South Dakota vs Montana Prediction, Spread & Best Bets – FCS Playoffs Quarterfinals

• No. 3 Montana is a 7-point home favorite over No. 11 South Dakota in Saturday’s FCS Quarterfinal
• Montana boasts the highest scoring offense left in the postseason, averaging 41.5 points per game
• See my South Dakota vs Montana prediction, plus the spread and my best bets below

Dating back to 2011, only four teams have won the FCS title. Two of those teams now reside in the FBS (Sam Houston and James Madison), while the other two (North Dakota State and South Dakota State) have already been eliminated from this year’s postseason.

That leaves the door wide open for No. 3 Montana (12-1), who hasn’t won the championship since 2001. Online sportsbooks love their chances of advancing to the final four, pegging them as big favorites in Saturday’s FCS Quarterfinal versus South Dakota (10-4).

Kickoff is set for 3:30 pm ET from Washington-Grizzly Stadium, in Missoula, MT, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my South Dakota vs Montana prediction, plus the spread and my best bets for the FCS Playoffs Quarterfinals.

South Dakota vs Montana Prediction and Best Bets

We’re taking a break this week from the heavy hitters in the CFP bracket, as those matchups don’t start until next week. Neither South Dakota or Montana has been truly tested yet this postseason. The Coyotes rolled over Mercer and Drake in the opening two rounds, while the Grizzlies routed South Dakota State in their playoff opener.

Montana put up 50 points and 552 yards or offense in their latest outing, winning by double-figures for the ninth time in 13 games this season. They enter play averaging 41.5 points and 466.1 yards of offense per game, ripping off 6.7 yards per play.

Quarterback Keali’i Ah Yat ranks third in the league in passing yards and TD, while running back and Big Sky offensive player of the year Eli Gilman has 19 TD on the ground, good for fifth most in the nation.

The offense is balanced and explosive, and they protect the football. The Grizzlies average fewer than one turnover per game, and convert 91% of their red zone trips into points.

Montana Offensive Stats

If there’s a weakness on Montana, it’s on the defensive side of the ball, but that unit is by no means soft. The Grizzlies yield 23.9 points per game, but a lot of that production comes when they’ve already built a massive lead. They generate turnovers at an elite rate (1.8 per game) and get to the quarterback. Montana has recorded 30 sacks so far, with five different rushers amassing at least three.

As for South Dakota, it feels like they’re playing with house money. The Coyotes barely squeaked out a playoff berth, but once they entered the dance, they’ve looked strong. They’ve outscored their two opponents 75-17, and are fresh off a shutout.

QB Aidan Bouman threw 2 TD last time out versus Mercer, while the rushing attack led by L.J. Phillips scampered for 309 yards and 4 scores. They’ve shown the capacity to put up big numbers, but what worries me in this matchup is their defense.

Yes, they’ve been great over the last two weeks, but that was against offenses that rank outside the top-10. On three separate occasions this season South Dakota has yielded 50+ points, and none of those opponents were as efficient or as high-powered as the Grizzlies.

FCS Champion – Last 5 Years

Montana’s offense has been impossible to stop all season, and this is one of their best shots at an FCS title since their last triumph. They’ve lost just one playoff game in the last 10 years to someone other than North Dakota State, South Dakota State or James Madison, and they haven’t lost a home postseason date since 2013. Most advanced projection systems, like SP+, have the Grizzlies favored by 8+ points, so I’ll gladly back them at -7.

South Dakota vs Montana Spread

The best book to bet them at currently is DraftKings, who are offering a -7 line at -110 odds. The Grizzlies are -300 moneyline favorites, while South Dakota comes back as +260 underdogs. Total-wise, the line sits at 59.5, a number that Montana games routinely flirt with.

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Odds as of Dec. 12 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the DraftKings promo code to bet on the FCS Playoffs

Per the college football public betting trends, 7 of the Grizzlies 13 games have gone over 59.5, while three others have landed on exactly 59 points.