Skip to content

Tennessee vs Alabama Final Prediction & Pick – Best Bet for Third Saturday of October

Brady Trettenero

By Brady Trettenero in College Football

Published:


Oct 11, 2025; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joey Aguilar (6) looks to pass the ball against the Arkansas Razorbacks during the second half at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images
  • Alabama sits as a 9.5-point home favorite for the Third Saturday in October rivalry
  • Tennessee’s explosive offense averaging 48.2 PPG faces Alabama’s elite defense allowing just 17.3
  • See below for my Tennessee vs Alabama pick and final prediction for this SEC showdown

One of college football’s best rivalries takes center stage Saturday night with massive playoff implications. Tennessee (5-1) heads to Tuscaloosa to face #6 Alabama (5-1) in what could be a season-defining game for both programs.

The game kicks off at 7:30pm ET from Bryant-Denny Stadium with ABC on the broadcast. Weather looks perfect with temperatures around 88 degrees and clear skies.

Tennessee vs Alabama Final Prediction & Pick

Sports Betting Dime •

Pick
Odds
HomePointSpread -8
Spread
CFB • Tennessee Volunteers @ Alabama Crimson Tide
-110 on Caesars
SCHEDULED • 10/18/2025
Tally (Win %)
0-0-0 (0%)
Money Meter
$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Betslip #1760815973652-481c-959

Tennessee can absolutely score points. They’re putting up 48.2 per game and Joey Aguilar has been slinging it with 16 touchdown passes. But this Alabama defense is different.

The Tide are giving up 136.5 passing yards per game. Think about that for a second. In today’s college football, that’s almost impossible. They’ve allowed five passing touchdowns total through six games. Against SEC competition, they’ve been even stingier.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s defense has been a liability. They’re surrendering 29.3 points per game and rank 97th against the pass. That’s a massive problem when you face Ty Simpson. The Volunteers are also allowing 66.5% completions, which plays right into Simpson’s hands as he’s completing 71% of his throws.

Matchup Breakdown

CategoryTennesseeAlabama
Scoring Defense29.3 PPG (108th)17.3 PPG (22nd)
QB TD-INT Ratio16-520-1
4th Quarter Defense9.17 PPG (130th)3.50 PPG (16th)

Look at that fourth-quarter defense stat. Tennessee gives up 9.17 points in the final frame while Alabama allows just 3.5. In a close game, which team do you trust to make stops when it matters? I’m taking the team that closes games.

Simpson’s numbers are video game-like. He’s completing 71% of his passes with that ridiculous 20-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His 176 passer rating ranks among the nation’s best. The guy is playing at a Heisman level and gets to face a Tennessee secondary that’s getting torched weekly.

Against Vanderbilt, he threw for 340 yards. Against Georgia on the road, he managed 276 yards and three total touchdowns in a hostile environment.

Tennessee does have that elite pass rush with 26 sacks, best in the country. They’re averaging 4.0 sacks per game. But Alabama’s handled pressure before. They beat Georgia and Missouri on the road, both teams with strong defensive fronts. Plus, Alabama’s offensive line has only allowed 13 sacks all year, showing they can protect when needed.

The running game matchup favors Tennessee slightly. They’re averaging 210.8 yards per game on the ground at 5.3 yards per carry. Alabama’s run defense allows 156.7 yards per contest. But in big games, Alabama has tightened up against the run.

History matters in this rivalry too. Tennessee hasn’t won in Tuscaloosa since 2003. That’s 21 years of coming up short on this field. The head-to-head trends tell the whole story.

TrendRecord
Home Team Last 4 Meetings4-0 ATS
Tennessee at Alabama (Last 7)2-5 ATS
Tennessee vs Alabama (Last 21)6-14-1 ATS
Alabama Home Games36-1 Last 37

Tennessee did win 24-17 last year, but that was in Knoxville. When these teams meet in Tuscaloosa, it’s a different story. Alabama covered a 9-point spread with a 34-20 victory in 2023. The home team dominance in this series is real.

My pick is Alabama to win by double digits. They’ll create a couple turnovers with that plus-8 turnover margin, control the line of scrimmage in the second half, and pull away when Tennessee’s defense wears down.

The Volunteers will make it interesting early with their offense, but Alabama’s defense and Simpson’s efficiency make the difference. I see this as a 34-23 type game where Alabama covers with a few points to spare.

Tennessee vs Alabama Closing Line Movement

Sharp bettors made their presence felt early this week. Alabama opened -12.5 but Tennessee money pushed it down to -9.5. That’s a significant three-point shift crossing key numbers like 10 and 11.

Even bigger movement on the total, which rocketed from 52.5 to 59.5. Seven points! The market clearly expects fireworks with Tennessee’s top-ranked offense meeting Alabama’s efficient attack. The Vols have hit the Over in all but one game this season.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK
Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.
LOCK IN PROMO
CODE: SBD1500
CODE: SBD1500
SIGNUP BONUS
GET $1,500
BACK

BET NOW

Odds as of October 18. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on this SEC rivalry game.

According to college football public betting splits, Alabama is getting heavy public support, yet the line moved toward Tennessee. Classic sharp versus square dynamic. The Under is 8-0 in Alabama’s last eight SEC games, though this total feels appropriately high given both offenses.

  • BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

    USE CODE SBD1500 & GET $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS

  • BET365 SPORTSBOOK

    BET $5 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365

  • FANATICS SPORTSBOOK

    BET $10, GET $100 IN FANCASH + GAMEDAY GUARANTEE

  • DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

    BET $5 & GET $300 IN BONUS BETS IF YOUR BET WINS + 3 MONTHS OF NBA LEAGUE PASS

  • FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

    BET $5 & GET $300 IF YOUR BET WINS

  • CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

    USE CODE SBD20X & BET $1 TO DOUBLE THE WINNINGS ON YOUR FIRST 20 WAGERS!

  • ESPN BET SPORTSBOOK

    USE CODE DIME TO UNLOCK BET $10, GET $100 BONUS & ESPN+

  • DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS).

  • BET365 SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

  • BETMGM SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

Brady Trettenero
Brady Trettenero

Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor

Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

Entertainment NFL NHL NCAAF

Recommended Reading