TCU vs BYU Prediction, Expert Pick & Line for Saturday Night College Football

• BYU is a 3-point favorite over TCU in Saturday night college football Big 12 action
• The Horned Frogs rank 66th in scoring defense and 96th in opponent red zone scoring percentage
• See below for my TCU vs BYU prediction and expert pick, plus the latest betting lines

As it stands today, #12 BYU (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) is the last team in the College Football Playoff. They cannot afford another loss if they want to remain among the final 12, and they’ll face a stiff test tonight versus TCU (6-3, 3-3 Big 12). Online sportsbooks are siding with the Cougars in the college football odds, but the market has slowly been moving against them throughout the week.

Kickoff for this Big 12 showdown is scheduled for 10:15 pm ET from LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, UT, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my TCU vs BYU prediction and expert pick, plus the latest betting lines.

TCU vs BYU Prediction and Expert Pick

This game opened BYU -4.5, but now sits at -3. I understand the argument for grabbing the Horned Frogs early, but now that we’re sitting at just a field goal spread, the value has swung back to the Cougars.

The biggest difference between these two teams lies in defense. BYU boasts a top-20 scoring defense and are allowing just 5.0 yards per play. They do an excellent job of squashing enemy drives on third and fourth down, and when they do face red zone situations, only nine teams do a better job of keeping opponents off the scoresheet.

The Cougars are stout against the run, and they generate pressure. They’re top-40 in sack percentage and force turnovers at a top-16 rate.

TCU’s defense, on the other hand, can be exploited. The Horned Frogs are allowing 32 points per game and are vulnerable to explosives, especially in pass defense. TCU struggles to generate pressure, and they don’t create Havoc. That’s trouble against BYU, who can wear you down with their inside zone and duo running scheme, and spam you with play action crossers once your linebackers start to bite.

TCU Defensive Stats

Cougars QB Bear Bachmeier does an excellent job of protecting the football and can beat you with his arm or his legs. He’s thrown 12 TDs against only four picks, adding nine rushing scores. He’s got a home run threat in the backfield in LJ Martin, and a trio of receivers who average over 12 yards per catch.

The Horned Frogs’ offense, meanwhile, is their strength, but it’s one-dimensional and entirely too predictable. TCU lives on tempo and RPOs, and at times, Josh Hoover has looked like Heisman Trophy odds candidate. However, the junior pivot is turnover-prone and gives you nothing with his legs.

Hoover and co. are built to play from ahead, but when they fall behind, like I’m expecting they will tonight, the wheels can come off. Every snap will eventually be a passing down, and that’s when BYU can pin its ears back and attack. The Cougars have a massive advantage in the trenches, and if there’s no credible threat of a rushing attack, they should be able to cave the Horned Frogs’ line in and get after Hoover.

BYU is in the CFP odds conversation for a reason, and this team is too talented on both sides of the ball to let a home game this late in the season turn into a loss. Lay the 3 points with the Cougars.

TCU vs BYU Betting Line

The best book to bet BYU -3 is over at DraftKings. They’re offering that number at -112 odds, while most other books have it juiced much higher.

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Total-wise, the over/under sits at 50.5, and it’s worth noting that five of TCU’s last seven games have failed to clear the total per the college football public betting trends.