North Carolina vs TCU Parlay Picks for Bill Belichick’s College Debut

• A dramatic 5.5-point line flip has seen TCU go from underdog to favorite on the road against North Carolina
• TCU vs UNC will be the first collegiate game for new Tar Heel coach Bill Belichick
• See my North Carolina vs TCU parlay picks for Monday night in Chapel Hill

Week 1 of the college football season culminates with a fascinating Big 12/ACC clash between the TCU Horned Frogs (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS 7-6 O/U in 2024) and North Carolina Tar Heels (6-7 SU, 2-10-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U in 2024) at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill at 8:00 pm ET on Sep. 1st.

This rare college Monday nighter kicks off the Bill Belichick era at UNC. The six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach spent his entire career to date (1975-2023) at the NFL level. Largely thanks to Belichick’s pedigree, UNC opened as a two-point home favorite in the look-ahead lines back in February. But that line completely flipped when the Week 1 odds reopened last Sunday, and TCU is now 3.5-point road chalk across the board.

While UNC was an FBS-worst 2-10-1 against the spread last season, they are being faded a little too hard in the Week 1 odds, and my North Carolina vs TCU parlay starts with a bet on the Tar Heels to cover, for reasons I’ll expand on below.

North Carolina vs TCU Parlay Picks

My three-leg parlay comes out to a massive +675 number, meaning a $100 bet would profit $675 if all three legs cash.

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose or a First Bet Safety Net up to $1,000!

Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New Customers only. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME365

CODE: DIME365

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $200

OR GET UP TO $1,000 BACK

CLAIM OFFER

UNC vs TCU Parlay Pick #1: UNC +3.5

This matchup is a classic battle of known versus unknown. The drastic line movement suggests that the initial odds favored North Carolina due to home-field advantage and, even more so, offseason buzz, but now the market has settled on the known commodity of TCU’s offense over the uncertainty of UNC’s new schemes and personnel.

For the Horned Frogs, junior quarterback Josh Hoover (3,949 passing yards, 27 TDs, 11 INTs in 2024) returns to pilot a fast-paced, air-raid offense that averaged over 312 passing yards per game last season. Hoover showcased his big-play ability in 2024, but also a tendency to struggle when pressured, a key factor to watch in this opener.

Facing an aggressive air raid attack in Week 1 will be the ultimate litmus test for Belichick’s overhauled defense. The home crowd at Kenan Stadium will be electric for his primetime debut, creating a loud and hostile environment for the visitors. With junior South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez getting the reins of the offense, North Carolina possesses the tools to attack a vulnerable TCU secondary, which has depth concerns and struggled in coverage, particularly from the nickel position. On offense, UNC should be able to create mismatches and exploit the middle of the field, forcing TCU’s defensive backs to make plays in space.

Playing at Kenan Stadium in a primetime season opener is a significant advantage for the Tar Heels, who have gone 4-1 in their last five night games at home and are 6-3 against the spread as a home underdog over the last three seasons. TCU, meanwhile, is just 2-4 ATS in their last six road openers and has historically been more prone to false starts in loud environments. At the new, more favorable odds, which passed through the key number of three, the value is on North Carolina at home.

The public was heavily backing the Horned Frogs early on, though the current college football public betting splits show the Tar Heels getting 63% of moneyline handle and exactly 50% of ATS handle.

UNC vs TCU Parlay Pick #2: Under 55.0

The total of 55.0 points anticipates a fair amount of scoring but has trended downwards from a high of 58.5. The line movement, which has been driven by 82% of game-total handle coming in on the under, indicates respect for North Carolina’s new defense and/or the potential early-season rust on offense.

TCU’s offense lives and dies with Josh Hoover’s arm. Last season, the Horned Frogs’ air-raid attack was potent, but Hoover’s performance dipped significantly under pressure, where his PFF grade was a concerning 51.7. North Carolina’s defense, while unproven in its new system, is expected to feature aggressive and exotic blitz packages designed to confuse quarterbacks.

If the Tar Heels’ front seven can generate consistent pressure, they could force Hoover into the hurried decisions and turnovers, which plagued him in 2024. If he has a clean pocket, however, he has the weapons to exploit a secondary that was vulnerable to deep shots last season.

UNC had five players register at least five sacks last season. Unfortunately for Bill Belichick and son, Stephen, who is UNC’s new defensive coordinator, not a single one is back this year. The addition of senior UConn transfer Pryce Yates attenuates those losses somewhat, but UNC’s pass rush is very much a question mark heading into Week 1.

At the end of the day, I’m trusting in the Belichicks to create pressure schemes that aren’t overly dependent on individual talent, one of the mains reasons I’m backing the under and UNC to cover the spread.

UNC’s 2024 trends are overly relevant given the amount of change on the roster and coaching staff, but the Tar Heels were a strong under bet in Mack Brown’s final season, going 5-8 O/U.

TCU vs North Carolina Parlay Pick #3: Eric McAlister 70+ Receiving Yards

Eric McAlister’s receiving yards prop of 69.5 is a key line to watch. As the undisputed top target, he should see heavy volume against a North Carolina secondary that is still building chemistry. As the WR2 behind Jack Bech (a second-round pick of the Raiders) last year, McAlister still piled up 762 yards in 11 games (69.3 YPG).

It’s stunning that his line has been set at last year’s season average when Bech – a 1,000-yard receiver – will no longer be commanding the largest target share.