Penn State vs Oregon Prediction & Closing Odds for Week 5

• #3 Penn State is a 3.5-point favorite over #6 Oregon on Saturday in Week 5
• The Nittany Lions and Ducks are tied for the second shortest odds to win the National Championship
• See below for my Penn State vs Oregon prediction and closing odds for Week 5 below

One of the most anticipated matchups of the early college football season goes down tonight in Happy Valley, as #3 Penn State (3-0) hosts #6 Oregon (4-0). Online sportsbooks are siding with the Nittany Lions in the college football odds, but I’m going to bypass picking an outright winner in my Penn State vs Oregon prediction, and focus instead on the under.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm ET from Beaver Stadium, in University Park, PA, with NBC providing the broadcast coverage.

Penn State vs Oregon Prediction

• Under 53.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

This showdown is not only a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship game, but it’s also a clash of two of the top-three contenders in the CFP National Championship odds. The Ducks prevailed in a wild conference championship game 45-37, but that was on a neutral, indoor stadium.

Tonight’s contest is the annual Penn State “Whiteout” in Happy Valley, which is one of the most electrifying atmospheres in the sport. The noise will be deafening, and I anticipate it’s going to be one of the reasons Oregon fails to live up to offensive expectations.

Make no mistake, the Ducks appear to be a juggernaut, but they’ve yet to face a legitimate defense. Oregon’s four wins have come against teams ranked outside the top-80. Dante Moore is getting Heisman Trophy odds buzz for his exceptional start, but let’s pump the brakes on labelling him next year’s #1 pick.

Moore has never faced a defense like the Nittany Lions. Penn State’s defensive line is ferocious, ranking ninth in pass rush grade. They’re holding enemy quarterbacks to 5.1 yards per attempt, and only 137 yards per game. Thinking about running on them instead, forget it. The Nittany Lions defense is second in EPA per rush, yielding barely 3 yards per carry.

Penn State Defensive Stats

Granted, the competition for the Nittany Lions hasn’t been elite either, but their defensive stats are staggering. They’re eighth in yards allowed, fifth in yards surrendered per play, and number one in the country in scoring defense.

On the other side of the ball, it’s concerning that the inferior competition hasn’t led to more passing success for Drew Allar and Penn State. Entering play, Allar ranks 65th in EPA per pass, 75th in yards per pass, and 89th in explosive pass rate. Oregon will be far and away the toughest defense he’s faced to date, and their defensive metrics are nearly as impressive as Penn State’s. The Ducks are also top-eight in yards allowed, yards per play and scoring defense, surrendering only 8 points per contest so far.

The underwhelming passing game should encourage more rushing attempts for the Nittany Lions. Penn State is seventh in run block win rate and third in EPA per rush, and a run heavy approach would be a welcome sight for under backers like myself. You’re less likely to hit explosive plays on the ground, and heavy rushing volume drains the clock, reducing how many offensive snaps each side can get off.

Oregon vs Penn State Closing Odds

If you’re going to bet the under in this game like me, make sure to visit FanDuel. They’re posting a 53.5 point total, where most books are currently a point lower. If you’re targeting the over instead, hit up Bet365, as they have the shortest odds on over 52.5 at -110.

Penn State opened as 3.5 point favorites early in the week and that number hasn’t budged. Caesars has the best odds on that side of the spread at -105, while FanDuel is offering -106 odds on Oregon +3.5. If you like the Ducks to pull off the outright upset visit Caesars, as they’re offering the best payout at +152.

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Per the college football public betting trends, the Nittany Lions are just 4-20 straight up against top-10 teams under head coach James Franklin. Oregon meanwhile, is 8-2 against the spread versus ranked teams since 2023, which is the best mark in the FBS.