San Diego State vs Nevada Odds, Picks & Predictions for October 11th

• Nevada hosts San Diego State on Saturday Night 
• The Wolf Pack enter with a 1-4 record, while the Aztecs sit at 4-1
• See our San Diego State vs Nevada Odds, Picks & Predictions for October 11th

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Out in the Mountain West, Nevada will look to snap a three-game losing streak when it hosts San Diego State, which enters riding a three-game win streak.

Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET at Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nevada, with coverage on CBS.

The boys are ready to roll 🎲#AztecFAST 🍢 x #BeTheA1pha 🐺 x #TheClimb 📈 pic.twitter.com/2YB4ddmnlI

— San Diego State Football (@AztecFB) October 11, 2025

What’s the best way to approach this game? We’ll tell you with our San Diego State vs Nevada odds, picks and predictions for October 11th. 

San Diego State vs Nevada Odds

The Aztecs opened as low as 5.5-point favorites, with the total set around 42.5. While a few shops have moved to -7.5, most of the market has settled with San Diego State laying -7. The total has remained steady at 42.5.

San Diego State hasn’t just been winning – it’s been covering convincingly. On their way to a 4-1 ATS record, the Aztecs covered as 4.5-point favorites last week against Colorado State, won outright 34-0 over Cal despite being 14-point underdogs, and easily covered -19.5 in their season opener vs. Stony Brook.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:15 AM ET.

Even their 6-3 win at Northern Illinois, while not flashy, resulted in a cover as two-point favorites. Their lone ATS loss came in their only defeat of the season, a 36-13 setback at Western Kentucky as 2.5-point underdogs.

Nevada, on the other hand, hasn’t been as kind to bettors. The Wolf Pack enter 2-3 ATS and 1-4 straight up. Given that contrast, it’s no surprise to see the betting market leaning heavily toward the favorite in this matchup.

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San Diego State vs Nevada Picks & Predictions

Nevada may end up being one of the worst teams in college football – at least that’s what the metrics suggest. The Wolf Pack rank 136th in offensive EPA per play and 106th in defensive success rate allowed.

Their defense has shown some promise, though. Outside of the season opener, when Penn State dropped 46 on them, the most they’ve allowed in a game was 31 points at Western Kentucky. No other opponent has scored more than 20.

Nevada’s secondary has actually held up reasonably well, ranking 43rd in EPA per pass play allowed. The real issue comes against the run, where they sit 116th in rush success rate and 126th in rush EPA per play allowed – one of the weakest marks in the country.

That’s an area San Diego State can exploit. The Aztecs have been more effective on the ground (57th in rush EPA) than through the air (85th in pass EPA).

San Diego State’s starting tailback, Lucky Sutton, should feel true to his name this week. He’ll feel very lucky to face a Wolf Pack defense that’s been shredded on the ground, and should be poised for another big outing. He’s rushed for 450 yards on 5.1 yards per carry with five touchdowns this season, and this matchup should give him plenty of chances to pad those stats further on Saturday night. 

Lucky Sutton Appreciation Post:
3 Quarters
22 Rush Attempts
100 Rush Yards
2 Rush TDS#AztecFAST 🍢 x #BeTheA1pha 📷 x #TheClimb 📷 📈

📺: @MountainWest pic.twitter.com/8JpBX8mXlE

— San Diego State Football (@AztecFB) August 29, 2025

It’s not just the Aztec backfield that should be eager to exploit Nevada’s weaknesses – the San Diego State defense is built to dominate, too. The Aztecs rank 10th in defensive success rate and 14th in EPA per play allowed, and given how inept this Wolf Pack offense has been, it wouldn’t be surprising if they’re held to single digits.

San Diego State holds the edge in nearly every meaningful category, and laying -7 with the Aztecs feels like a strong play in this matchup.

Best Bet: San Diego State -7 (-110)