Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State Prediction, Preview, Line & How to Watch FCS Quarterfinals

• 7-seed Stephen F. Austin makes the trek north to face 2-seed Montana State Friday night in the FCS Quarterfinals at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN
• Both teams have won 11 in a row, with Montana State slightly less than a two-touchdown favorite as the highest-seeded team left in the bracket
• Continue reading for my Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State prediction, preview, line, and how to watch this FCS Quarterfinal showdown

The Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin (11-2; 8-5 ATS) battle Montana State (11-2; 7-6 ATS) for a spot in the FCS semifinals Friday night at Bobcat Stadium in Bozeman.

Yes, it will be cold, but not as bad as it could be. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the upper 30s around kickoff.

I’ll heat up your wallet with my Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State prediction and pick for this FCS Quarterfinals matchup.

Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State Prediction

• Stephen F. Austin +14 (-105 at Fanatics)
• Under 52.5 (-110 at Fanatics)

I’m picking Montana State to win straight up in my Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State prediction. They’re 17-4 all-time at Bobcat Stadium, but I think it’s close, and I just can’t see the Bobcats covering. Montana State only beat Yale by a TD in the second round.

But I love the under tonight. Even though it won’t be freezing cold, it will be windy. That impacts the passing game and the kicking game.

Montana State quarterback Justin Lamson completes over 70 percent of his passes and has thrown for 2,437 yards and 20 scores. This is his fourth school. You may remember him from Syracuse and Stanford (he also spent a minute at Bowling Green). Montana State’s defense only allows 16.8 points a game and has 14 picks.

They have an excellent ground game—both Julian Davis and Adam Jones are close to 1,000 yards. Montana State will be tough to beat at home.

Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State Preview

These are two teams with defensive playmakers. Montana State defensive back Caden Dowler was the Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year and has five picks in his last four games. His twin brother Taco, Taco Dowler, runs back kicks.

The Lumberjacks rank third in FCS against the run, allowing under 88 yards a contest. They lead FCS in tackles for loss with 8.8 a game, and Ky Thomas has 13. SFA punt returner Bugs Mortimer (incredible name) has four punt returns for touchdowns.

Expect there to be some talk about Lumberjacks QB Sam Vidlak. He started his college journey at Oregon State, then Boise State, then played seven games at nearby Montana. He’s also married with a son Mason. His top target is Kylon Harris, who averages almost six catches a game.

The winner of tonight’s game faces the winner of Montana vs. South Dakota. Montana State beat Montana 31-28 in November.

Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State Line

Fanatics has the Bobcats as 14-point favorites, but DraftKings and FanDuel list the Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State line at 13.5. There’s slightly better moneyline value on SFA at DraftKings where they are +410. The total is consistent at 52.5 everywhere I looked.

Montana State is 3-2 in its last five games against the spread, and its last two games have hit the under. SFA is also 3-2 in its last five games against the number, with four of its last five games hitting the over.

Odds as of Friday morning from College Football betting apps. Check out the best sportsbook promos for the FCS Playoffs.

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Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State How to Watch FCS Quarterfinals

Aside from Army-Navy (bet the under) Saturday night, the college football slate this weekend is just the lower-level games, including the four FCS Quarterfinals. Tonight in Montana, Montana State hosts Stephen F. Austin, and the game will be broadcast on ESPN with a 9 p.m. ET start.