Sharp Week 1 College Football Bets Based on Money Percentages

• Sharp money appears to be backing Texas and LSU as road underdogs in college football Week 1
• Public bettors can’t resist heavy CFB favorites like Oklahoma State and Alabama
• Extreme longshots are getting surprising sharp action despite minimal ticket counts

College football Week 1 features the most loaded opening weekend in recent memory, and the sharp vs. public betting splits are already showing us where the big money landed. Three top-10 matchups have created massive betting handles, with clear discrepancies between tickets and money.

Texas and LSU are attracting what looks like sharp action as road underdogs, while the public keeps laying huge numbers with favorites. The biggest tell? When 99% of tickets are on one side, but the money tells a different story.

Sharp CFB Week 1 Bets (Money Percentages)

Data from our college football public betting splits page on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. Percentages provided by top-rated sportsbooks.

Big Money Hits Texas

One of the sharpest-looking CFB plays of Week 1 might be Texas catching points at Ohio State. The Buckeyes opened as 1.5 to 2.5-point favorites, but the betting splits suggest something interesting.

Texas is getting 63% of spread tickets but 71% of the handle. The moneyline splits are even more dramatic – only 34% of bets on the Longhorns, but 77% of the money. That typically indicates professional money on the road dogs.

Arch Manning makes his first college football road start in Columbus, but the betting market doesn’t seem concerned. Texas would be the first top-ranked team to be an underdog in Week 1 since 1978, and bigger bettors appear to see value in that line.

Ohio State is breaking in Julian Sayin at quarterback while Texas returns both coordinators. When college football betting shows this kind of money/ticket split, it usually means something.

LSU Gets Professional Backing

LSU is another road dog attracting what looks like sharp CFB money. The purple and yellow are pulling 61% of tickets but 73% of the handle at +4. That 12-point differential suggests bigger bettors like LSU getting points.

Brian Kelly is 0-3 in Week 1 showdowns, losing to Florida State twice and USC last year. But the college football betting market ignores narratives. Garrett Nussmeier versus Cade Klubnik is almost even at quarterback, making four points in Death Valley feel generous.

The line has bounced between 3.5 and 4, with sharps seemingly waiting for the better number. When professional money keeps hitting a road underdog in a marquee CFB matchup, it’s worth noting.

Extreme Longshots Tell a Story

The wildest Week 1 action comes on massive CFB underdogs. Marshall at +2500 against Georgia shows just 2% of moneyline tickets but an incredible 92% of the money – a 90-point differential.

New Mexico +3000 against Michigan follows similarly, with 7% of tickets but 89% of handle. These aren’t serious win expectations – they’re value plays where risking small amounts for massive college football payouts makes mathematical sense.

Charlotte getting 5.5 points against App State shows the biggest spread differential, with 52% of tickets but 82% of money. When half the bets account for over 80% of the cash in CFB betting, that usually indicates professional action.

Public Pounds CFB Favorites

The square plays are obvious in college football Week 1. Purdue -17 against Ball State and Penn State -42.5 versus Nevada both show 98% of tickets and 100% of money – complete public consensus.

Oklahoma State -20 against UT Martin gets 82% of tickets and 99% of money Thursday. When the Cowboys see just 18% of tickets on their opponent but only 2% of money, that’s about as lopsided as CFB betting gets.

Alabama -11.5 over Florida State pulls 78% of tickets and 85% of handle despite the line dropping from 13.5. That reverse line movement could suggest early sharp action forced an adjustment.

CFB Sharp Total Bets (Money Percentages)

College football unders are attracting what looks like sharp money despite minimal public support. Toledo/Kentucky Under 48.5 gets just 23% of tickets but 79% of handle – a 56-point differential.

The public can’t resist low totals in CFB, though. Northwestern/Tulane Over 45.5 has 93% of tickets and 92% of money. When both align this heavily on an over, it often sails past.

Notre Dame at Miami Under 49.5 Sunday night shows another potential sharp play with just 31% of tickets but 73% of money. Both teams have new quarterbacks, which typically means lower college football scoring early.

Where The CFB Sharp Money Is Flowing

Based on college football betting handle vs. ticket disparities, here’s what appears to be sharp action for Week 1:

Possible Sharp CFB Plays:
• Charlotte +5.5 (52% tickets, 82% handle)
• LSU +4 (61% tickets, 73% handle)
• Texas +2.5 (63% tickets, 71% handle)
• Toledo/Kentucky Under 48.5 (23% tickets, 79% handle)
• Marshall ML +2500 (2% tickets, 92% handle)

Heavy Public CFB Action:
• Oklahoma State -20 (82% tickets, 99% handle)
• Purdue -17 (98% tickets, 100% handle)
• Penn State -42.5 (98% tickets, 100% handle)
• Northwestern/Tulane Over 45.5 (93% tickets, 92% handle)

The patterns suggest bigger college football bettors are looking at road dogs in marquee games, some unders with new quarterbacks, and extreme longshots for value. Public money typically chases perceived easy wins. The splits show where the value might be hiding in CFB Week 1.