Oregon vs Iowa Prediction, Preview, Line & H2H History

• #9 Oregon travels to Iowa City to face #20 Iowa in a critical Big Ten battle
• The Ducks are holding steady as -6.5 favorite at most sportsbooks
• Check out our Oregon vs Iowa prediction, preview, line and historical matchup data

The College Football Playoff picture gets clearer Saturday when #9 Oregon visits #20 Iowa in what could be the weekend’s most intriguing defensive battle. The Ducks (7-1) carry the nation’s longest road winning streak into Iowa City, while the Hawkeyes (6-2) desperately need to snap their 11-game skid against ranked opponents.

Oregon enters fresh off a bye week following their gritty 21-7 victory over Wisconsin. That performance raised concerns as the Ducks managed just 132 passing yards, their lowest output under Dan Lanning.

Iowa also enjoyed extra preparation time after demolishing Minnesota 41-3, their most lopsided Big Ten victory since 2020. Remarkably, the Hawkeyes scored 40-plus points despite gaining just 274 total yards.

The 3:30 PM ET kickoff from historic Kinnick Stadium airs on the Big Ten Network. Weather could be a factor, with possible snow in the forecast. Those conditions typically favor Iowa’s grind-it-out style.

Let’s break down my Oregon vs Iowa prediction and examine the latest Week 11 betting trends.

Oregon vs Iowa Prediction

Defense wins championships, and Saturday’s clash features two of the nation’s stingiest units. The total opened low at 43.5 but has plummeted to 42.5 at most books, with sharp sportsbooks like Pinnacle showing 41.5.

Oregon’s pass defense ranks first nationally, allowing just 124.6 yards per game through the air. That’s a nightmare matchup for Mark Gronowski, who averages only 118.3 passing yards per contest, lowest among Power Conference starting quarterbacks.

Oregon vs Iowa Offensive Stats

Gronowski doesn’t need to air it out, though. The South Dakota State transfer has rushed for touchdowns in every single game this season, tying Iowa’s single-season QB rushing TD record with 11. He’s the winningest quarterback in college football history at any level with 55 victories.

Dante Moore faces his toughest test yet. The Oregon quarterback struggled mightily against Indiana’s defense, throwing two interceptions and taking six sacks. His numbers against the Hoosiers tell the story: 61.8% completion rate, 5.5 yards per attempt, and just 186 passing yards.

Ducks vs Hawkeyes Defensive Stats

Iowa’s defense has been otherworldly lately. They haven’t allowed a passing touchdown in their last three-plus games, spanning 77 opponent attempts. The 234.9 total yards they’re surrendering per game would be their stingiest mark since 1957.

Oregon freshman Jordon Davison emerged against Wisconsin with 102 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries. He’ll need another big day against Iowa’s run defense, which ranks third in the Big Ten, allowing just 83.9 yards per game on the ground.

The X-factor? Kaden Wetjen. Iowa’s electric return specialist leads the nation with 25.7 yards per punt return. Oregon has allowed negative-1 punt return yards all season, but I predict Wetjen will still manage 45-50 return yards Saturday.

Weather conditions and elite defenses point toward a rock fight. Iowa owns a remarkable 21-2 November record over their last 23 games in the month. Kirk Ferentz’s teams historically improve as temperatures drop.

Oregon hasn’t scored on an opening drive in five Big Ten attempts this season. That slow-start tendency could prove costly in Kinnick Stadium, where the crowd noise reaches deafening levels. Iowa’s offensive line, with all five starters ranking top-10 in the Big Ten per PFF, should create enough push for Gronowski to move the chains.

• Oregon vs Iowa Predicted Score: Iowa 20, Oregon 17
• Oregon vs Iowa Picks: Iowa +6.5 (-110)
• Under 42.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

UNDERDOG
SPORTSBOOK NC

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $100 in Bonus Bets from Underdog Sportsbook!

21+ only. NC only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 877-718-5543 or visit morethanagame.nc.gov.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

CODE: SBDNC

CODE: SBDNC

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $100

GET THE APP

Oregon vs Iowa Preview

Oregon still controls its playoff destiny despite its stumble in October against Indiana. The Ducks’ 10-game road winning streak, second-longest in program history, faces its sternest test yet in Iowa City.

Dan Lanning boasts a perfect 31-0 record against unranked opponents. This Iowa team differs from typical unranked foes, though. The Hawkeyes’ only losses came to Indiana (who injured Gronowski) and Iowa State, who won by a field goal in the second game of the year.

Kirk Ferentz, at 70 years old, brings 31 years more experience than Lanning. The Iowa legend was already coaching offensive lines when Oregon last visited Kinnick in 1989. Lanning was just three years old then. Since nearly retiring in 2020, Ferentz has embraced NIL and the transfer portal while maintaining Iowa’s defensive identity.

Oregon’s freshman class has been phenomenal. Dakorien Moore leads the team with 28 receptions and 443 receiving yards, one of just six FBS freshmen pacing their squad in both categories. On defense, Brandon Finney Jr. has been lockdown, allowing just three completions on 21 targets (14.3%).

The Ducks’ explosive offense meets its match Saturday. Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker has mastered the art of eliminating big plays. Oregon thrives on chunk gains, ranking among the nation’s leaders in plays of 20-plus and 40-plus yards.

TJ Hall anchors Iowa’s secondary with nine passes defended in eight games. Opposing quarterbacks complete just 41.5% of passes when targeting his coverage area, best in the Big Ten among defenders with 30-plus targets.

Oregon commits fewer turnovers than any team in college football under Lanning, just 0.73 giveaways per game since 2022. However, five of their 36 turnovers in that span occurred during a two-game October stretch, indicating some vulnerability under pressure.

The forecast calls for classic November Big Ten weather. Oregon’s only road loss in two years came in similar conditions at Washington. Moore took heavy hits in the Wisconsin monsoon, leaving early with a bloody nose.

Oregon vs Iowa H2H History

Oregon holds a 2-1 series advantage, though these programs haven’t met in over 30 years. The Ducks’ 44-6 victory in their last trip to Iowa City remains the second-largest margin by any Kinnick Stadium visitor over the past 50 years. Saturday marks their inaugural meeting as Big Ten foes.

Oregon vs Iowa Line

Odds as of Friday at top-rated CFB sportsbooks. Shop around at the best sports betting sites before placing your Oregon vs Iowa wagers.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET $1,500
BACK

BET NOW

The Ducks opened as 6.5-point favorites before some money on Iowa shortened the line to Oregon -4.5. However, there has been buyback on the Ducks to bring it back to the opening number. Iowa is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games and 3-0-1 ATS versus teams with winning records. Oregon counters at 5-3 ATS overall this season.

The total has crashed from 43.5 to 42.5, with sharp books like Pinnacle showing 41.5. The Over has hit in Iowa’s last four games after allowing fewer than 20 points, but with potential snow and two elite defenses, the Under is the sharper play Saturday.