College Football Picks & Best Bets for Conference Championships 2025

• Conference Championship Weekend kicks off on Friday, Dec. 5
• #1 Ohio State and #2 Indiana rank first and third respectively in scoring defense
• See my favorite college football picks and best bets for the Conference Championships

Rivalry week turned out to be a dud, as just one of the top-14 teams in the country tasted defeat. That led to a pretty predictable set of conference championship games for this week, but that shouldn’t temper our excitement for what should be an electrifying slate of matchups.

Below, you’ll find my three favorite college football picks and best bets for the conference championships, followed by a detailed breakdown for each selection.

College Football Picks for Conference Championships

I’m starting my betting card with the under in the #2 Indiana vs #1 Ohio State showdown. The Big Ten title game will feature two of the best defenses in the country, and unders have been a cash cow in Buckeyes contests all year long.

I’m also taking the points with #11 BYU in its Big 12 Championship tilt with #5 Texas Tech, and betting Boise State to cover 3-points over UNLV in the battle for the Mountain West crown.

Odds as of Dec. 1. Check out the top college football betting apps to wager on for the conference championships.

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Indiana vs Ohio State Prediction

The opening college football conference championship odds pegged the over/under for the Big Ten Championship at 49.5, and it’s already come down a full point. Some books have even dropped the line to 48, and I expect the total to continue to fall.

That’s because both of these defenses are elite, with the Ohio State unit being historically great. The Buckeyes enter play ranked first in the nation in scoring defense, yards allowed per play and per game, and second in opponent third down conversion percentage. The National Championship odds favorites are also top-four in red zone scoring defense and sack percentage, and are virtually impossible to run against.

Ohio State Defense Stats

Indiana meanwhile, isn’t that far behind on the defensive side of the ball. The Hoosiers rank third in scoring defense, and top-six in yards per play, opponent third down conversion rate and takeaways.

Both programs also feature offenses led by Heisman Trophy odds contenders, but I’m skeptical they can turn this game into a shootout given the quality of each team’s defense. I’m especially bearish on Fernando Mendoza, who has underwhelmed against some of the best defenses he’s faced. In games against Penn State and Oregon, he failed to reach 220 passing yards, and threw just as many interceptions (2) as touchdowns (2).

As for the trends, the under is 8-4 in Ohio State games this season, and 3-0 against ranked opposition.

BYU vs Texas Tech Pick

BYU hasn’t surrendered 30 points all season, so asking Texas Tech to cover 13.5 points is a tall task regardless of how talented the Red Raiders are. Yes, Texas Tech did dominate the Cougars on the scoreboard in their first matchup, but benefitted greatly from three uncharacteristic BYU turnovers.

The Cougars actually won the time of possession battle in that matchup and enter play fresh off three straight double-digit wins. They’re top-30 in points per game and 11th in giveaways for the season, while ranking top-20 on defense in points allowed and opponent red zone scoring percentage. They generate pressure and force turnovers at a high rate, and are excellent versus the pass which is the Red Raiders biggest strength.

Another thing to consider is motivation for this game. Texas Tech has already secured its spot in the College Football Playoff, while the Cougars need to win to get in.

UNLV vs Boise State Best Bet

Last, but not least, let’s dive into UNLV vs Boise State. The Cougars dominated the Rebels 56-31 earlier this season, led by a 4 TD performance from Maddux Madsen, and 200+ rushing yards for Dylan Riley. I’m not calling for another blowout in the Mountain West title game, but I just don’t see how UNLV gets enough stops to compete.

The Rebels rank 78th in scoring defense, and 115th in yards per play. They’re 123rd in opponent red zone scoring percentage, while only a handful of teams allow more rushing yards per carry or per game.

That’s trouble against a Broncos program that averages 196 rushing yards per game, and nearly 6 yards per carry. Boise State has won 10 consecutive meetings in this rivalry, including two previous conference championship games.