Stanford vs BYU Prediction, Pick & Odds for Saturday Night Football

• The BYU Cougars are massive 20.5-point home favorites against Stanford in late-night Saturday action
• True freshman Bear Bachmeier makes his second career start for BYU after leaving Stanford’s program
• Read below for Stanford vs BYU prediction, pick and odds for Saturday Night football

The late-night window brings a mismatch on paper when the Stanford Cardinal visit the BYU Cougars for Saturday’s college football nightcap in Provo.

The odds have ballooned throughout the week, with the spread jumping from BYU -17.5 to -20.5 as sharp money pours in on the home favorite.

Kickoff is set for 10:15pm ET from LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

See below for the latest Stanford vs BYU odds, preview and my betting prediction for Saturday night CFB.

Stanford vs BYU Odds

The Cougars opened at -17.5 and have been bet up three full points. The total has plummeted from 49.5 to 44.5, indicating sharp money expects a defensive struggle from Stanford’s perspective.

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Odds as of September 6 at 6 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best BetMGM bonus code before placing a bet on Saturday night CFB.

Cardinal Offense Sputters in Season Opener

Stanford stumbled out of the gate with a 23-20 loss at Hawaii, blowing a late lead after quarterback Ben Gulbranson threw a crucial interception. The Oregon State transfer finished 15-of-30 for just 109 yards in his Cardinal debut.

The passing game was anemic, averaging 3.6 yards per attempt against a Hawaii defense that’s far from elite. Stanford managed just 286 total yards on 3.9 yards per play, numbers that don’t bode well against a BYU defense that held Portland State to 51 total yards.

The lone bright spot was Micah Ford’s 113 rushing yards, but the Cardinal controlled possession for over 36 minutes trying to keep Hawaii’s offense off the field. That strategy won’t work when you’re facing a 20-point deficit.

Under interim coach Frank Reich, Stanford appears to be in rebuild mode. The program lost its top four pass-catchers to the transfer portal and NFL, leaving Wisconsin transfer CJ Williams to lead an inexperienced receiving corps.

Bachmeier’s Revenge Game Against Former School

The storyline writes itself. Bear Bachmeier was committed to Stanford, and Andrew Luck’s staff worked to get him enrolled early and cleared to play. Then BYU’s quarterback job opened up, and Bachmeier bolted for Provo.

His debut couldn’t have gone better: 7-of-11 for 97 yards and three passing touchdowns, plus 32 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground. He became the first FBS player since Antwaan Randle El in 1998 to record three passing and two rushing touchdowns in his debut.

The Cougars ran for 468 yards on 9.75 yards per carry against Portland State. LJ Martin led the charge with 131 yards on just eight carries, and he happens to be another former Stanford commit who chose BYU instead.

BYU’s defense was suffocating, allowing negative-five rushing yards and holding Portland State to 1.2 yards per play. Defensive coordinator Jay Hill has built a unit that ranked 19th in scoring defense and 20th in pass defense last season.

Stanford vs BYU Prediction

• Pick: BYU -20.5 (-112 at BetMGM)

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This line keeps climbing, and I’m still not scared off. BYU checks every box you want when laying big chalk at home. Stanford’s offense couldn’t move the ball against Hawaii, and now they face a Cougars defense that just pitched a shutout while allowing 51 total yards.

The revenge game narrative adds fuel to the fire. Bachmeier and Martin both spurned Stanford for BYU, and they’ll be motivated to make their former school regret letting them go. Expect Stanford to have extra blitz packages ready for Bachmeier, but the true freshman showed poise in his debut.

LaVell Edwards Stadium is one of college football’s toughest venues. BYU is 7-5-1 ATS at home since the start of 2023, with five wins by 21-plus points. Stanford is 9-15-1 ATS overall in that span, including four road losses by 21 or more.

The total has crashed from 49.5 to 44.5, and I agree with the sharp money there too. Stanford will try to shorten the game and limit possessions, while BYU’s defense should dominate. This has under written all over it.

Give me the Cougars to cover the big number and the under to cash as Stanford struggles to reach double digits.