Oregon vs Indiana Prediction Best Early-Week Bet for Peach Bowl CFP Semifinal

• Indiana beat Oregon 30-20 in Week 7
• Indiana opens as a 3.5-point favorite in the Peach Bowl Playoff semifinal
• Sharp money is backing the Under despite public love for the Over

Heisman jinx?

Fernando Mendoza dismissed that notion as Indiana dominated Alabama 38-3 in a Playoff quarterfinal. That defining victory moved the top-seeded Hoosiers into the Peach Bowl Playoff semifinals, where they’ll face Oregon — again — for a spot in the national championship. Kickoff is 7:30 pm, ET, Friday, Jan. 9 (ESPN) inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Indiana beat Oregon 30-20 in Week 7 in Eugene, a victory that stamped the Hoosiers as legitimate national title contenders.

That was Oregon’s only loss of the season. The Ducks earned a trip to the Playoff semifinals by knocking off JMU in the opening round and routing Texas Tech 23-0 in the quarterfinals.

Can the Ducks contain Mendoza and spoil IU’s Cinderella run? Or can the Hoosiers take the next step in their quest to become college football’s first 16-0 champion?

The betting market has installed Indiana as 3.5-point favorites. We break down the Peach Bowl and offer our best bet.

College Football Playoff Semifinal Prediction: Best Bets for Oregon vs Indiana

The rematch dynamic fundamentally shapes this betting landscape, with Oregon entering as a motivated underdog carrying the weight of redemption against an Indiana team that has exceeded every expectation. The neutral-site environment in Atlanta’s dome eliminates traditional advantages, placing premium value on execution and depth.

Spread Analysis: Indiana -3.5 (-110)

For what it’s worth, our AI analysis favor the Ducks to cover the spread. The revenge angle provides compelling value on Oregon catching points in what should be a tightly contested battle. The Ducks have performed well against the spread as underdogs this season, demonstrating their ability to rise to challenges when written off. More important, Oregon has a strong record against the spread in neutral-site games over the past three seasons, with their championship-caliber talent often shining on college football’s biggest stages.

However, this Indiana team has proven, time and again, it can win games in multiple ways. It can win with defense — as it did in holding Ohio State to a lone touchdown in the Big Ten Championship, and then Alabama to 3 points and 193 yards. It can win with offense — as it did in scoring at least 30 in wins over Oregon and the Tide (and eight other games this season).

Mendoza has made clutch throws when big moments arrived. Along the way, the Hoosiers have answered every challenge. Their defense has consistently come up with big plays, fueling the nation’s best turnover margin (+18). They intercepted Oregon’s Dante Moore twice in the win at Eugene.

Indiana should have earned your trust months ago, back in Eugene. But the Hoosiers erased whatever little trepidation that remained in beating Ohio State and Alabama.

The Hoosiers aren’t simply a great story; they are an outstanding football team.

We don’t think the story ends in Atlanta. We think laying 3.5 points and trusting Indiana to cover is the best Peach Bowl bet.

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Public vs Sharp Money: Reading the Betting Market

The college football public betting patterns reveal a fascinating divide between casual enthusiasm and professional analysis, creating potential value opportunities for sharp-eyed bettors.

Moneyline & Spread: Hoosier Hype Meets Oregon Value

Public sentiment strongly favors Indiana across both markets, with a significant percentage of moneyline tickets backing the Hoosiers. However, the money distribution tells a different story — while Indiana attracts a majority of the total handle, Oregon’s portion comes from significantly larger average wagers. This disparity typically indicates sharp money finding value on the underdog.

The spread market shows even stronger Indiana support, capturing a high percentage of bets and the majority of the money. This alignment between public and large-money bettors suggests confidence in the Hoosiers’ ability to cover, but creates potential contrarian value on Oregon given the revenge narrative and neutral-site equalizer.

Total Market: Classic Sharp vs Public Split

The Over/Under presents a textbook example of recreational vs. professional betting patterns. Public money heavily favors the Over, drawn by the offensive firepower and dome environment. However, sharp action leans toward the Under, with larger average wagers accounting for a notable portion of the total handle from a smaller percentage of bets.

This discrepancy aligns with historical patterns where professional bettors fade public totals in high-profile games, particularly when the line exceeds 45 points. The sharp money recognizes that playoff pressure often leads to conservative game plans and tighter defensive execution.

Oregon vs Indiana Odds

Current betting lines for the College Football Playoff semifinal matchup:

• Moneyline: Indiana -181, Oregon +150
• Spread: Indiana -3.5 (-113) / Oregon +3.5 (-107)
• Total: Over/Under 46.5 (Over -114 / Under -106)

Odds as of January 6, 2026, at 9:37 AM EST from consensus sportsbooks.

The market clearly favors Indiana’s proven ability to execute in high-pressure situations, with the -181 moneyline price implying significant confidence in the Hoosiers’ championship credentials. The 3.5-point spread reflects respect for Oregon’s talent while acknowledging Indiana’s superior situational performance throughout the season.

Based on the current moneyline odds with vig removed, the implied probabilities are:

• Indiana Hoosiers: Probability 64.1%
• Oregon Ducks: Probability 40%

For moneyline bettors, a successful $10 wager on favored Indiana (-181) returns $5.52 in profit, while a winning $10 bet on underdog Oregon (+150) yields $15.00 in profit.