San Jose State vs Utah State Prediction, Prop Picks & Closing Line – Friday Mountain West Showdown

• Utah State is a 4-point home favorite over San Jose State in Friday night’s Mountain West showdown
• The Spartans have dropped three straight road games this season, while the Aggies are elite at home
• Check out my final San Jose State vs Utah State prediction, prop picks and closing line for Oct. 17

Mountain West football takes over Friday night when San Jose State (2-4, 1-1 MW) heads to Logan to take on Utah State (3-3, 1-1 MW).

Kickoff is at 9:00 pm ET from Maverik Stadium on CBS Sports Network. Weather forecasts show 52 degrees with 16 mph winds that could impact both passing games. Utah State has dominated at home this year, going 3-0, while San Jose State hasn’t won a road game yet.

The line movement here tells the story. Sharp money hammered the total from 64.5 down to 61.5, while the spread ticked from Utah State -3.5 to -4.

San Jose State vs Utah State Prediction

That three-point drop on the total caught my attention immediately. San Jose State has serious fourth-quarter problems, getting outscored 48-9 in the final frame over their last three games. You read that right. Nine total points in three fourth quarters combined.

The Spartans blew a 28-14 halftime lead at Wyoming last week. They’ve now lost three straight on the road after opening the season with covers at Texas and Stanford. Walker Eget threw four first-half touchdowns to Danny Scudero against Wyoming, then the offense completely stalled.

Both Eget and Scudero carry questionable tags heading into Friday. Even if they play, the short week after traveling back from Laramie won’t help their preparation. San Jose State ranks 95th in scoring offense at just 24.0 points per game.

Utah State quarterback Bryson Barnes brings a different dynamic. He’s thrown 12 touchdowns against two interceptions while adding 12 rushing scores. The Spartans defense allows 292.7 passing yards per game, ranking 128th nationally. They’ve also surrendered 419.5 total yards per contest.

But Utah State’s defense has problems too. They gave up 413 passing yards to Hawaii last week and 740 total passing yards over their last two games. The Aggies allow 32.7 points per game, ranking 125th nationally.

So why take the under? Those 16 mph winds are a good place to start. Both teams rely on the passing game, with San Jose State throwing for 309 yards per game and Utah State at 254.7. Wind disrupts timing routes and deep balls.

The home team has won 10 straight meetings in this series. Utah State is 5-1 ATS this season and 3-0 straight up at home, outscoring opponents 125-53 in Logan. San Jose State averages just 100.8 rushing yards per game, so if the passing game struggles in the wind, they have no Plan B.

I predict Utah State controls this one at home. Look for Barnes and Miles Davis to work the ground game while the Spartans struggle to sustain drives. I’m projecting fourth-quarter fatigue hits San Jose State again after the altitude and travel take their toll.

Prediction: Utah State 31, San Jose State 24.

• Pick: Under 61.5 points (-109)

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San Jose State vs Utah State Prop Picks

Barnes going over 47.5 rushing yards is the best prop here. He’s taken 22 sacks this season, forcing him to scramble regularly. Add his 12 rushing touchdowns, and you get a quarterback who runs often, especially near the goal line.

The Utah State offensive line has struggled in pass protection. When things break down, Barnes scrambles. San Jose State ranks 99th in defensive success rate and will focus on stopping the pass after Barnes threw for 287 against McNeese and had big games against Vanderbilt and Air Force.

Braden Pegan leads Utah State with 453 receiving yards and four touchdowns. He faces a San Jose State secondary allowing 292.7 passing yards per game. The Spartans rank 129th defending yards per completion. Pegan averages 75.5 yards per game, right at this number, but the matchup favors going over.

Brady Boyd provides another receiving option worth considering. He’s second on the team with 386 yards and gets consistent targets from Barnes. Against a defense that just gave up four touchdown passes in one half, both Utah State receivers should produce.

The wind could actually help these props. Short and intermediate routes become more important in windy conditions. Both Pegan and Boyd excel in the intermediate passing game, where Barnes is most accurate.

San Jose State vs Utah State Closing Line

Utah State opened at -3.5 before the number moved to -4. The moneyline sits at -187 for the Aggies with San Jose State at +155. That total plummeted from 64.5 to 61.5 after sharp bettors pounded the under.

The college football public betting splits reveal interesting patterns. While 52% of spread bets back Utah State, 79% of moneyline tickets favor the Aggies straight up. The total shows 52% of bets on the over despite professional money driving it down.

Odds as of October 17th at consensus sportsbooks. Find the best college football betting apps for San Jose State vs Utah State.