Oregon vs Indiana Picks & Odds: Betting Expert Sees All the Value on One Side

• Indiana is a 3 to 3.5-point favorite over Oregon in Friday’s Peach Bowl
• The Hoosiers beat the Ducks 30-20 in Eugene as 7-point underdogs on October 11th
• See my Oregon vs Indiana expert pick, odds and why all the value is on one side

No. 1 Indiana (14-0) faces No. 5 Oregon (13-1) in Friday’s College Football Playoff semifinal at the Peach Bowl. This is a direct rematch from October 11th when the Hoosiers traveled to Eugene and won outright 30-20 as 7-point underdogs.

Indiana has the nation’s second-ranked scoring defense (10.3 PPG) and third-ranked offense (41.6 PPG). Oregon enters with significant injury issues at running back, losing starter Jordon Davison (667 yards, 15 TDs) to a broken collarbone.

Kickoff is 7:30 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on ESPN. Here is my expert Oregon vs Indiana pick, plus a look at the latest odds.

Oregon vs Indiana Expert Pick

• Pick: Indiana -3

My Oregon vs Indiana prediction focuses on Indiana -3 as the best value. The Hoosiers were the better team in their first meeting, outgaining Oregon 326-267 in total yards and controlling time of possession 33:10 to 26:50.

Indiana dominated on the ground (111 yards on 37 carries) while Oregon managed just 81 yards on 30 attempts. The Hoosiers held a 2-1 turnover edge and the game was tied 20-20 with 12 minutes left before Indiana scored the final 10 points.

Indiana’s defense sacked Dante Moore six times, generating pressure on 48% of his dropbacks. Oregon went 0-for-3 in the red zone from an offensive touchdown perspective. Moore completed just 4-of-13 passes thrown seven yards or more downfield.

Indiana vs Oregon First Meeting (Oct. 11)

Indiana’s Offensive Firepower

Since that October meeting, Indiana dominated Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal. The Hoosiers rushed for 199 yards on 34 carries while holding the Crimson Tide to just 193 total yards.

Oregon beat Texas Tech 23-0 in the Orange Bowl but lost Davison to a broken collarbone in that game. Leading rusher Noah Whittington (829 yards) was added to the injury report Thursday and is dealing with what appears to be a flu-like illness, making him a game-time decision.

Indiana ranks 10th nationally averaging 220.7 rushing yards per game. Roman Hemby has 1,007 rushing yards, while Kaelon Black gives them a physical two-back tandem. The Hoosiers rank sixth nationally in time of possession at 33:25 per game.

Defensive Dominance

Defensively, Indiana allows 10.3 points and 252.6 yards per game (both 2nd nationally). Their rushing defense surrenders only 73.7 yards per contest (2nd in FBS). The Hoosiers rank second nationally with 118 tackles for loss and fifth with 42 sacks compared to Oregon’s 29.

Indiana’s red zone defense leads the nation. The Hoosiers have allowed only six touchdowns in 23 red zone trips this season (26.09%), over 8% better than any other team.

Third Down Matchup

The third down numbers are lopsided. Indiana leads the nation with a 56.47% conversion rate on third down, while their defense allows opponents to convert just 28.02% of the time. Oregon ranks 41st in third-down defense, allowing 35.29%.

Mendoza vs Oregon’s Injuries

Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy this season with 36 touchdown passes and a nation-leading 184.7 passer rating. His 72.3% completion percentage reflects consistent execution. Against Alabama in the Rose Bowl, Mendoza completed 14-of-16 passes (87.5%) for 192 yards and three touchdowns with a bowl-record 250.2 passer rating.

Oregon lost Davison (15 rushing touchdowns, 5.9 YPC) and may be without Whittington. True freshman Dierre Hill Jr. (570 yards, 8.1 YPC, 5 TDs) would be asked to handle a heavy workload against the nation’s second-ranked rush defense.

Execution Edge

Indiana ranks first nationally in turnover margin (+1.29 per game), giving the ball away just 0.6 times per game versus Oregon’s 0.9. The Hoosiers commit only 3.4 penalties per contest (3rd nationally) compared to Oregon’s 5.2 (33rd).

Despite 77-82% of bets landing on Indiana, the line has moved from -4 to -3.5 at some books. Sharp global books remain at -4.

Four of five previous CFP rematches have been won by the team that lost the regular-season meeting. Oregon enters with revenge motivation, but Indiana has defied every historical trend this season. The Hoosiers were the only bye team to win in the quarterfinals, beating Alabama by 35 after every other top-seeded bye team had gone 0-7.

Oregon vs Indiana Latest Odds

The Indiana spread varies by book, with sharp global books at -4 and recreational books between -3 and -3.5. Both Caesars and BetMGM have Indiana -3 available, but BetMGM offers the better price at -110 compared to Caesars at -115. The number three is the most common margin in football betting.

The total sits at 47, down from the first meeting that totaled 50 (30-20 final). Both defenses rank top 5 nationally.

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Odds as of January 9th. Bet on the Peach Bowl with the best college football betting apps.

Indiana -3 or -3.5 is the best Oregon vs Indiana pick. The Hoosiers have superior lines, overwhelming third-down efficiency, elite red zone defense, and a Heisman-winning quarterback. The 30-20 victory in Eugene wasn’t a fluke. Check out the best online sportsbooks for the latest lines.