College Football Player Props – Best Bets for Week 10 (Saturday, Nov. 1)

• Week 10 of the College Football season continues on Saturday, Nov 1
• Baylor ranks 123rd in rushing yards allowed this season
• See below for my favorite College Football player props and best bets for Week 10

The calendar turns to November on Saturday, meaning there’s only a handful of weeks remaining in the college football season. At this point, there’s enough data to separate the contenders from the pretenders, which helps us identify values in the college football player props market. Below you’ll find my three best bets for Week 10, and a detailed breakdown of why each selection stands out.

College Football Week 10 Player Props – Best Bets (Nov. 1)

My college football player props card starts with over 71.5 rushing yards for UCF running back Myles Montgomery. The senior RB draws a dream matchup this week, facing a Baylor run defense that can’t stop a nosebleed. I’m also targeting a pair of overs on QB passing yards, betting Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey to both exceed expectations.

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Week 10 College Football Player Prop: Miles Montgomery Rushing Yards

Let’s start with Montgomery, who is the Knights workhorse. He’s out touched his backup 112 to 42 this season, averaging 5.2 yards per carry with eight explosive runs. I expect him to increase both of those totals on Saturday versus one of the worst run defenses in the nation.

Baylor Run Defense Stats

The Bears rank 101st in yards allowed per carry, and 123rd in rushing yards surrendered. They’re outside the top-100 in PFF run defense grade, and are fresh off yielding 265 yards on the ground against Cincinnati.

Online sportsbooks are expecting a track meet between UCF and Baylor, listing the total at 60.5 points. The Knights are going to march up and down the field all game long, led Montgomery.

Week 10 College Football Player Prop: Fernando Mendoza Passing Yards

Moving on to Mendoza now, the current favorite in the Heisman Trophy odds. The junior pivot tossed 3 more TD last week, giving him 7 touchdown passes and 500 passing yards over his last two starts. Mendoza has cleared 250+ passing yards in only three starts this season, but as we get closer to December, his player of the year candidacy is going to depend on some big performances.

Saturday is opportunity for one of those games versus a Maryland defense that ranks middle of the pack in passing yards allowed. On paper, the Terps pressure numbers are impressive, but let’s see how much heat they can generate against one of the best O-lines in the country.

If you can’t pressure Mendoza, you don’t have a chance of slowing him down. In a clean pocket this season, the future Sunday star has thrown for 1,498 yards, 17 TD, a 9.2 yards per attempt, and a 90.3 PFF grade.

Week 10 College Football Player Prop: Drake Lindsey Passing Yards

Finally, let’s break down why Lindsey is in line for a ceiling game as a 3.5 point favorite versus Michigan State. The Spartans are outside the top-115 in defensive EPA/play and success rate. Their coverage unit grades out 113th per PFF, while their pass rush is nearly as bad ranking 95th.

Lindsey meanwhile, has been a bit of a school yard bully this season as a passer. He’s picked on the bad defenses, and struggled versus the good ones. The majority of his 200+ yard performances have come against poor secondaries, but none of them have graded out worse than the Spartans.

This is an opportunity for him to bully another defense, and I expect him to do so. Lindsey completes 65% of his passes from a clean pocket, and should have all day to pick apart Michigan State.