Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky Prediction, Picks & Odds for College Football Week 0

• Western Kentucky is a 10.5-point home favorite over Sam Houston in Week 0 action on Saturday
• The Hilltoppers ranked 96th in total defense last season
• Keep reading for my Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky prediction and picks, plus the odds for this matchup

Saturday’s Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky matchup pits a pair of programs coming off Bowl seasons, who look nothing like they did a year ago.

Both the Bearkats and Hilltoppers underwent significant changes this offseason, and online sportsbooks are expecting Western Kentucky to be able to adapt more quickly. They’ve listed the Hilltoppers as sizeable favorites in the college football odds, a decision I completely disagree with.

Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky Odds

Western Kentucky is currently favored by 10.5-points, and -420 on the moneyline. Sam Houston comes back as a +320 underdog, in a contest with a total of 61.5.

Per the college football public betting trends, sharp action appears to be fading WKU as well. 62.9% of the spread tickets are backing the Hilltoppers, but that action represents only 48.6% of the handle. That means those who bet biggest like the underdog.

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Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky Prediction

• Sam Houston (+10.5)

The Bearkats are welcoming back former OC Phil Longo as their new head coach. Longo was the FCS coordinator of the year when he was with Sam Houston nine years ago, and was the OC for several high-powered Ole Miss and North Carolina teams most recently. He’s set to add tempo and more vertical passing to the team this season, and will lean heavily on returning QB Hunter Watson.

Watson is a legit dual-threat option, with 100+ yard rushing upside. He led the team in rushing scores in 2024, and is the leading returning rusher from a season ago. Watson is working with an almost entirely new set of skill position players, meaning he could earn a few more carries early on. The over on his 47.5-yard rushing prop is extremely enticing, especially given the state of the Western Kentucky defense.

The Hilltoppers lost their top-12 tacklers from last year’s team that ranked 96th in total defense, and 129th against the run. Western Kentucky added over 40 players in the portal this offseason, and I expect that lack of continuity to bite them. I’m predicting they struggle to stop Watson both on the ground and through the air.

Watson will need to put up big numbers to keep this game close, because the Bearkats defense is expected to face serious regression. They were 15th in total defense in 2024, but lost every defensive starter from their 10-win team.

The Hilltoppers also have a new look on offense, but the transition on that side of the ball should be smoother. New OC Rick Bowie brings his high-octane offense from Abilene Christian, along with his quarterback, Maverick McIvor. You won’t find the senior QB listed in the Heisman Trophy odds, but he did throw for over 3,800 yards and 30 TD last season, with a turnover-worthy play rate of less than 2%.

Western Kentucky also added a new playmaker on the outside in wideout Matthew Henry, who racked up 62 catches and 1,100 yards last season at Western Illinois.

I’m predicting that the Hilltoppers will find their fair share of success on offense, but that their defense simply isn’t good enough to help build and protect a double-digit cushion.

Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky Picks

• Hunter Watson Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
• Qua’Vez Humphreys Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

As for my other Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky picks, I’ll be targeting the over on Watson’s rushing yards and also the over on Qua’Vez Humphreys’ receiving yards. Humphreys is one of the few returning weapons in the passing game for Watson and will be relied on heavily.

Western Kentucky 2024 Defensive Stats

He averaged over 19 yards per catch last season, and will be the biggest benefactor of Longo’s deep passing attack. It also doesn’t hurt that the Hilltoppers allowed 13+ yards per reception in 2024, and are expected to be worse in the secondary this season.