Ohio State vs Michigan Betting Trends & History for Your Prediction

• Ohio State is a 10-point favorite over Michigan with a total of 43.5 at most books
• The Buckeyes are 9-2 ATS this season while Michigan is just 4-7 against the spread
• Read below for complete betting trends, head-to-head history, and public money breakdown

The rivalry game is finally here. No. 1 Ohio State heads to Ann Arbor as a 10-point favorite over No. 18 Michigan, and the betting market has been all over the place leading up to Saturday’s noon kickoff.

The Buckeyes are looking to snap a four-game losing streak to the Wolverines. Michigan is trying to play spoiler again as double-digit underdogs. Let’s break down what the numbers say about this year’s edition of The Game.

Jump to: Odds & Line Movement | Ohio State Trends | Michigan Trends | Head-to-Head History | Public Betting

Ohio State vs Michigan Odds & Line Movement

The line has moved significantly in the college football odds since opening. Books posted Ohio State -5.5 all the way back in May, and the number climbed steadily as both teams played out their schedules.

The spread peaked at Ohio State -13.5 on November 19-20, then dropped three full points over the past week. The current number sits at -10 to -10.5, depending on the book, showing clear buyback on Michigan.

Ohio State vs Michigan Current Odds

Odds as of Nov. 29. New customers can claim the FanDuel promo code and get a bonus to bet on college football.

The total has crashed even harder. It opened at 47.5 in the spring and has steadily dropped four points to the current 43.5. Sharp money has been pounding the under all season, with the juice now favoring under at most shops.

Ohio State ATS Performance 2025

The Buckeyes have been a covering machine this season. They’re 9-2 against the spread overall and 7-3 in their last 10 games, consistently beating market expectations.

Ohio State is 8-1 ATS against ranked teams since the start of last season, which ranks third-best in the FBS. They’re also 10-3 ATS in November or later over that same stretch, second-best among Power 4 teams.

Ohio State Last 5 ATS Results

The Buckeyes are a perfect 4-0 on the road this season. More importantly, they’ve gone under the total in all four conference road games, averaging just 39.5 combined points per outing.

Ohio State’s defense is the nation’s best. They rank first in total defense and scoring defense, allowing just 212.6 yards and 6.8 points per game. They’ve held every opponent to 16 points or fewer through 11 games.

Michigan ATS Performance 2025

The Wolverines have been a different story. Michigan is just 4-7 ATS this season and 4-6 in their last 10 games, failing to cover 60% of the time.

As underdogs specifically, Michigan is 0-2 ATS in 2025. Since 2019, they’re 0-3 ATS as a home underdog of seven points or more, losing those games by an average of 29.3 points.

Michigan Last 5 ATS Results

Michigan’s defense has been strong at home in conference play. They’ve allowed just 11 points and 225 yards per game in three Big Ten home contests. All three of those games stayed under the total, averaging 34 combined points.

The Wolverines have gone 6-4 on the over/under in their last 10 games. They’re allowing 17.91 points per game overall, solid but nowhere near Ohio State’s elite 7.64 mark.

OSU vs Michigan Head-to-Head Betting History

The underdog has dominated this rivalry from a betting perspective. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams.

Last 5 Ohio State vs Michigan Results

Michigan has covered four straight in this series, while Ohio State is 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings. The Wolverines covered as a massive 19.5-point underdog last year, winning outright 13-10.

The over has dominated this series. It’s hit in eight of the last nine meetings overall and is 7-0 in the last seven games played in Ann Arbor. The average combined score in the last nine contests is 60.4 points, well above this year’s 43.5 total.

Last year’s 13-10 Michigan win was the only under in the last nine games. Before that, you have to go back over a decade to find a defensive struggle in this rivalry.

Ohio State vs Michigan Public Betting Breakdown

The public betting splits reveal some interesting contrarian angles. The spread is essentially square, with Ohio State getting 54% of bets and 55% of the money. No sharp lean there.

OSU vs Michigan Betting Percentages

The moneyline shows sharp interest on Michigan. The Wolverines are getting just 11% of tickets but 29% of the money at +310. That 18-point gap suggests bigger bettors see value on the home underdog to win outright.

The total is where the sharp action is. The under is getting only 46% of tickets but 68% of the money. That 22-point discrepancy points to professional bettors hammering the under 43.5.

What the Trends Tell Us

Ohio State’s season-long dominance ATS conflicts directly with their recent history in this rivalry. The Buckeyes are covering at a 70% clip overall, but haven’t covered against Michigan in four years.

The total has the clearest angle. Sharp money has driven the number down four points from the opener, and both teams’ defensive metrics support a lower-scoring game. Ohio State’s road conference games are averaging under 40 combined points, and Michigan’s home conference contests are averaging 34.

The head-to-head over trend is strong at 7-0 in Ann Arbor. But last year’s defensive struggle suggests these teams might be shifting toward a different style. With Ohio State allowing just 6.8 points per game and Michigan’s home defense locked in, something has to give.

History says take Michigan and the points. The numbers say trust Ohio State’s elite defense. The sharp money says bet the under and watch two of the nation’s best defenses go to war.

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