SMU vs Penn State Early Prediction, Pick & Odds – College Football Playoffs Round 1

• We’ve made our early SMU vs Penn State prediction for the College Football Playoff first-round
• The latest CFP odds favor the Nittany Lions by more than a touchdown at home
• Read below for our SMU vs Penn State prediction, pick, and odds

The stage is set for an enticing College Football Playoff first-round matchup between SMU and Penn State. These conference runner-ups will square off on Saturday, December 21, 2024, at noon ET in the iconic Beaver Stadium.

Oddsmakers are heavily leaning toward the Nittany Lions, despite James Franklin’s poor track record in big games. The electric home playoff atmosphere in Happy Valley could make all the difference in a showdown that will be broadcast on TNT/Max.

Let’s break down the early college football bowl betting odds and provide our SMU vs Penn State prediction.

SMU vs Penn State Odds

The books have Penn State as an 8.5-point favorite here. That translates to about a 77% chance of a Nittany Lions win. SMU sits as a +270 underdog, giving them roughly a 27% shot at pulling off the upset.

With the total set at 54 points, oddsmakers are expecting these offenses to put up some fireworks.

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Odds as of Dec. 10, 2024, at ESPN Sportsbook. Grab the ESPN Bet promo or browse other top sports betting sites.

Mustangs Betting Analysis

SMU rolls into this one at 11-2, fresh off a heartbreaking 34-31 loss to Clemson in the ACC title game. QB Kevin Jennings has been the real deal since taking over, going 9-1 as the starter. He’s a true dual-threat weapon, putting up 379 yards and 5 TDs on the ground while throwing for 3,050 yards with 22 TDs and eight picks.

The Mustangs love to pound the rock. They rank 17th in the country in both carries (506) and rushing touchdowns (29).

Running back Brendon Smith has been a beast, racking up 1,270 yards and 14 scores on 217 carries. But they’ll have their work cut out for them against Penn State’s stout run D, which gives up just 103.6 yards per game.

What really impressed me about SMU was their grit in the ACC Championship. They fell behind early but never quit. Jennings showed some serious poise, leading multiple scoring drives to keep them in it. They’ll need that same mental toughness when they walk into what’s sure to be a rowdy Beaver Stadium.

Nittany Lions Betting Analysis

Penn State comes in at 11-2, with their only losses against teams that made the playoff. Their defense has been flat-out nasty all year. They rank eighth in scoring D (16.4 PPG), ninth against the run (103.6 YPG), and 16th against the pass (178.5 YPG).

The Lions’ offense really showed up in the Big Ten title game, hanging 518 yards on a solid Oregon defense. QB Drew Allar has grown up before our eyes this season, putting together a solid stat line (224/324, 2894 yards, 21 TDs, 7 INTs) while making plays with his legs.

Drew Allar had a couple of really impressive throws climbing the pocket, adjusting his arm slot and hitting back side routes for Penn State against Oregon. First throw is just insane, a must-have throw while he's escaping a sack.

Second throw: beautifully layered to Warren. pic.twitter.com/QaokimhnvN

— Devin Jackson (@RealD_Jackson) December 9, 2024

Tyler Warren has turned into a monster at tight end, hauling in 88 balls for 1,062 yards and six scores. Not many players improved their draft stock more this season than PSU’s standout tight end.

The elephant in the room? James Franklin’s record in big games. He’s just 1-4 against AP Top 10 teams and has dropped 11 straight against such opponents. Getting over that hump with a playoff win would be huge for this program.

Don’t sleep on the home-field edge here. December in Happy Valley is no joke. If the weather turns nasty, it could really throw off an SMU team that’s used to playing in the Dallas heat.

SMU vs Penn State Early Prediction

SMU’s had a great run and showed tons of fight in the ACC title game. However, Penn State’s overall talent, shutdown defense, and home-field advantage should be too much here. Look for the Nittany Lions to control the pace and grind out a win.

In terms of my ATS prediction, the spread feels about right to me. Penn State has the tools to cover, but SMU’s proven they can hang with anyone. This should be a battle. Keep an eye on the weather forecast and injury updates as we get closer to kickoff – those factors could swing things either way.

I’m leaning toward Penn State -8.5, especially if the weather forecast projections hold. Pinnacle, one of the sharpest bookmakers in the world, has already bumped this line up to -9. If you like the home team here, I’d lock in PSU -8.5 while you can.

Early Lean:

• Penn State -8.5 (-110)