By Brady Trettenero in College Football
Published:
Thursday night’s lone college football game features two Conference USA teams heading in opposite directions. The 0-4 Sam Houston Bearkats travel to Las Cruces to face the 2-2 New Mexico State Aggies in a matchup that could finally get one of these offenses on track.
Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET from Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, NM, with CBS Sports Network providing the broadcast coverage.
This might not be pretty, but it should be high-scoring. Both defenses have been torched through the air all season, and the matchup has the ingredients of a shootout despite the low offensive averages.
Sam Houston’s secondary has been a disaster, allowing 321.8 passing yards per game while surrendering over 70% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. New Mexico State quarterback Logan Fife should feast on this unit. The Aggies throw on 91% of their plays because their run game is nonexistent, averaging just 1.5 yards per carry.
On the flip side, the Bearkats finally get a secondary they can exploit. New Mexico State is giving up nine yards per pass attempt against offenses that average only 6.9 yards per attempt elsewhere. That’s a massive red flag.
The Bearkats implemented a new air raid offense under Phil Longo this season. It hasn’t clicked yet, but they’re coming off a bye week with extra time to prepare for New Mexico State’s vulnerable secondary. This is the perfect get-right spot.
Hunter Watson and the passing attack have struggled to 5.1 yards per attempt, but the Aggies’ defense allows nine yards per throw. Someone has to win that battle, and it won’t be the defense.
New Mexico State’s defense has been shredded in back-to-back weeks. Louisiana Tech hung 49 on them, then New Mexico dropped 38. The Aggies allow 173.5 rushing yards per contest, and while Sam Houston isn’t a great running team, they should find success on the ground to set up play-action.
With both offenses forced to pass and both secondaries leaking yards, expect a track meet. New Mexico State has no choice but to throw given their non-existent run game. Sam Houston wants to throw because that’s their offensive identity.
Air raid offenses play fast, incomplete passes stop the clock, and more plays equal more scoring opportunities. The Bearkats quietly went 3-1 to the over this season, scoring 20 at Hawaii, 21 against UNLV, and 24 in their opener vs WJU.
Yes, they got blanked 55-0 by Texas last weekend, but that skews their season averages. Against comparable competition, they’ve moved the ball. The total opened at 51.5 and got bet up to 53.5 for good reason.
Sam Houston opened as 2.5-point favorites before the line was bet down to 1.5. That movement signals sharp money backing the Aggies’ home-field advantage, where they’ve been dominant defensively.
The total climbed from 51.5 to 53.5 as bettors recognized the defensive liabilities on both sides. If you’re targeting the over, Fanatics offers the best line at 53 points even, with equal -110 juice. In our CFB public betting splits, 74% of the handle is on the Over with only 51% of bets (sharp money indication).
Odds as of October 2. Grab a Fanatics Sportsbook promo code to bet on Thursday night college football.
Logan Fife’s passing yards prop sits at 265.5, which feels low given Sam Houston’s pass defense. Fife averages 254.3 yards per game and faces a secondary that allows 321.8 per contest. The Bearkats also surrender nine yards per attempt.
New Mexico State leans on Fife because they have no run game. He’s attempted 146 passes through four games, accounting for over 90% of their offensive yardage. With the Aggies likely playing from behind, expect heavy volume.
Fife has cleared 250 yards in three straight games, hitting 262 against Tulsa, 283 against Louisiana Tech and 255 versus New Mexico last time out. All those defenses are better than what Sam Houston is trotting out, meaning we should see a solid increase in Fife’s air yardage tonight.
The Bearkats generate minimal pass rush with just seven sacks in four games. New Mexico State has allowed 14 sacks this season, but Fife should have time in the pocket Thursday. His receivers Donovan Faupel (19 catches), PJ Johnson (13), and tight end Gavin Harris (15) have established rapport.
Sam Houston’s corners have been torched repeatedly. They allowed UNLV to throw for 249 yards and Hawaii to hit 294 – two mediocre passing offenses at best. Fife has the arm talent to exploit single coverage and find his playmakers downfield against this overmatched secondary.
PJ Johnson offers the best value in the touchdown market at +120. He’s a primary target for Fife in the red zone and faces a Sam Houston defense that’s allowed 11 passing touchdowns this season.
Johnson has 13 receptions through four games and should see heavy volume against this defense. The Bearkats rank 121st in pass coverage per PFF and have been carved up through the air repeatedly.
New Mexico State scored 21 on Tulsa at home and 20 against New Mexico on the road. With Fife throwing nearly 40 times per game, someone in this receiving corps will find the end zone. Johnson at plus-money is worth a shot.
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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