are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven home games versus teams with winning road records. New Mexico State is 0-6 ATS in their last six games on field turf.

But there’s a counterpoint. New Mexico State is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games against teams with losing home records. The Aggies have also shown they can keep games close when their defense plays well, holding three opponents to 14 or fewer points this season.

The concern with backing Liberty is simple: can this offense score enough to cover 10 points? They’ve scored 19 or fewer in four of six games this season. A 27-13 type final score wouldn’t surprise anyone, and that only covers by four points.

New Mexico State vs Liberty Head-to-Head

Recent history between these programs shows Liberty’s dominance. The Flames have won the last three meetings by scores of 30-24, 49-35, and 33-17.

Last year’s 30-24 game saw New Mexico State cover as a massive underdog. The Aggies totaled 473 yards compared to Liberty’s 275, including 217 rushing yards. That was a completely different New Mexico State team with a functional ground game. This year’s version can’t run the ball at all.

The 2023 CUSA Championship saw Liberty explode for 712 total yards, including 393 on the ground, in a 49-35 shootout. Earlier that season, Liberty won 33-17. The 2022 meeting went the other way, with New Mexico State winning 49-14 behind 214 rushing yards. The pattern is clear: whoever establishes the run wins.

The over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings between these teams, but that trend feels less relevant given how much both offenses have regressed. Liberty’s 17.3 points per game and New Mexico State’s 22.2 make the case for a low-scoring game.