My Prediction for USF vs. North Texas, Best Bets & Odds

• Two American front-runners duel on Friday night
• Can North Texas remain unbeaten?
• Check out my South Florida vs North Texas prediction as well as the betting odds below

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In a game between potential College Football Playoff bid nabbers, the No.24 South Florida Bulls (4-1) head to Texas to face the North Texas Mean Green (5-0). DATCU Stadium in Denton plays host to the stadium’s first-ever sellout.

I’ve made my USF vs North Texas prediction for Friday evening, plus provided the latest betting odds and how you can watch.

South Florida vs North Texas Prediction

• My Prediction: Under 67 (-110, Fanatics)

With both teams possessing strong ground games, I am leaning toward under 67 in this South Florida vs North Texas showdown. USF and North Texas have combined to play in three games with a total of 60 or higher; the under has hit in all three games. Both defenses rank inside the conference’s Top 6 in scoring defense, with North Texas allowing 20 points per game and South Florida at 22.4 points per game.

South Florida is back in the AP Poll after wins over South Carolina State and Charlotte. They have been one of college football’s premier giant slayers this season, knocking off No.25 Boise State and No.13 Florida before succumbing to No.5 Miami (FL). South Florida is the second-highest ranked non-Power 4 school, giving them a solid shot to make the College Football Playoff.

Quarterback Byrum Brown is the heart and soul of the Bulls. He is the team’s leading rusher, and his passing is back to 2023 form. A bowling ball of a runner, Brown ran for a whopping 162 yards and a touchdown last week, in addition to his 211 passing yards and four passing touchdowns.

Byrum Brown was trying to truck EVERYONE in the first half 😤

Watch Boise State-USF now on ESPN and the ESPN App 👀 pic.twitter.com/LJ2746D1Es

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) August 28, 2025

Beyond Brown, the Bulls have four different backs with 20 or more carries and 120 or more yards. Taking out Brown’s sacks, the Bulls have averaged 6.0 yards per rush on the season, with three of their four running backs averaging at least 6.7 yards per carry.

Brown’s No.1 weapon is Tennessee transfer Chas Nimrod. He has hauled in 19 passes for 421 yards and three touchdowns. He has a pair of games with over 100 yards, including a season-best 128 yards against Miami. Keshaun Singleton has contributed 240 yards and two touchdowns in a secondary role.

Linebacker Mac Harris is the defensive player to watch. He leads the team with 4.5 tackles for a loss, 4.0 sacks, and three forced fumbles. He also had a 93-yard pick-six against South Carolina State.

North Texas is off to a roaring 5-0 start. After defeating FCS Lamar 51-0, they have knocked off Western Michigan, Washington, Army (in overtime), and South Alabama in succession. They have scored at least 33 points in all five games.

YOUR NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN ARE 5-0🟢🦅#BuiltToRise x #AmericanFB pic.twitter.com/3sWUphazX7

— The American (@American_Conf) September 27, 2025

Quarterback Drew Mestemaker has been a stud, recording 13 total touchdowns and zero interceptions. He leads the American in passing efficiency, and he has a sterling 90.0 PFF passing grade.

North Texas has a two-headed monster in the backfield with Caleb Hawkins and Makenzie McGill. McGill leads the team with 63 rushes and 318 yards, but Hawkins has been the more efficient back, averaging 7.3 yards per carry and scoring seven touchdowns on the ground (plus one as a receiver). Hawkins is PFF’s highest-graded running back.

The Mean Green have spread the rock around to an almost comical level. Seven different players have 100 receiving yards, with no player exceeding Miles Coleman’s 219 yards. Seven different players have caught a touchdown for the Mean Green, including defensive lineman Ethan Day.

Speaking of defense, look for linebacker Ethan Wesloski to provide the splash plays for the Mean Green. He has 6.0 tackles for a loss, 1.5 sacks, an interception, and a scoop-and-score on the season.

South Florida vs North Texas Pick

• Under 67 (-110, Fanatics)

Here are the main reasons I’m picking the Under in USF vs North Texas tonight:

• Both teams rank in the top 6 of the American Conference in scoring defense. North Texas is the top passing defense in the conference, allowing just 135.8 yards per game, while South Florida boasts a top-5 run defense at 132 yards per game.
• In level-up games against ranked opponents, USF has been particularly stingy defensively, holding Boise State to seven points and Florida to 16. This 68.5-point total feels inflated despite both offenses being capable.
• The under has hit in all three combined games where these teams faced totals of 60 or higher this season, suggesting the market may be overvaluing their offensive firepower in a high-stakes conference showdown.

South Florida vs North Texas Betting Odds

The sportsbooks have North Texas as slight home favorites with the total between 66.5 and 67 points. Over bettors can get over 66.5 for -110 odds at FanDuel. Under bettors can get under 67 at Fanatics for -110 odds.

North Texas bettors should take them +1 at bet365 (-115 odds) or -108 on the moneyline at FanDuel. South Florida bettors should take them +1.5 at ESPNBet (-110 odds) or +105 on the moneyline, also at ESPNBet.

Odds as of October 10, 2025, at consensus sportsbooks. Check out the best betting sites for college football tonight.

How to Watch USF vs North Texas Tonight

Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET on Friday, Oct. 10th, on an ESPN2 broadcast.

South Florida vs North Texas, Previous Matchups

USF and North Texas have not played since 2002, when South Florida was an FBS Independent and North Texas was in the Sun Belt. South Florida won matchups in both 2001 and 2002.

South Florida’s kicker in both matchups – Santiago Gramatica – is the uncle of the Bulls’ current kicker, Nico Gramatica. Three different Gramaticas have kicked for South Florida since they became a program in 1997.