Opening 2026 Heisman Odds, Predictions & Best Longshot Bets

• Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza won the 2025 Heisman Trophy over Diego Pavia
• Arch Manning opens as the 2026 Heisman favorite at +750 odds
• Keep reading for the full 2026 Heisman odds board, best bets, and longshot picks

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The 2026 Heisman Trophy race is officially underway. After an exciting 2025 Heisman race, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza won in a close vote over Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia. Jeremiyah Love of Notre Dame and Julian Sayin of Ohio State rounded out the New York-bound finalists.

With the 2025 Heisman ceremony in the books, sportsbooks have released their opening 2026 Heisman odds. Arch Manning leads the Heisman betting board as the favorite, followed by Notre Dame’s CJ Carr and Ohio State duo Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith.

Continue reading for the full 2026 Heisman odds, my Heisman predictions, and the best longshot bets to consider.

Opening 2026 Heisman Odds

Arch Manning is the early Heisman betting favorite, just as he was to open the 2025 season. Manning’s +750 odds give him 11.8% implied win probability.

2025 finalist Julian Sayin, meanwhile, opens at +1700 (5.6% implied chance).

All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook on Jan. 15, 2026. Check out where to bet legally in the US on the Heisman.

Top Heisman Best Bets

Julian Sayin, Ohio State Quarterback, +1100 Odds

A finalist in 2025, Sayin amassed north of 3,300 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns in his true sophomore season. He currently leads the nation in completion percentage and total completions.

Sayin is the perfect combination of being a returning quarterback on a title favorite as Ohio State is likely to be the championship favorite in 2026. Keep in mind Sayin’s No.1 target, Jeremiah Smith, is also returning to Columbus.

Arch Manning, Texas Quarterback, +750 Odds

The Heisman favorite entering 2025 and 2026, Arch Manning turned it on late in the season for the Longhorns. He had multiple touchdowns in four of his last five games, leading the Longhorns to key wins over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M in November.

Arch Manning’s first regular season as a starter:

🟠 227/370 (61.4%)
🟠 2,942 Passing Yards
🟠 24 Passing TD
🟠 7 INT

🏃🏻‍♂️83 Carries
🏃🏻‍♂️244 Rushing Yards
🏃🏻‍♂️ 8 Rushing TD

The future is bright in Austin, Texas 🤘🏻

📸: @noahgoldbergphoto pic.twitter.com/2r3rLGuGoz

— One Stop Texas (@OneStopHorns) November 30, 2025

Manning was eligible to declare for the draft, but he opted to return to Austin. Texas has revamped its offense with additions such as Auburn’s Cam Coleman and NC State’s Hollywood Smothers. The Manning to Coleman connection should be particularly lethal, and both players could find their way into the top 10 in the 2027 NFL Draft.

Dante Moore, Oregon Quarterback, +1300 Odds

Dante Moore opted to stay in college football for another season. The Oregon quarterback was particularly good down the stretch. He threw for at least 250 yards and contributed multiple touchdowns in each of the last three games, fueling Oregon to an 11-1 season and a No.5 ranking in the CFP.

The UCLA transfer (after 2023) had his struggles in the CFP, throwing as many picks as touchdowns, but he did lead the Ducks to a gritty win over Texas Tech before succumbing to Indiana for the second time. Moore surpassed 3,500 passing yards and 30 touchdowns.

With Oregon’s offensive coordinator Will Stein leaving for Kentucky, Moore will have to adjust to a new offense, but the floor is quite high given the returning talent for Oregon’s offense. Sophomore receiver Dakorien Moore should pop after a solid true freshman season.

Heisman Longshots to Consider

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, California Quarterback, +7000 Odds

After a productive true freshman season, Sagapolutele will return to Cal and continue to develop. In 2025, Sagapolutele completed 63.6% of his passes, throwing for 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He threw for over 3,100 yards, including a healthy 330 yards in Cal’s last game to shock SMU.

Byrum Brown, Auburn Quarterback, +3500 Odds

Byrum Brown is transferring away from USF to follow head coach Alex Golesh at Auburn. At USF, Brown has two massive seasons: 2023 and 2025. In those seasons, he topped 3,100 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 800 rushing yards, and 10 rushing touchdowns. If he were to match that production at a power program, he would be a Heisman contender.

Non-Quarterbacks to Consider for Heisman

Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State Wide Receiver, +1100 Odds

The best player in college football and a true sophomore, Jeremiah Smith, is the best chance for a non-quarterback to win the Heisman. In two seasons in Columbus, he has two 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown seasons. In 2024, he led the Big Ten in both receiving yards and touchdowns. This season, he leads the conference in catches and yards.

Smith, notably, will keep his connection with his quarterback, Julian Sayin. Often, this calculus leads the quarterback to winning the Heisman (Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase for 2019 LSU, for example), but Smith’s path could resemble that of DeVonta Smith, who won the Heisman in 2020.

Malachi Toney, Miami (FL) Wide Receiver, +2500 Odds

The best true freshman regardless of position in 2025, Toney amassed 1,059 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns in the regular season. He also threw multiple touchdowns and returned punts for the Hurricanes. The ACC leader in receiving touchdowns is the best facsimile of 1991 Heisman Desmond Howard in his multi-faceted offensive game.

Malachi Toney is the most talented young player in the country

Sky is the limit, Miami has a unicorn pic.twitter.com/7AmOfQRdg1

— CFBTalkDaily (@CFBTalkDaily) November 22, 2025

In 2025, Toney had three games with at least 125 receiving yards. He surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in Miami’s CFP run. Toney benefits from being the focal point of a likely CFP offense in 2026, regardless of who plays quarterback for the ‘Canes.

Caleb Hawkins, Oklahoma State Running Back, Odds TBD

Hawkins ran for 1,236 yards and 23 touchdowns in his true freshman season, leading the country in rushing touchdowns and total touchdowns (26). With North Texas’ head coach Eric Morris leaving for Oklahoma State, Hawkins is following him to Stillwater.

A recent example of this phenomenon is Ahmad Hardy. In 2024, Hardy led the Sun Belt in rushing and rushing touchdowns while at ULM. He transferred to Missouri, eventually leading the SEC in rushing yards and yards per carry in 2025. Hawkins, if he transfers to a Power 4 school, could follow that path toward being a Heisman contender in 2026.

Last Five Heisman Winners

Fernando Mendoza is the fourth straight transfer to win the Heisman. He is also the fourth quarterback in five seasons, highlighting the strategy for picking future Heisman winners. While running backs still have the plurality of Heisman winners, quarterbacks have dominated in recent seasons.

Of the last four Heisman winners, two won it immediately after transferring (Williams, Mendoza) and two won it in their second season after transferring (Daniels, Hunter). It is worth noting that even with the rise of transfer quarterbacks winning the Heisman, previous quarterbacks transferred from Power 4 programs. This includes Mendoza transferring from Cal, Daniels transferring from Arizona State, and Williams transferring from Oklahoma. From an older vintage, Cam Newton (Florida), Baker Mayfield (Texas Tech), Kyler Murray (Texas A&M), and Joe Burrow (Ohio State) all started at Power 4 programs.

Notably, Travis Hunter transferred from FCS Jackson State up to Colorado before winning the Heisman, but he is a true outlier as a two-way player.